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The a priori error analysis of reduced order models (ROMs) for fluids is relatively scarce. In this paper, we take a step in this direction and conduct numerical analysis of the recently introduced time relaxation ROM (TR-ROM), which uses…
Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict…
Fitting equilibrium dynamical models to observational data is an essential step in understanding the structure of the gaseous hot haloes that surround our own and other galaxies. However, the two main categories of models that are used in…
Dynamical weather and climate prediction models underpin many studies of the Earth system and hold the promise of being able to make robust projections of future climate change based on physical laws. However, simulations from these models…
Air shower simulation programs are essential tools for the analysis of data from cosmic ray experiments and for planning the layout of new detectors. They are used to estimate the energy and mass of the primary particle. Unfortunately the…
Stratosphere circulation is important to interpret abundances of photo-chemically produced compounds like ozone that we aim to observe to assess habitability of exoplanets. We thus investigate a tidally locked ExoEarth scenario for…
Physical processes that manifest as tangential vector fields on a sphere are common in geophysical and environmental sciences. These naturally occurring vector fields are often subject to physical constraints, such as being curl-free or…
One-dimensional (vertical) models of planetary atmospheres typically balance the net solar and internal energy fluxes against the net thermal radiative and convective heat fluxes to determine an equilibrium thermal structure. Thus,simple…
The global ocean circulation plays a pivotal role in the regulation of the Earth's climate. The specific pattern and strength of circulation also determines how carbon and nutrients are cycled and via the resulting distribution of dissolved…
Exploring planetary systems similar to our solar system can provide a means to explore a large range of possibly temperate climates on Earth-like worlds. Rather than run hundreds of simulations with different eccentricities at fixed…
We present a model for variations in atmospheric temperature from time scales of one day to one million years based on a stochastic diffusion (random walk) model of the turbulent transport of heat energy vertically in a coupled…
The last decades have seen an unprecedented increase in the availability of data sets that are inherently global and temporally evolving, from remotely sensed networks to climate model ensembles. This paper provides a view of statistical…
In many-particle diffusions, particles that move the furthest and fastest can play an outsized role in physical phenomena. A theoretical understanding of the behavior of such extreme particles is nascent. A classical model, in the spirit of…
The hot-Jupiter HAT-P-2b has become a prime target for Spitzer Space Telescope observations aimed at understanding the atmospheric response of exoplanets on highly eccentric orbits. Here we present a suite of three-dimensional atmospheric…
The ambient solar wind flows and fields influence the complex propagation dynamics of coronal mass ejections in the interplanetary medium and play an essential role in shaping Earth's space weather environment. A critical scientific goal in…
Cloud microphysical parameterizations in atmospheric models describe the formation and evolution of clouds and precipitation, a central weather and climate process. Cloud-associated latent heating is a primary driver of large and…
The state of earth's climate is constrained by well-known physical principles such as energy balance and the conservation of energy. Increased greenhouse gas concentrations affect the atmospheric optical depth, and physical consistency…
Using a dynamical model to make predictions about a system has many sources of error. These can include errors in how the model was initialised but also errors in the dynamics of the model itself. For many applications in data assimilation,…
The under-representation of cloud formation is a long-standing bias associated with climate simulations. Parameterisation schemes are required to capture cloud processes within current climate models but have known biases. We overcome these…
Many geophysical and astrophysical phenomena are driven by turbulent fluid dynamics, containing behaviors separated by tens of orders of magnitude in scale. While direct simulations have made large strides toward understanding geophysical…