Related papers: Over-Conservativeness of Variance-Based Efficiency…

Freidlin-Wentzell theory of large deviations can be used to compute the likelihood of extreme or rare events in stochastic dynamical systems via the solution of an optimization problem. The approach gives exponential estimates that often…

In this work we employ importance sampling (IS) techniques to track a small over-threshold probability of a running maximum associated with the solution of a stochastic differential equation (SDE) within the framework of ensemble Kalman…

It is well known that symplectic methods have been rigorously shown to be superior to non-symplectic ones especially in long-time computation, when applied to deterministic Hamiltonian systems. In this paper, we attempt to study the…

Extreme weather events epitomize high cost: to society through their physical impacts, and to computer servers that simulate them to assess risk and advance physical understanding. It costs hundreds of simulation years to sample a few…

Solving decision problems in complex, stochastic environments is often achieved by estimating the expected outcome of decisions via Monte Carlo sampling. However, sampling may overlook rare, but important events, which can severely impact…

We consider Bayesian inference by importance sampling when the likelihood is analytically intractable but can be unbiasedly estimated. We refer to this procedure as importance sampling squared (IS2), as we can often estimate the likelihood…

The idea of rare event sampling is applied to the estimation of the performance of error-correcting codes. The essence of the idea is importance sampling of the pattern of noises in the channel by Multicanonical Monte Carlo, which enables…

In Bayesian inference, we seek to compute information about random variables such as moments or quantiles on the basis of {available data} and prior information. When the distribution of random variables is {intractable}, Monte Carlo (MC)…

Many Bayesian inference problems involve high-dimensional models where the performance of standard importance sampling (IS) methods often degrades rapidly as the dimensionality increases. Classical analyses of IS typically rely on the…

The Adaptive Multilevel Splitting algorithm is a very powerful and versatile iterative method to estimate the probability of rare events, based on an interacting particle systems. In an other article, in a so-called idealized setting, the…

Although many computational methods for rare event sampling exist, this type of calculation is not usually practical for general nonequilibrium conditions, with macroscopically irreversible dynamics and away from both stationary and…

An energy efficient use of large scale sensor networks necessitates activating a subset of possible sensors for estimation at a fusion center. The problem is inherently combinatorial; to this end, a set of iterative, randomized algorithms…

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) in both contextual bandits and reinforcement learning allows one to evaluate novel decision policies without needing to conduct exploration, which is often costly or otherwise infeasible. The problem's importance…

We compute bias, variance, and approximate confidence intervals for the efficiency of a random selection process under various special conditions that occur in practical data analysis. We consider the following cases: a) the number of…

We propose a novel alternative approach to our previous work (Ben Hammouda et al., 2023) to improve the efficiency of Monte Carlo (MC) estimators for rare event probabilities for stochastic reaction networks (SRNs). In the same spirit of…

For many applications, an ensemble of base classifiers is an effective solution. The tuning of its parameters(number of classes, amount of data on which each classifier is to be trained on, etc.) requires G, the generalization error of a…

Diffusion processes with small noise conditioned to reach a target set are considered. The AMS algorithm is a Monte Carlo method that is used to sample such rare events by iteratively simulating clones of the process and selecting…

Causal attribution, which aims to explain why events or behaviors occur, is crucial in causal inference and enhances our understanding of cause-and-effect relationships in scientific research. The probabilities of necessary causation (PN)…

This article provides a critical review of the main methods used to produce conservative estimators of probabilities of rare events, or critical failures, for reliability and certification studies in the broadest sense. These probabilities…

In this work, we develop a multi-fidelity Bayesian experimental design framework to efficiently quantify the extreme-event statistics of an input-to-response (ItR) system with given input probability and expensive function evaluations. The…