Related papers: Bridging the short-term and long-term dynamics of …
Ecosystems, which are intricate amalgams of biological communities and their surrounding environments, continually evolve under the influence of their myriad interactions. The world is currently facing intensifying environmental…
This paper discusses serious drawbacks of existing knowledge in macroeconomics and finance in explaining and predicting economic and financial phenomena. Complexity science is proposed as an alternative approach to be used in order to…
Self-organisation lies at the core of fundamental but still unresolved scientific questions, and holds the promise of de-centralised paradigms crucial for future technological developments. While self-organising processes have been…
A burgeoning literature in economics studies how people form beliefs about the causal structures linking economic variables, and what happens when those beliefs are mistaken. We survey this research and connect it to a rich literature in…
Complex systems can be modelled at various levels of detail. Ideally, causal models of the same system should be consistent with one another in the sense that they agree in their predictions of the effects of interventions. We formalise…
Software systems are widely observed to grow in size, complexity, and interdependence over time, yet many large-scale systems remain stable despite persistent structural burden. This apparent tension suggests a limitation in one-dimensional…
Recommender Systems (RS) shape the filtering and curation of online content, yet we have limited understanding of how predictable their recommendation outputs are. We propose data-driven metrics that quantify the predictability of…
Persistent economic competition is often justified as a mechanism of innovation, efficiency, and welfare maximization. Yet empirical evidence across disciplines reveals that competition systematically generates fragility, inequality, and…
In this paper we revisit the concept of mobility entropy. Over time, the structure of spatial interactions among urban centres tends to become more complex and evolves from centralised models to more scattered origin and destination…
The objective of this work is the investigation of complexity, asymmetry, stochasticity and non-linearity of the financial and economic systems by using the tools of statistical mechanics and information theory. More precisely, this thesis…
Complexity is an important characteristic of any business process. The key assumption of much research in Business Process Management is that process complexity has a negative impact on process performance. So far, behavioral studies have…
As urban critic Jane Jacobs conceived, a city is essentially the problem of organized complexity. What underlies the complexity refers to a structural factor, called living structure, which is defined as a mathematical structure composed of…
Diversified economies are critical for cities to sustain their growth and development, but they are also costly because diversification often requires expanding a city's capability base. We analyze how cities manage this trade-off by…
Observations on the past provide some hints about what will happen in the future, and this can be quantified using information theory. The ``predictive information'' defined in this way has connections to measures of complexity that have…
Using the economic complexity methodology on data for disease prevalence in 195 countries during the period of 1990-2016, we propose two new metrics for quantifying the relatedness between diseases, or the `disease space' of countries. With…
The paper reviews two prominent approaches for the measurement of technological complexity: the method of reflection and the assessment of technologies' combinatorial difficulty. It discusses their central underlying assumptions and…
From some observations on economic behaviors, in particular changing economic conditions with time and space, we develop a very simple model for the evolution of economic entities within a geographical type of framework. We raise a few…
Modern economies require increasingly diverse and specialized skills, many of which depend on the acquisition of other skills first. Here we analyse US survey data to reveal a nested structure within skill portfolios, where the direction of…
This paper presents a conceptual model describing the medium and long-term co-evolution of natural and socio-economic subsystems of Earth. An economy is viewed as an out-of-equilibrium dissipative structure that can only be maintained with…
We analyze export data aggregated at world global level of 219 classes of products over a period of 39 years. Our main goal is to set up a dynamical model to identify and quantify plausible mechanisms by which the evolutions of the various…