Related papers: Efficient and Consistent Data-Driven Model Selecti…
The Asymptotic Randomised Control (ARC) algorithm provides a rigorous approximation to the optimal strategy for a wide class of Bayesian bandits, while retaining low computational complexity. In particular, the ARC approach provides nearly…
Popular statistical software provides Bayesian information criterion (BIC) for multilevel models or linear mixed models. However, it has been observed that the combination of statistical literature and software documentation has led to…
Model selection based on classical information criteria, such as BIC, is generally computationally demanding, but its properties are well studied. On the other hand, model selection based on parameter shrinkage by $\ell_1$-type penalties is…
Model selection aims to find the best model in terms of accuracy, interpretability or simplicity, preferably all at once. In this work, we focus on evaluating model performance of Gaussian process models, i.e. finding a metric that provides…
We introduce Causal Computational Asymmetry (CCA), a principle for causal direction identification based on optimization dynamics in which one neural network is trained to predict $Y$ from $X$ and another to predict $X$ from $Y$, and the…
Information criteria such as Akaike's (AIC) and Bayes' (BIC) are widely used for model selection in physics and beyond, quantifying the tradeoff between model complexity and goodness-of-fit to enforce parsimony. However, their derivation…
A method for an evaluation of the error between an unknown parameter and its estimator is developed. Its application enables us to preserve the asymptotic power of a constructed test. Testing problems in AR(1) and ARCH models are studied…
Penalized regression models are popularly used in high-dimensional data analysis to conduct variable selection and model fitting simultaneously. Whereas success has been widely reported in literature, their performances largely depend on…
We provide a brief overview of both Bayes and classical model selection. We argue tentatively that model selection has at least two major goals, that of finding the correct model or predicting well, and that in general both these goals may…
Determining how to appropriately select the tuning parameter is essential in penalized likelihood methods for high-dimensional data analysis. We examine this problem in the setting of penalized likelihood methods for generalized linear…
For many scientific questions, understanding the underlying mechanism is the goal. To help investigators better understand the underlying mechanism, variable selection is a crucial step that permits the identification of the most associated…
This paper is devoted to the off-line multiple change-point detection in a semiparametric framework. The time series is supposed to belong to a large class of models including AR($\infty$), ARCH($\infty$), TARCH($\infty$),... models where…
Model selection criteria are one of the most important tools in statistics. Proofs showing a model selection criterion is asymptotically optimal are tailored to the type of model (linear regression, quantile regression, penalized…
In this paper, we use convolutional neural networks to address the problem of model identification for autoregressive moving average time series models. We compare the performance of several neural network architectures, trained on…
We study the problem of robust time series analysis under the standard auto-regressive (AR) time series model in the presence of arbitrary outliers. We devise an efficient hard thresholding based algorithm which can obtain a consistent…
This article proposes a Model Reference Adaptive Control (MRAC) strategy to achieve fixed-time convergence of parameter estimation and tracking errors for unknown linear time-invariant systems, without relying on the persistence of…
Model selection is a ubiquitous problem that arises in the application of many statistical and machine learning methods. In the likelihood and related settings, it is typical to use the method of information criteria (IC) to choose the most…
A central issue of many statistical learning problems is to select an appropriate model from a set of candidate models. Large models tend to inflate the variance (or overfitting), while small models tend to cause biases (or underfitting)…
The AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and its generalized version (GARCH) family of models have grown to encompass a wide range of specifications, each of them is designed to enhance the ability of the model to capture…
For data-driven iterative learning control (ILC) methods, both the model estimation and controller design problems are converted to parameter estimation problems for some chosen model structures. It is well-known that if the model order is…