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Bayesian inference typically relies on specifying a parametric model that approximates the data-generating process. However, misspecified models can yield poor convergence rates and unreliable posterior calibration. Bayesian empirical…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-27 Kenyon Ng , Weichang Yu , Howard D. Bondell

In this paper we combine the Alias method with the concept of systematic sampling, a method commonly used in particle filters for efficient low-variance resampling. The proposed method allows very fast sampling from a discrete distribution:…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Ilari Vallivaara , Katja Poikselkä , Pauli Rikula , Juha Röning

We consider systems of slow--fast diffusions with small noise in the slow component. We construct provably logarithmic asymptotically optimal importance schemes for the estimation of rare events based on the moderate deviations principle.…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-01-07 Matthew R. Morse , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

We consider the problem of inference in discrete probabilistic models, that is, distributions over subsets of a finite ground set. These encompass a range of well-known models in machine learning, such as determinantal point processes and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-10 Alkis Gotovos , Hamed Hassani , Andreas Krause , Stefanie Jegelka

Variational inference (VI) is a technique to approximate difficult to compute posteriors by optimization. In contrast to MCMC, VI scales to many observations. In the case of complex posteriors, however, state-of-the-art VI approaches often…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-26 Oliver Dürr , Stephan Hörling , Daniel Dold , Ivonne Kovylov , Beate Sick

In this contribution, we propose a new computationally efficient method to combine Variational Inference (VI) with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). This approach can be used with generic MCMC kernels, but is especially well suited to…

Variational Inequality (VI) problems have attracted great interest in the machine learning (ML) community due to their application in adversarial and multi-agent training. Despite its relevance in ML, the oft-used strong-monotonicity and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-02-09 Daniil Vankov , Angelia Nedich , Lalitha Sankar

The analysis of data from multiple experiments, such as observations of several individuals, is commonly approached using mixed-effects models, which account for variation between individuals through hierarchical representations. This makes…

Computation · Statistics 2026-03-05 Henrik Häggström , Sebastian Persson , Marija Cvijovic , Umberto Picchini

Monte Carlo methods, Variational Inference, and their combinations play a pivotal role in sampling from intractable probability distributions. However, current studies lack a unified evaluation framework, relying on disparate performance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-12 Denis Blessing , Xiaogang Jia , Johannes Esslinger , Francisco Vargas , Gerhard Neumann

Inference networks of traditional Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) are typically amortized, resulting in relatively inaccurate posterior approximation compared to instance-wise variational optimization. Recent semi-amortized approaches were…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-18 Minyoung Kim , Vladimir Pavlovic

Many methods for machine learning rely on approximate inference from intractable probability distributions. Variational inference approximates such distributions by tractable models that can be subsequently used for approximate inference.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-08 Oleg Arenz , Mingjun Zhong , Gerhard Neumann

We describe a very simple method for `consistent sampling' that allows for sampling with replacement. The method extends previous approaches to consistent sampling, which assign a pseudorandom real number to each element, and sample those…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2018-08-31 Ronald L. Rivest

While it's always possible to compute a variational approximation to a posterior distribution, it can be difficult to discover problems with this approximation. We propose two diagnostic algorithms to alleviate this problem. The…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-15 Yuling Yao , Aki Vehtari , Daniel Simpson , Andrew Gelman

Most applications of Bayesian Inference for parameter estimation and model selection in astrophysics involve the use of Monte Carlo techniques such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and nested sampling. However, these techniques are time…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2022-01-26 Geetakrishnasai Gunapati , Anirudh Jain , P. K. Srijith , Shantanu Desai

In this paper we first present a novel operator extrapolation (OE) method for solving deterministic variational inequality (VI) problems. Similar to the gradient (operator) projection method, OE updates one single search sequence by solving…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-06-21 Georgios Kotsalis , Guanghui Lan , Tianjiao Li

Variational methods are employed in situations where exact Bayesian inference becomes intractable due to the difficulty in performing certain integrals. Typically, variational methods postulate a tractable posterior and formulate a lower…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-12 Nikolaos Gianniotis , Christoph Schnörr , Christian Molkenthin , Sanjay Singh Bora

In systematic reviews and meta-analysis, researchers often pool the results of the sample mean and standard deviation from a set of similar clinical trials. A number of the trials, however, reported the study using the median, the minimum…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-06 Xiang Wan , Wenqian Wang , Jiming Liu , Tiejun Tong

Given an intractable target density $p$, variational inference (VI) attempts to find the best approximation $q$ from a tractable family $Q$. This is typically done by minimizing the exclusive Kullback-Leibler divergence, $\text{KL}(q||p)$.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-04 Charles C. Margossian , Lawrence K. Saul

Variational inference has become an increasingly attractive fast alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for approximate Bayesian inference. However, a major obstacle to the widespread use of variational methods is the lack of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-03 Jonathan H. Huggins , Mikołaj Kasprzak , Trevor Campbell , Tamara Broderick

In this paper, we propose a new statistical inference method for massive data sets, which is very simple and efficient by combining divide-and-conquer method and empirical likelihood. Compared with two popular methods (the bag of little…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-21 Xuejun Ma , Shaochen Wang , Wang Zhou
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