Related papers: Semimartingale and continuous-time Markov chain ap…

We derive a higher-order asymptotic expansion of the conditional characteristic function of the increment of an It\^o semimartingale over a shrinking time interval. The spot characteristics of the It\^o semimartingale are allowed to have…

We consider a class of semi-Markov processes (SMP) such that the embedded discrete time Markov chain may be non-homogeneous. The corresponding augmented processes are represented as semi-martingales using stochastic integral equation…

We develop a martingale approximation approach to studying the limiting behavior of quadratic forms of Markov chains. We use the technique to examine the asymptotic behavior of lag-window estimators in time series and we apply the results…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a powerful tool for sampling from complex probability distributions. Despite its versatility, MCMC often suffers from strong autocorrelation and the negative sign problem, leading to slowing down the…

In [1], we calibrated a one-factor Cheyette SLV model with a local volatility that is linear in the benchmark forward rate and an uncorrelated CIR stochastic variance to 3M caplets of various maturities. While caplet smiles for many…

We develop a GMM approach for estimation of log-normal stochastic volatility models driven by a fractional Brownian motion with unrestricted Hurst exponent. We show that a parameter estimator based on the integrated variance is consistent…

The Bass Local Volatility Model (Bass-LV), as studied in [Conze and Henry-Labordere, 2021], stands out for its ability to eliminate the need for interpolation between maturities. This offers a significant advantage over traditional LV…

Fluid approximations have seen great success in approximating the macro-scale behaviour of Markov systems with a large number of discrete states. However, these methods rely on the continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) having a particular…

Hybrid systems, and Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes in particular, are widely used to model and numerically study systems exhibiting multiple time scales in biochemical reaction kinetics and related areas. In this paper an almost…

We prove bounds on the variance of a function $f$ under the empirical measure of the samples obtained by the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm, with time complexity depending on local rather than global Markov chain mixing dynamics.…

In this work, we address the problem of formal safety verification for stochastic cyber-physical systems (CPS) equipped with ReLU neural network (NN) controllers. Our goal is to find the set of initial states from where, with a…

Numerous empirical proofs indicate the adequacy of the time discrete auto-regressive stochastic volatility models introduced by Taylor in the description of the log-returns of financial assets. The pricing and hedging of contingent products…

Rough volatility models are known to reproduce the behavior of historical volatility data while at the same time fitting the volatility surface remarkably well, with very few parameters. However, managing the risks of derivatives under…

We propose a novel framework for solving continuous-time non-Markovian stochastic control problems by means of neural rough differential equations (Neural RDEs) introduced in Morrill et al. (2021). Non-Markovianity naturally arises in…

We propose a quasi maximum likelihood estimation method for Bergomi-type stochastic volatility models with parametrized kernels, focusing on the estimation of the kernel parameters from high-frequency time-series observations of option…

This paper introduces the Markov-Switching Multifractal Duration (MSMD) model by adapting the MSM stochastic volatility model of Calvet and Fisher (2004) to the duration setting. Although the MSMD process is exponential $\beta$-mixing as we…

Monte Carlo (MC) simulations of transport in random porous networks indicate that for high variances of the log-normal permeability distribution, the transport of a passive tracer is non-Fickian. Here we model this non-Fickian dispersion in…

We develop and implement a non-parametric method for joint exact calibration of a local volatility model and a correlated stochastic short rate model using semimartingale optimal transport. The method relies on the duality results…

We prove finite sample complexities for sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms which require only local mixing times of the associated Markov kernels. Our bounds are particularly useful when the target distribution is multimodal and global…

In this paper we develop the elements of the theory of algorithmic randomness in continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs). Our main contribution is a rigorous, useful notion of what it means for an individual trajectory of a CTMC to be random.…