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Probabilistic solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) have emerged as an efficient framework for uncertainty quantification and inference on dynamical systems. In this work, we explain the mathematical assumptions and detailed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-25 Nicholas Krämer , Nathanael Bosch , Jonathan Schmidt , Philipp Hennig

Probabilistic numerical solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) treat the numerical simulation of dynamical systems as problems of Bayesian state estimation. Aside from producing posterior distributions over ODE solutions and…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-09-12 Nathanael Bosch , Adrien Corenflos , Fatemeh Yaghoobi , Filip Tronarp , Philipp Hennig , Simo Särkkä

Probabilistic solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) provide efficient quantification of numerical uncertainty associated with simulation of dynamical systems. Their convergence rates have been established by a growing body of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-21 Nicholas Krämer , Philipp Hennig

This paper develops a probabilistic numerical method for solution of partial differential equations (PDEs) and studies application of that method to PDE-constrained inverse problems. This approach enables the solution of challenging inverse…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-12 Jon Cockayne , Chris Oates , Tim Sullivan , Mark Girolami

Probabilistic solvers provide a flexible and efficient framework for simulation, uncertainty quantification, and inference in dynamical systems. However, like standard solvers, they suffer performance penalties for certain stiff systems,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-12-20 Nathanael Bosch , Philipp Hennig , Filip Tronarp

Filtering-based probabilistic numerical solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs), also known as ODE filters, have been established as efficient methods for quantifying numerical uncertainty in the solution of ODEs. In practical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-02 Dingling Yao , Filip Tronarp , Nathanael Bosch

A research frontier has emerged in scientific computation, wherein numerical error is regarded as a source of epistemic uncertainty that can be modelled. This raises several statistical challenges, including the design of statistical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-19 François-Xavier Briol , Chris. J. Oates , Mark Girolami , Michael A. Osborne , Dino Sejdinovic

Probabilistic solvers for ordinary differential equations assign a posterior measure to the solution of an initial value problem. The joint covariance of this distribution provides an estimate of the (global) approximation error. The…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-02-23 Nathanael Bosch , Philipp Hennig , Filip Tronarp

Like many numerical methods, solvers for initial value problems (IVPs) on ordinary differential equations estimate an analytically intractable quantity, using the results of tractable computations as inputs. This structure is closely…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-08-14 Michael Schober , Simo Särkkä , Philipp Hennig

We deliver a call to arms for probabilistic numerical methods: algorithms for numerical tasks, including linear algebra, integration, optimization and solving differential equations, that return uncertainties in their calculations. Such…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-02-17 Philipp Hennig , Michael A Osborne , Mark Girolami

Mechanistic models with differential equations are a key component of scientific applications of machine learning. Inference in such models is usually computationally demanding, because it involves repeatedly solving the differential…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-06 Jonathan Schmidt , Nicholas Krämer , Philipp Hennig

The nature of so-called differential-algebraic operators and their approximations is constitutive for the direct treatment of higher-index differential-algebraic equations. We treat first-order differential-algebraic operators in detail and…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-03-22 Michael Hanke , Roswitha März

We introduce basic aspects of new operator method, which is very suitable for practical solving differential equations of various types. The main advantage of the method is revealed in opportunity to find compact exact operator solutions of…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Yu. N. Kosovtsov

Probabilistic ordinary differential equation (ODE) solvers have been introduced over the past decade as uncertainty-aware numerical integrators. They typically proceed by assuming a functional prior to the ODE solution, which is then…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-03-25 Yvann Le Fay , Simo Särkkä , Adrien Corenflos

The numerical solution methods for partial differential equation (PDE) solution allow obtaining a discrete field that converges towards the solution if the method is applied to the correct problem. Nevertheless, the numerical methods…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-03-04 Alexander Hvatov

The infinite-dimensional information operator for the nuisance parameter plays a key role in semiparametric inference, as it is closely related to the regular estimability of the target parameter. Calculation of information operators has…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-16 Lu Mao

With the immense computing power at our disposal, the numerical solution of partial differential equations (PDEs) is becoming a day-to-day task for modern computational scientists. However, the complexity of real-life problems is such that…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-04-05 Mitja Jančič , Filip Strniša , Gregor Kosec

Neural operators aim to approximate the solution operator of a system of differential equations purely from data. They have shown immense success in modeling complex dynamical systems across various domains. However, the occurrence of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-01 Christopher Bülte , Philipp Scholl , Gitta Kutyniok

Computer simulations of differential equations require a time discretization, which inhibits to identify the exact solution with certainty. Probabilistic simulations take this into account via uncertainty quantification. The construction of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-10-15 Philipp Frank , Torsten A. Enßlin

Bayesian probabilistic numerical methods are a set of tools providing posterior distributions on the output of numerical methods. The use of these methods is usually motivated by the fact that they can represent our uncertainty due to…

Computation · Statistics 2018-08-01 Xiaoyue Xi , François-Xavier Briol , Mark Girolami
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