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Probabilistic solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) provide efficient quantification of numerical uncertainty associated with simulation of dynamical systems. Their convergence rates have been established by a growing body of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-21 Nicholas Krämer , Philipp Hennig

Filtering-based probabilistic numerical solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs), also known as ODE filters, have been established as efficient methods for quantifying numerical uncertainty in the solution of ODEs. In practical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-02 Dingling Yao , Filip Tronarp , Nathanael Bosch

Probabilistic numerical solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) treat the numerical simulation of dynamical systems as problems of Bayesian state estimation. Aside from producing posterior distributions over ODE solutions and…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-09-12 Nathanael Bosch , Adrien Corenflos , Fatemeh Yaghoobi , Filip Tronarp , Philipp Hennig , Simo Särkkä

This work develops a class of probabilistic algorithms for the numerical solution of nonlinear, time-dependent partial differential equations (PDEs). Current state-of-the-art PDE solvers treat the space- and time-dimensions separately,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-03-10 Nicholas Krämer , Jonathan Schmidt , Philipp Hennig

This paper develops a probabilistic numerical method for solution of partial differential equations (PDEs) and studies application of that method to PDE-constrained inverse problems. This approach enables the solution of challenging inverse…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-12 Jon Cockayne , Chris Oates , Tim Sullivan , Mark Girolami

Probabilistic numerical solvers for ordinary differential equations compute posterior distributions over the solution of an initial value problem via Bayesian inference. In this paper, we leverage their probabilistic formulation to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-22 Nathanael Bosch , Filip Tronarp , Philipp Hennig

Parameter estimation for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) plays a fundamental role in the analysis of dynamical systems. Generally lacking closed-form solutions, ODEs are traditionally approximated using deterministic solvers.…

Computation · Statistics 2025-06-30 Mohan Wu , Martin Lysy

The interpretation of numerical methods, such as finite difference methods for differential equations, as point estimators suggests that formal uncertainty quantification can also be performed in this context. Competing statistical…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2019-09-24 Junyang Wang , Jon Cockayne , Chris J. Oates

The interpretation of numerical methods, such as finite difference methods for differential equations, as point estimators allows for formal statistical quantification of the error due to discretisation in the numerical context. Competing…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-23 Junyang Wang , Jon Cockayne , Chris Oates

This paper studies the expressive and computational power of discrete Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs), a.k.a. (Ordinary) Difference Equations. It presents a new framework using these equations as a central tool for computation and…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2022-09-27 Olivier Bournez , Arnaud Durand

This work is concerned with the quantification of the epistemic uncertainties induced the discretization of partial differential equations. Following the paradigm of probabilistic numerics, we quantify this uncertainty probabilistically.…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-07-14 Ilias Bilionis

We consider the problem of parameter estimation in dynamic systems described by ordinary differential equations. A review of the existing literature emphasizes the need for deterministic global optimization methods due to the nonconvex…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-06-16 M. Fernández de Dios , Ángel M. González-Rueda , Julio R. Banga , Julio González-Díaz , David R. Penas

Probabilistic ordinary differential equation (ODE) solvers have been introduced over the past decade as uncertainty-aware numerical integrators. They typically proceed by assuming a functional prior to the ODE solution, which is then…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-03-25 Yvann Le Fay , Simo Särkkä , Adrien Corenflos

High-dimensional partial-differential equations (PDEs) arise in a number of fields of science and engineering, where they are used to describe the evolution of joint probability functions. Their examples include the Boltzmann and…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-10-17 A. M. P. Boelens , D. Venturi , D. M. Tartakovsky

Solving partial differential equations (PDEs) within the framework of probabilistic numerics offers a principled approach to quantifying epistemic uncertainty arising from discretization. By leveraging Gaussian process regression and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-18 Akshay Thakur , Sawan Kumar , Matthew Zahr , Souvik Chakraborty

Mechanistic models with differential equations are a key component of scientific applications of machine learning. Inference in such models is usually computationally demanding, because it involves repeatedly solving the differential…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-06 Jonathan Schmidt , Nicholas Krämer , Philipp Hennig

The solution of systems of non-autonomous linear ordinary differential equations is crucial in a variety of applications, such us nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. A new method with spectral accuracy has been recently introduced in…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-10-14 Stefano Pozza , Niel Van Buggenhout

A novel probabilistic numerical method for quantifying the uncertainty induced by the time integration of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) is introduced. Departing from the classical strategy to randomize ODE solvers by adding a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-06-26 Assyr Abdulle , Giacomo Garegnani

Modeling real-world problems with partial differential equations (PDEs) is a prominent topic in scientific machine learning. Classic solvers for this task continue to play a central role, e.g. to generate training data for deep learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-10 Tim Weiland , Marvin Pförtner , Philipp Hennig

The numerical solution methods for partial differential equation (PDE) solution allow obtaining a discrete field that converges towards the solution if the method is applied to the correct problem. Nevertheless, the numerical methods…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-03-04 Alexander Hvatov
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