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Immediately following a disaster event, such as an earthquake, estimates of the damage extent play a key role in informing the coordination of response and recovery efforts. We develop a novel impact estimation tool that leverages a…

Applications · Statistics 2025-01-15 Max Anderson Loake , Hamish Patten , David Steinsaltz

Seismic fragility curves have been introduced as key components of Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment studies. They express the probability of failure of mechanical structures conditional to a seismic intensity measure and must take into…

Applications · Statistics 2022-10-13 Clement Gauchy , Cyril Feau , Josselin Garnier

Model-based geostatistical design involves the selection of locations to collect data to minimise an expected loss function over a set of all possible locations. The loss function is specified to reflect the aim of data collection, which,…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-03 S. G. Jagath Senarathne , Werner G. Müller , James M. McGree

Load forecasting has long been recognized as an important building block for all utility operational planning efforts. Over the recent years, it has become ever more challenging to make accurate forecasts due to the proliferation of…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2019-05-17 Guangrui Xie , Xi Chen , Yang Weng

Uncertainty of decisions in safety-critical engineering applications can be estimated on the basis of the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique of averaging over decision models. The use of decision tree (DT) models assists…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2010-12-03 Vitaly Schetinin , Jonathan Fieldsend , Derek Partridge , Wojtek Krzanowski , Richard Everson , Trevor Bailey , Adolfo Hernandez

The tilted-wave interferometer is a promising technique for the development of a reference measurement system for the highly accurate form measurement of aspheres and freeform surfaces. The technique combines interferometric measurements,…

We investigate solution methods for large-scale inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) via Bayesian inference. The Bayesian framework provides a statistical setting to infer uncertain parameters from noisy…

Applications · Statistics 2023-02-08 Mina Karimi , Mehrdad Massoudi , Kaushik Dayal , Matteo Pozzi

Recent advances in 3D Gaussian Splatting have enabled impressive photorealistic novel view synthesis. However, to transition from a pure rendering engine to a reliable spatial map for autonomous agents and safety-critical applications,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-03-25 Chamuditha Jayanga Galappaththige , Thomas Gottwald , Peter Stehr , Edgar Heinert , Niko Suenderhauf , Dimity Miller , Matthias Rottmann

Bayesian inference represents a principled way to incorporate Earth structure uncertainty in full-waveform moment tensor inversions, but traditional approaches generally require significant approximations that risk biasing the resulting…

Geophysics · Physics 2026-03-20 A. A. Saoulis , T. -S. Pham , A. M. G. Ferreira

In machine learning, accurately predicting the probability that a specific input is correct is crucial for risk management. This process, known as uncertainty (or confidence) estimation, is particularly important in mission-critical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-12 Gabriella Chouraqui , Liron Cohen , Gil Einziger , Liel Leman

Subclassification estimators are one of the methods used to estimate causal effects of interest using the propensity score. This method is more stable compared to other weighting methods, such as inverse probability weighting estimators, in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-22 Shunichiro Orihara , Tomotaka Momozaki

We introduce a novel Bayesian method that can detect multiple structural breaks in the mean and variance of a length $T$ time-series. Our method quantifies uncertainty by returning $\alpha$-level credible sets around the estimated locations…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-14 Davis Berlind , Lorenzo Cappello , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

In this work we use the in-situ accumulated stress monitoring technique to evaluate the evolution of the stress during the strain balancing of InAs/GaAs quantum dots and quantum posts. The comparison of these results with simulations and…

In the presence of modeling errors, the mainstream Bayesian methods seldom give a realistic account of uncertainties as they commonly underestimate the inherent variability of parameters. This problem is not due to any misconception in the…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-19 Omid Sedehi , Costas Papadimitriou , Lambros S. Katafygiotis

The 3D modelling of indoor environments and the generation of process simulations play an important role in factory and assembly planning. In brownfield planning cases existing data are often outdated and incomplete especially for older…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-05 Christina Petschnigg , Markus Spitzner , Lucas Weitzendorf , Jürgen Pilz

Numerical modeling of morphodynamics presents significant challenges in engineering due to uncertainties arising from inaccurate inputs, model errors, and limited computing resources. Accurate results are essential for optimizing strategies…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-07 Cédric Goeury , Fabien Souillé

Stress-strain curves, or more generally, stress functions, are an extremely important characterization of a material's mechanical properties. However, stress functions are often difficult to derive and are narrowly tailored to a specific…

Materials Science · Physics 2023-12-21 Garrett Blum , Ryan Doris , Diego Klabjan , Horacio Espinosa , Ron Szalkowski

Evaluating structural uncertainties associated with seismic imaging and target horizons can be of critical importance for decision-making related to oil and gas exploration and production. An important breakthrough for industrial…

Geophysics · Physics 2021-07-28 Jérémie Messud , Patrice Guillaume , Gilles Lambaré

Terrain elevation modeling for off-road navigation aims to accurately estimate changes in terrain geometry in real-time and quantify the corresponding uncertainties. Having precise estimations and uncertainties plays a crucial role in…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-08-11 Sanghun Jung , Daehoon Gwak , Byron Boots , James Hays

Constitutive model discovery refers to the task of identifying an appropriate model structure, usually from a predefined model library, while simultaneously inferring its material parameters. The data used for model discovery are measured…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-27 David Anton , Henning Wessels , Ulrich Römer , Alexander Henkes , Jorge-Humberto Urrea-Quintero