Related papers: Prior Intensified Information Criterion
Forecasting techniques for assessing the power of future experiments to discriminate between theories or discover new laws of nature are of great interest in many areas of science. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian forecasting method…
The first investigation is made of designs for screening experiments where the response variable is approximated by a generalised linear model. A Bayesian information capacity criterion is defined for the selection of designs that are…
Simultaneous predictive distributions for independent Poisson observables are investigated. A class of improper prior distributions for Poisson means is introduced. The Bayesian predictive distributions based on priors from the introduced…
We test three common information criteria (IC) for selecting the order of a Hawkes process with an intensity kernel that can be expressed as a mixture of exponential terms. These processes find application in high-frequency financial data…
Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC; Watanabe, 2010) and leave-one-out cross validation (LOO) are two fully Bayesian model selection methods that have been shown to perform better than other traditional information-criterion based…
The variational autoencoder (VAE) is a powerful generative model that can estimate the probability of a data point by using latent variables. In the VAE, the posterior of the latent variable given the data point is regularized by the prior…
Variational Inference (VI) is a popular alternative to asymptotically exact sampling in Bayesian inference. Its main workhorse is optimization over a reverse Kullback-Leibler divergence (RKL), which typically underestimates the tail of the…
Recent advances in statistical learning theory have revealed profound connections between mutual information (MI) bounds, PAC-Bayesian theory, and Bayesian nonparametrics. This work introduces a novel mutual information bound for…
Bayesian predictive inference propagates parameter uncertainty to quantities of interest through the posterior-predictive distribution. In practice, this is typically performed using a two-stage procedure: first approximating the posterior…
The Bayesian brain hypothesis has been a leading theory in understanding perceptual decision-making under uncertainty. While extensive psychophysical evidence supports the notion of the brain performing Bayesian computations, how…
This paper compares three approaches to the problem of selecting among probability models to fit data (1) use of statistical criteria such as Akaike's information criterion and Schwarz's "Bayesian information criterion," (2) maximization of…
The Misspecification-Resistant Information Criterion (MRIC) proposed in [H.-L. Hsu, C.-K. Ing, H. Tong: On model selection from a finite family of possibly misspecified time series models. The Annals of Statistics. 47 (2), 1061--1087…
We develop an algorithm for model selection which allows for the consideration of a combinatorially large number of candidate models governing a dynamical system. The innovation circumvents a disadvantage of standard model selection which…
An efficient algorithm for the determination of Bayesian optimal discriminating designs for competing regression models is developed, where the main focus is on models with general distributional assumptions beyond the "classical" case of…
We propose a novel computationally low-cost method for estimating a general predictive measure of generalised Bayesian inference. The proposed method utilises posterior covariance and provides estimators of the Gibbs and the plugin…
In this paper, we compare the performance of two methods for estimating Bayesian networks from data containing exogenous variables and random effects. The first method is fully Bayesian in which a prior distribution is placed on the…
Researchers often face choices between multiple data sources that differ in quality, cost, and representativeness. Which sources will most improve predictive performance? We study this data prioritization problem under a random distribution…
A natural method for approximating out-of-sample predictive evaluation is leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) --- we alternately hold out each case from a full data set and then train a Bayesian model using Markov chain Monte Carlo…
There is growing interest in Bayesian clinical trial designs with informative prior distributions, e.g. for extrapolation of adult data to pediatrics, or use of external controls. While the classical type I error is commonly used to…
In statistical modeling area, the Akaike information criterion AIC, is a widely known and extensively used tool for model choice. The {\phi}-divergence test statistic is a recently developed tool for statistical model selection. The…