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Distributional regression aims at estimating the conditional distribution of a targetvariable given explanatory co-variates. It is a crucial tool for forecasting whena precise uncertainty quantification is required. A popular methodology…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-22 Clément Dombry , Ahmed Zaoui

Inference tasks in signal processing are often characterized by the availability of reliable statistical modeling with some missing instance-specific parameters. One conventional approach uses data to estimate these missing parameters and…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-04-25 Nir Shlezinger , Tirza Routtenberg

Generative modeling of spatio-temporal fields is crucial for a variety of applications, including stochastic weather generators and climate-model surrogates. However, many such fields exhibit complex dependence structures that vary across…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-06 Carrie J. Lei-Cramer , Jian Cao , Matthias Katzfuss

This paper proposes probabilistic conformal prediction (PCP), a predictive inference algorithm that estimates a target variable by a discontinuous predictive set. Given inputs, PCP construct the predictive set based on random samples from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-22 Zhendong Wang , Ruijiang Gao , Mingzhang Yin , Mingyuan Zhou , David M. Blei

We propose a method for inferring the conditional indepen- dence graph (CIG) of a high-dimensional discrete-time Gaus- sian vector random process from finite-length observations. Our approach does not rely on a parametric model (such as,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-03-11 Alexander Jung , Reinhard Heckel , Helmut Bölcskei , Franz Hlawatsch

Probabilistic forecasting of multivariate time series is challenging due to non-stationarity, inter-variable dependencies, and distribution shifts. While recent diffusion and flow matching models have shown promise, they often ignore…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-19 Yanfeng Yang , Siwei Chen , Pingping Hu , Zhaotong Shen , Yingjie Zhang , Zhuoran Sun , Shuai Li , Ziqi Chen , Kenji Fukumizu

Machine learning provides a novel avenue for the study of experimental realizations of many-body systems, and has recently been proven successful in analyzing properties of experimental data of ultracold quantum gases. We here show that…

Computational Physics · Physics 2021-09-29 Corneel Casert , Kyle Mills , Tom Vieijra , Jan Ryckebusch , Isaac Tamblyn

Recent research has proven neural networks to be a powerful tool for performing hyperspectral imaging (HSI) target identification. However, many deep learning frameworks deliver a single material class prediction and operate on a per-pixel…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-14 Joshua R. Tempelman , Kevin Mitchell , Adam J. Wachtor , Eric B. Flynn

Leveraging machine learning methods to solve constraint satisfaction problems has shown promising, but they are mostly limited to a static situation where the problem description is completely known and fixed from the beginning. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Wook Lee , Frans A. Oliehoek

We introduce a novel training principle for probabilistic models that is an alternative to maximum likelihood. The proposed Generative Stochastic Networks (GSN) framework is based on learning the transition operator of a Markov chain whose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-03-29 Guillaume Alain , Yoshua Bengio , Li Yao , Jason Yosinski , Eric Thibodeau-Laufer , Saizheng Zhang , Pascal Vincent

In the study of natural and artificial complex systems, responses that are not completely determined by the considered decision variables are commonly modelled probabilistically, resulting in response distributions varying across decision…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-07 Athénaïs Gautier , David Ginsbourger , Guillaume Pirot

Conventional methods of estimating latent behaviour generally use attitudinal questions which are subjective and these survey questions may not always be available. We hypothesize that an alternative approach can be used for latent variable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-09-18 Melvin Wong , Bilal Farooq , Guillaume-Alexandre Bilodeau

Deep learning provides a powerful tool for machine perception when the observations resemble the training data. However, real-world robotic systems must react intelligently to their observations even in unexpected circumstances. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-31 Rowan McAllister , Gregory Kahn , Jeff Clune , Sergey Levine

When a missing process depends on the missing values themselves, it needs to be explicitly modelled and taken into account while doing likelihood-based inference. We present an approach for building and fitting deep latent variable models…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-19 Niels Bruun Ipsen , Pierre-Alexandre Mattei , Jes Frellsen

We propose a novel conditional diffusion model for contextual portfolio optimization that learns the cross-sectional distribution of next-day stock returns conditioned on high-dimensional asset-specific factors. Our model leverages a…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-17 Xuefeng Gao , Mengying He , Xuedong He

Generative modeling, which learns joint probability distribution from data and generates samples according to it, is an important task in machine learning and artificial intelligence. Inspired by probabilistic interpretation of quantum…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-07-20 Zhao-Yu Han , Jun Wang , Heng Fan , Lei Wang , Pan Zhang

We propose and analyze a generalized splitting method to sample approximately from a distribution conditional on the occurrence of a rare event. This has important applications in a variety of contexts in operations research, engineering,…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-10 Zdravko I. Botev , Pierre L'Ecuyer

Generative models have emerged as powerful tools for planning, with compositional approaches offering particular promise for modeling long-horizon task distributions by composing together local, modular generative models. This compositional…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Utkarsh A Mishra , David He , Yongxin Chen , Danfei Xu

Deep generative modeling has led to new and state of the art approaches for enforcing structural priors in a variety of inverse problems. In contrast to priors given by sparsity, deep models can provide direct low-dimensional…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-12-12 Wen Huang , Paul Hand , Reinhard Heckel , Vladislav Voroninski

Various deep generative models have been proposed to estimate potential outcomes distributions from observational data. However, none of them have the favorable theoretical property of general Neyman-orthogonality and, associated with it,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-12 Valentyn Melnychuk , Stefan Feuerriegel
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