English
Related papers

Related papers: Quantifying Epistemic Uncertainty in Deep Learning

200 papers

Dynamic neural networks are a recent technique that promises a remedy for the increasing size of modern deep learning models by dynamically adapting their computational cost to the difficulty of the inputs. In this way, the model can adjust…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-11 Lassi Meronen , Martin Trapp , Andrea Pilzer , Le Yang , Arno Solin

Uncertainty is ubiquitous in games, both in the agents playing games and often in the games themselves. Working with uncertainty is therefore an important component of successful deep reinforcement learning agents. While there has been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-22 Owen Lockwood , Mei Si

High-quality estimates of uncertainty and robustness are crucial for numerous real-world applications, especially for deep learning which underlies many deployed ML systems. The ability to compare techniques for improving these estimates is…

Epistemic Uncertainty is a measure of the lack of knowledge of a learner which diminishes with more evidence. While existing work focuses on using the variance of the Bayesian posterior due to parameter uncertainty as a measure of epistemic…

Due to their intuitive appeal, Bayesian methods of modeling and uncertainty quantification have become popular in modern machine and deep learning. When providing a prior distribution over the parameter space, it is straightforward to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-05 Ivan Melev , Goeran Kauermann

Uncertainty is an essential consideration for time series forecasting tasks. In this work, we specifically focus on quantifying the uncertainty of traffic forecasting. To achieve this, we develop Deep Spatio-Temporal Uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-12 Weizhu Qian , Dalin Zhang , Yan Zhao , Kai Zheng , James J. Q. Yu

We study the understanding of deep neural networks from the scope in which they are trained on. While the accuracy of these models is usually impressive on the aggregate level, they still make mistakes, sometimes on cases that appear to be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-12 Roozbeh Yousefzadeh

Reliable estimation of predictive uncertainty is crucial for machine learning applications, particularly in high-stakes scenarios where hedging against risks is essential. Despite its significance, there is no universal agreement on how to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Kajetan Schweighofer , Lukas Aichberger , Mykyta Ielanskyi , Sepp Hochreiter

Model-based deep learning solutions to inverse problems have attracted increasing attention in recent years as they bridge state-of-the-art numerical performance with interpretability. In addition, the incorporated prior domain knowledge…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-09-18 Frederik Hoppe , Claudio Mayrink Verdun , Felix Krahmer , Hannah Laus , Holger Rauhut

Uncertainty is a key feature of any machine learning model and is particularly important in neural networks, which tend to be overconfident. This overconfidence is worrying under distribution shifts, where the model performance silently…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-18 Arthur Thuy , Dries F. Benoit

Machine learning has achieved remarkable successes, yet its deployment in safety-critical domains remains hindered by an inherent inability to manage uncertainty, resulting in overconfident and unreliable predictions when models encounter…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Shireen Kudukkil Manchingal

This review is designed to introduce mathematicians and computational scientists to quantum computing (QC) through the lens of uncertainty quantification (UQ) by presenting a mathematically rigorous and accessible narrative for…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-03-30 Ryan Bennink , Olena Burkovska , Konstantin Pieper , Jorge Ramirez , Elaine Wong

Increasingly high-stakes decisions are made using neural networks in order to make predictions. Specifically, meteorologists and hedge funds apply these techniques to time series data. When it comes to prediction, there are certain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-14 Levente Foldesi , Matias Valdenegro-Toro

Techniques for understanding the functioning of complex machine learning models are becoming increasingly popular, not only to improve the validation process, but also to extract new insights about the data via exploratory analysis. Though…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-02 Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan , Irene Kim , Rushil Anirudh , Peer-Timo Bremer

With the advancement of GPS, remote sensing, and computational simulations, large amounts of geospatial and spatiotemporal data are being collected at an increasing speed. Such emerging spatiotemporal big data assets, together with the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-24 Wenchong He , Zhe Jiang

Quantifying model uncertainty is critical for understanding prediction reliability, yet distinguishing between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty remains challenging. We extend recent work from classification to regression to provide a…

Deep learning has been shown to be highly effective for automatic modulation classification (AMC), which is a pivotal technology for next-generation cognitive communications. Yet, existing deep learning methods for AMC often lack robust…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-03 Huian Yang , Rajeev Sahay

Quantifying uncertainties for machine learning (ML) models is a foundational challenge in modern data analysis. This challenge is compounded by at least two key aspects of the field: (a) inconsistent terminology surrounding uncertainty and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-04 Shubhendu Trivedi , Brian D. Nord

Decision Focused Learning has emerged as a critical paradigm for integrating machine learning with downstream optimisation. Despite its promise, existing methodologies predominantly rely on probabilistic models and focus narrowly on task…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-21 Keivan Shariatmadar , Neil Yorke-Smith , Ahmad Osman , Fabio Cuzzolin , Hans Hallez , David Moens

We introduce a framework for uncertainty estimation that both describes and extends many existing methods. We consider typical hyperparameters involved in classical training as random variables and marginalise them out to capture various…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-07 Francesco Farina , Lawrence Phillips , Nicola J Richmond