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Most machine learning techniques are based upon statistical learning theory, often simplified for the sake of computing speed. This paper is focused on the uncertainty aspect of mathematical modeling in machine learning. Regression analysis…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-07 Valentin Arkov

Uncertainty estimation is important for ensuring safety and robustness of AI systems. While most research in the area has focused on un-structured prediction tasks, limited work has investigated general uncertainty estimation approaches for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-12 Andrey Malinin , Mark Gales

Uncertainty estimation is critical for deploying reasoning language models, yet remains poorly understood under extended chain-of-thought reasoning. We study parallel sampling as a fully black-box approach using verbalized confidence and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-20 Maksym Del , Markus Kängsepp , Marharyta Domnich , Ardi Tampuu , Lisa Yankovskaya , Meelis Kull , Mark Fishel

Statistical models are inherently uncertain. Quantifying or at least upper-bounding their uncertainties is vital for safety-critical systems such as autonomous vehicles. While standard neural networks do not report this information, several…

Computational image reconstruction algorithms generally produce a single image without any measure of uncertainty or confidence. Regularized Maximum Likelihood (RML) and feed-forward deep learning approaches for inverse problems typically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-18 He Sun , Katherine L. Bouman

Accurate noise modelling is important for training of deep learning reconstruction algorithms. While noise models are well known for traditional imaging techniques, the noise distribution of a novel sensor may be difficult to determine a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-11 Felix Horger , Tobias Würfl , Vincent Christlein , Andreas Maier

Surrogate task based methods have recently shown great promise for unsupervised image anomaly detection. However, there is no guarantee that the surrogate tasks share the consistent optimization direction with anomaly detection. In this…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-12-10 Fei Ye , Huangjie Zheng , Chaoqin Huang , Ya Zhang

Reasoning about uncertainty is vital in many real-life autonomous systems. However, current state-of-the-art planning algorithms cannot either reason about uncertainty explicitly, or do so with a high computational burden. Here, we focus on…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-01-31 Moran Barenboim , Vadim Indelman

Medical image segmentation modeling is a high-stakes task where understanding of uncertainty is crucial for addressing visual ambiguity. Prior work has developed segmentation models utilizing probabilistic or generative mechanisms to infer…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-06-13 Andre Ye , Quan Ze Chen , Amy Zhang

We introduce an unsupervised formulation to estimate heteroscedastic uncertainty in retrieval systems. We propose an extension to triplet loss that models data uncertainty for each input. Besides improving performance, our formulation…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-02-08 Ahmed Taha , Yi-Ting Chen , Teruhisa Misu , Abhinav Shrivastava , Larry Davis

In this paper the application of uncertainty modeling to convolutional neural networks is evaluated. A novel method for adjusting the network's predictions based on uncertainty information is introduced. This allows the network to be either…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2016-12-23 Rene Grzeszick , Sebastian Sudholt , Gernot A. Fink

In this paper, we study the problem of uncertainty estimation and calibration for LLMs. We begin by formulating the uncertainty estimation problem, a relevant yet underexplored area in existing literature. We then propose a supervised…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-24 Linyu Liu , Yu Pan , Xiaocheng Li , Guanting Chen

We present a novel approach to uncertainty quantification in classification tasks based on label-wise decomposition of uncertainty measures. This label-wise perspective allows uncertainty to be quantified at the individual class level,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Yusuf Sale , Paul Hofman , Timo Löhr , Lisa Wimmer , Thomas Nagler , Eyke Hüllermeier

Segmenting visual stimuli into distinct groups of features and visual objects is central to visual function. Classical psychophysical methods have helped uncover many rules of human perceptual segmentation, and recent progress in machine…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-10-12 Jonathan Vacher , Claire Launay , Pascal Mamassian , Ruben Coen-Cagli

With the wide adoption of machine learning techniques, requirements have evolved beyond sheer high performance, often requiring models to be trustworthy. A common approach to increase the trustworthiness of such systems is to allow them to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-16 Andrea Pugnana , Carlos Mougan , Dan Saattrup Nielsen

There are various measures of predictive uncertainty in the literature, but their relationships to each other remain unclear. This paper uses a decomposition of statistical pointwise risk into components, associated with different sources…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-18 Nikita Kotelevskii , Vladimir Kondratyev , Martin Takáč , Éric Moulines , Maxim Panov

Inverse problems play a key role in modern image/signal processing methods. However, since they are generally ill-conditioned or ill-posed due to lack of observations, their solutions may have significant intrinsic uncertainty. Analysing…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-09-09 Xiaohao Cai , Marcelo Pereyra , Jason D. McEwen

In the field of semi-supervised medical image segmentation, the shortage of labeled data is the fundamental problem. How to effectively learn image features from unlabeled images to improve segmentation accuracy is the main research…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-10-11 Zhanhong Qiu , Haitao Gan , Ming Shi , Zhongwei Huang , Zhi Yang

Neural networks predictions are unreliable when the input sample is out of the training distribution or corrupted by noise. Being able to detect such failures automatically is fundamental to integrate deep learning algorithms into robotics.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-02-18 Antonio Loquercio , Mattia Segù , Davide Scaramuzza

Supervised learning-based segmentation methods typically require a large number of annotated training data to generalize well at test time. In medical applications, curating such datasets is not a favourable option because acquiring a large…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-11-20 Krishna Chaitanya , Neerav Karani , Christian F. Baumgartner , Ertunc Erdil , Anton Becker , Olivio Donati , Ender Konukoglu