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Related papers: A Framework for Measures of Risk under Uncertainty

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Due to their heterogeneity, insurance risks can be properly described as a mixture of different fixed models, where the weights assigned to each model may be estimated empirically from a sample of available data. If a risk measure is…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2018-02-12 Valeria Bignozzi , Claudio Macci , Lea Petrella

There are various measures of predictive uncertainty in the literature, but their relationships to each other remain unclear. This paper uses a decomposition of statistical pointwise risk into components, associated with different sources…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-18 Nikita Kotelevskii , Vladimir Kondratyev , Martin Takáč , Éric Moulines , Maxim Panov

In this paper, an optimization problem with uncertain constraint coefficients is considered. Possibility theory is used to model the uncertainty. Namely, a joint possibility distribution in constraint coefficient realizations, called…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-09-07 Romain Guillaume , Adam Kasperski , Pawel Zielinski

Risk management is particularly concerned with extreme events, but analysing these events is often hindered by the scarcity of data, especially in a multivariate context. This data scarcity complicates risk management efforts. Various tools…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-15 Nisrine Madhar , Juliette Legrand , Maud Thomas

By means of the techniques of Boolean valued analysis, we provide a transfer principle between duality theory of classical convex risk measures and duality theory of conditional risk measures. Namely, a conditional risk measure can be…

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2019-10-09 José Miguel Zapata

There are two reasons why uncertainty may not be adequately described by Probability Theory. The first one is due to unique or nearly-unique events, that either never realized or occurred too seldom for frequencies to be reliably measured.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-03-17 Florian Ellsaesser , Guido Fioretti , Gail E. James

Many methods are available for assessing the importance of omitted variables in linear regression. These methods typically make different, non-falsifiable assumptions. Hence the data alone cannot tell us which method is most appropriate.…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-05 Paul Diegert , Matthew A. Masten , Alexandre Poirier

We study combinations of risk measures under no restrictive assumption on the set of alternatives. We develop and discuss results regarding the preservation of properties and acceptance sets for the combinations of risk measures. One of the…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-05-09 Marcelo Brutti Righi

We investigate to which extent the relevant features of (static) Systemic Risk Measures can be extended to a conditional setting. After providing a general dual representation result, we analyze in greater detail Conditional Shortfall…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-05-12 Alessandro Doldi , Marco Frittelli

We present a novel approach to uncertainty quantification in classification tasks based on label-wise decomposition of uncertainty measures. This label-wise perspective allows uncertainty to be quantified at the individual class level,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Yusuf Sale , Paul Hofman , Timo Löhr , Lisa Wimmer , Thomas Nagler , Eyke Hüllermeier

Marginal expected shortfall is unquestionably one of the most popular systemic risk measures. Studying its extreme behaviour is particularly relevant for risk protection against severe global financial market downturns. In this context,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-04-18 Simone A. Padoan , Stefano Rizzelli , Matteo Schiavone

A one-to-one correspondence is drawn between law invariant risk measures and divergences, which we define as functionals of pairs of probability measures on arbitrary standard Borel spaces satisfying a few natural properties. Divergences…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-06-07 Daniel Lacker

A classical result in risk measure theory states that every coherent risk measure has a dual representation as the supremum of certain expected value over a risk envelope. We study this topic in more detail. The related issues include: 1.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-02-28 Marcus Ang , Jie Sun , Qiang Yao

In this paper we provide a flexible framework allowing for a unified study of time consistency of risk measures and performance measures (also known as acceptability indices). The proposed framework not only integrates existing forms of…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-09-08 Tomasz R. Bielecki , Igor Cialenco , Marcin Pitera

We present a general framework for uncertainty quantification that is a mosaic of interconnected models. We define global first and second order structural and correlative sensitivity analyses for random counting measures acting on risk…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-05 Caleb Deen Bastian , Herschel Rabitz

We give elementary examples within a framework for studying decisions under uncertainty where probabilities are only roughly known. The framework, in gambling terms, is that the size of a bet is proportional to the gambler's perceived…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-12-19 David J. Aldous , F. Thomas Bruss

In this research, starting from a widely accepted definition of risk, we support the idea that risk reduction is a more realistic objective than risk minimization, which represents a theoretical utopia. Furthermore, significant risk…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-05-01 Pierpaolo Uberti

To make medium- and long-term insurance products attractive, it is essential to enable participation in stock market returns. However, to eliminate downside risk, guarantees must be included, which naturally leads to the challenge of…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-10-09 Raquel M. Gaspar , Thorsten Schmidt

We study issues of robustness in the context of Quantitative Risk Management and Optimization. We develop a general methodology for determining whether a given risk measurement related optimization problem is robust, which we call…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-02-12 Paul Embrechts , Alexander Schied , Ruodu Wang

Financial institutions have to allocate so-called "economic capital" in order to guarantee solvency to their clients and counter parties. Mathematically speaking, any methodology of allocating capital is a "risk measure", i.e. a function…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2011-08-09 Dirk Tasche