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Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been employed for a range of modelling and prediction tasks using financial data. However, evidence on their predictive performance, especially for time-series data, has been mixed. Whereas some…

Neural networks have revolutionized many empirical fields, yet their application to financial time series forecasting remains controversial. In this study, we demonstrate that the conventional practice of estimating models locally in…

We test various volatility models using the Bitcoin spot price series. Our models include HIST, EMA ARCH, GARCH, and EGARCH, models. Both of our in-sample-fit and out-of-sample-forecast results suggest that GARCH and EGARCH models perform…

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have been extensively used in various real-world applications. However, the predictive uncertainty of GNNs stemming from diverse sources such as inherent randomness in data and model training errors can lead to…

Quantifying both historic and future volatility is key in portfolio risk management. This note presents and compares estimation strategies for volatility estimation in an estimation universe consisting on 28 629 unique companies from…

In this paper, we propose a generative adversarial network (GAN) approach for efficiently computing volatility surfaces. The idea is to make use of the special GAN neural architecture so that on one hand, we can learn volatility surfaces…

We introduce a heterogeneous spatiotemporal GARCH model for geostatistical data or processes on networks, e.g., for modelling and predicting financial return volatility across firms in a latent spatial framework. The model combines…

This paper proposes an enhanced approach to modeling and forecasting volatility using high frequency data. Using a forecasting model based on Realized GARCH with multiple time-frequency decomposed realized volatility measures, we study the…

We have applied a Long Short-Term Memory neural network to model S&P 500 volatility, incorporating Google domestic trends as indicators of the public mood and macroeconomic factors. In a held-out test set, our Long Short-Term Memory model…

Events such as the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 or the COVID-19 pandemic caused significant losses to banks and insurance entities. They also demonstrated the importance of using accurate equity risk models and having a risk management…

Although various linear log-distance path loss models have been developed, advanced models are requiring to more accurately and flexibly represent the path loss for complex environments such as the urban area. This letter proposes an…

Here, we use Machine Learning (ML) algorithms to update and improve the efficiencies of fitting GARCH model parameters to empirical data. We employ an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict the parameters of these models. We present a…

This paper introduces one new multivariate volatility model that can accommodate an appropriately defined network structure based on low-frequency and high-frequency data. The model reduces the number of unknown parameters and the…

This paper captures irregularities in financial time series data, particularly stock prices, in the presence of COVID-19 shock. We conjectured that jumps and irregularities are embedded in stock data due to the pandemic shock, which brings…

Aims. We present an innovative artificial neural network (ANN) architecture, called Generative ANN (GANN), that computes the forward model, that is it learns the function that relates the unknown outputs (stellar atmospheric parameters, in…

Financing high-tech projects always entails a great deal of risk. The lack of a systematic method to pinpoint the risk of such projects has been recognized as one of the most salient barriers for evaluating them. So, in order to develop a…

Accurate channel modeling is the foundation of communication system design. However, the traditional measurement-based modeling approach has increasing challenges for the scenarios with insufficient measurement data. To obtain enough data…

The existing publications demonstrate that the limit order book data is useful in predicting short-term volatility in stock markets. Since stocks are not independent, changes on one stock can also impact other related stocks. In this paper,…

In order to obtain a reasonable and reliable forecast method for crude oil price volatility, this paper evaluates the forecast performance of single-regime GARCH models (including the standard linear GARCH model and the nonlinear GJR-GARCH…

We propose a new approach to volatility modeling by combining deep learning (LSTM) and realized volatility measures. This LSTM-enhanced realized GARCH framework incorporates and distills modeling advances from financial econometrics, high…