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Exploring causal relationships in stochastic time series is a challenging yet crucial task with a vast range of applications, including finance, economics, neuroscience, and climate science. Many algorithms for Causal Discovery (CD) have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-19 Matteo Tusoni , Giuseppe Masi , Andrea Coletta , Aldo Glielmo , Viviana Arrigoni , Novella Bartolini

Causal discovery uncovers complex relationships between variables, enhancing predictions, decision-making, and insights into real-world systems, especially in nonlinear multivariate time series. However, most existing methods primarily…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-30 Wasim Ahmad , Joachim Denzler , Maha Shadaydeh

Directed acyclic graphs have been used fruitfully to represent causal strucures (Pearl 1988). However, in the social sciences and elsewhere models are often used which correspond both causally and statistically to directed graphs with…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-10-24 Thomas S. Richardson

Sequential and temporal data arise in many fields of research, such as quantitative finance, medicine, or computer vision. A novel approach for sequential learning, called the signature method and rooted in rough path theory, is considered.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-10 Adeline Fermanian

Causal representation learning promises to extend causal models to hidden causal variables from raw entangled measurements. However, most progress has focused on proving identifiability results in different settings, and we are not aware of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Dingling Yao , Caroline Muller , Francesco Locatello

This paper presents a method to identify causal interactions between two time series. The largest eigenvalue follows a Tracy-Widom distribution, derived from a Coulomb gas model. This defines causal interactions as the pushing and pulling…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-11-19 Alejandro Rodriguez Dominguez , Om Hari Yadav

A methodology for high dimensional causal inference in a time series context is introduced. It is assumed that there is a monotonic transformation of the data such that the dynamics of the transformed variables are described by a Gaussian…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-07 Francesco Cordoni , Alessio Sancetta

In ordinal symbolic dynamics, transcripts describe the algebraic relationship between ordinal patterns. Using the concept of transcript, we exploit the mathematical structure of the group of permutations to derive properties and relations…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-06-15 Roberto Monetti , Wolfram Bunk , Thomas Aschenbrenner , Stephan Springer , Jose Maria Amigo

Most approaches for assessing causality in complex dynamical systems fail when the interactions between variables are inherently non-linear and non-stationary. Here we introduce Temporal Autoencoders for Causal Inference (TACI), a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-06 Josuan Calderon , Gordon J. Berman

Causal knowledge is vital for effective reasoning in science, as causal relations, unlike correlations, allow one to reason about the outcomes of interventions. Algorithms that can discover causal relations from observational data are based…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-12 Anish Dhir , Ciarán M. Lee

Path signatures have been proposed as a powerful representation of paths that efficiently captures the path's analytic and geometric characteristics, having useful algebraic properties including fast concatenation of paths through tensor…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-06-21 Motoya Ohnishi , Iretiayo Akinola , Jie Xu , Ajay Mandlekar , Fabio Ramos

Causal discovery from time series is critical for many real-world applications, such as tracing the root causes of anomalies. Existing approaches typically rely on dataset-specific optimization, making it difficult to transfer their causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Biao Ouyang , Tengxue Zhang , Zhihao Zhuang , Yang Shu , Chenjuan Guo , Bin Yang

Healthcare artificial intelligence systems often degrade in performance when deployed across institutions, with documented performance drops and perpetuation of discriminatory patterns embedded in data. This brittleness comes, in part, from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-30 Munib Mesinovic , Max Buhlan , Tingting Zhu

Causal discovery is at the core of human cognition. It enables us to reason about the environment and make counterfactual predictions about unseen scenarios that can vastly differ from our previous experiences. We consider the task of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-01 Yunzhu Li , Antonio Torralba , Animashree Anandkumar , Dieter Fox , Animesh Garg

When domain knowledge is limited and experimentation is restricted by ethical, financial, or time constraints, practitioners turn to observational causal discovery methods to recover the causal structure, exploiting the statistical…

Discovering causal relationships between different variables from time series data has been a long-standing challenge for many domains such as climate science, finance, and healthcare. Given the complexity of real-world relationships and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-27 Wenbo Gong , Joel Jennings , Cheng Zhang , Nick Pawlowski

Much of our experiments are designed to uncover the cause(s) and effect(s) behind a data generating mechanism (i.e., phenomenon) we happen to be interested in. Uncovering such relationships allows us to identify the true working of a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-11 M. Z. Naser

Many important phenomena in scientific fields like climate, neuroscience, and epidemiology are naturally represented as spatiotemporal gridded data with complex interactions. Inferring causal relationships from these data is a challenging…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Kun Wang , Sumanth Varambally , Duncan Watson-Parris , Yi-An Ma , Rose Yu

The goal of Causal Discovery is to find automated search methods for learning causal structures from observational data. In some cases all variables of the interested causal mechanism are measured, and the task is to predict the effects one…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-11 Shuyan Wang

Discovering causal relationship using multivariate functional data has received a significant amount of attention very recently. In this article, we introduce a functional linear structural equation model for causal structure learning when…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-01 Saptarshi Roy , Raymond K. W. Wong , Yang Ni