Related papers: Pandemic model with data-driven phase detection, a…
Optimizing the impact on the economy of control strategies aiming at containing the spread of COVID-19 is a critical challenge. We use daily new case counts of COVID-19 patients reported by local health administrations from different…
Compartmental models are a tool commonly used in epidemiology for the mathematical modelling of the spread of infectious diseases, with their most popular representative being the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model and its…
Epidemic models describe the evolution of a communicable disease over time. These models are often modified to include the effects of interventions (control measures) such as vaccination, social distancing, school closings etc. Many such…
Stochastic epidemic models which incorporate interactions between space and human mobility are a key tool to inform prioritisation of outbreak control to appropriate locations. However, methods for fitting such models to national-level…
The worldwide spread of COVID-19 has called for fast advancement of new modelling strategies to estimate its unprecedented spread. Here, we introduce a model based on the fundamental SIR equations with a stochastic disorder by a random…
Countries are recording health information on the global spread of COVID-19 using different methods, sometimes changing the rules after a few days. They are all publishing the number of new individuals infected, cured and dead, along with…
We consider here an extended SIR model, including several features of the recent COVID-19 outbreak: in particular the infected and recovered individuals can either be detected (+) or undetected (-) and we also integrate an intensive care…
In this work, we adapt the epidemiological SIR model to study the evolution of the dissemination of COVID-19 in Germany and Brazil (nationally, in the State of Paraiba, and in the City of Campina Grande). We prove the well posedness and the…
Online social media provides a channel for monitoring people's social behaviors and their mental distress. Due to the restrictions imposed by COVID-19 people are increasingly using online social networks to express their feelings.…
In this work, we aim to formalize a novel scientific machine learning framework to reconstruct the hidden dynamics of the transmission rate, whose inaccurate extrapolation can significantly impair the quality of the epidemic forecasts, by…
We propose a deterministic SAIVRD model and a stochastic SARV model of the epidemic COVID-19 involving asymptomatic infections and vaccinations to conduct data forecasts using time-dependent parameters. The forecast by our deterministic…
In this research, we study the propagation patterns of epidemic diseases such as the COVID-19 coronavirus, from a mathematical modeling perspective. The study is based on an extensions of the well-known susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)…
A considerable amount of various types of data have been collected during the COVID-19 pandemic, the analysis and interpretation of which have been indispensable for curbing the spread of the disease. As the pandemic moves to an endemic…
The global spread of pandemics is facilitated by the mobility of populations, transforming localized infections into widespread phenomena. To contain it, timely identification of influential regions that accelerate this process is…
We present a new mathematical model to explicitly capture the effects that the three restriction measures: the lockdown date and duration, social distancing and masks, and, schools and border closing, have in controlling the spread of…
Accurate forecasts of the number of newly infected people during an epidemic are critical for making effective timely decisions. This paper addresses this challenge using the SIMLR model, which incorporates machine learning (ML) into the…
Developing methods to analyse infection spread is an important step in the study of pandemic and containing them. The principal mode for geographical spreading of pandemics is the movement of population across regions. We are interested in…
COVID-19 pandemic has brought the whole world to a stand-still over the last few months. In particular the pace at which pandemic has spread has taken everybody off-guard. The Governments across the world have responded by imposing…
Standard epidemiological models for COVID-19 employ variants of compartment (SIR) models at local scales, implicitly assuming spatially uniform local mixing. Here, we examine the effect of employing more geographically detailed diffusion…
In this paper, we propose a machine learning technics and SIR models (deterministic and stochastic cases) with numerical approximations to predict the number of cases infected with the COVID-19, for both in few days and the following three…