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This paper considers the identification of dynamic treatment effects with panel data, in complex designs where the treatment may not be binary and may not be absorbing. We first show that under no-anticipation and parallel-trends…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-23 Clément de Chaisemartin , Xavier D'Haultfœuille

In many applications, researchers are interested in the direct and indirect causal effects of a treatment or exposure on an outcome of interest. Mediation analysis offers a rigorous framework for identifying and estimating these causal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-08 Yizhen Xu , Numair Sani , AmirEmad Ghassami , Ilya Shpitser

In interventional health studies, causal mediation analysis can be employed to investigate mechanisms through which the intervention affects the targeted health outcome. Identifying direct and indirect (i.e. mediated) effects from empirical…

The increase in the use of mobile and wearable devices now allows dense assessment of mediating processes over time. For example, a pharmacological intervention may have an effect on smoking cessation via reductions in momentary withdrawal…

Mediation analysis is an important analytic tool commonly used in a broad range of scientific applications. In this article, we study the problem of mediation analysis when there are multivariate and conditionally dependent mediators, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-28 Lan Luo , Chengchun Shi , Jitao Wang , Zhenke Wu , Lexin Li

This paper shows how to use a randomized saturation experimental design to identify and estimate causal effects in the presence of spillovers--one person's treatment may affect another's outcome--and one-sided non-compliance--subjects can…

Causal decomposition analysis provides a way to identify mediators that contribute to health disparities between marginalized and non-marginalized groups. In particular, the degree to which a disparity would be reduced or remain after…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-16 Soojin Park , Suyeon Kang , Chioun Lee

The weighted controlled direct effect (WCDE) generalizes the standard controlled direct effect (CDE) by averaging over the mediator distribution, providing a robust estimate when treatment effects vary across mediator levels. This makes the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-09 Ruiyang Lin , Yongyi Guo , Kyra Gan

With reference to a single mediator context, this brief report presents a model-based strategy to estimate counterfactual direct and indirect effects when the response variable is ordinal and the mediator is binary. Postulating a logistic…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-25 Elena Stanghellini , Maria Kateri

We propose an approach to better inform treatment decisions at an individual level by adapting recent advances in average treatment effect estimation to conditional average treatment effect estimation. Our work is based on doubly robust…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-13 Aaron Fisher , Virginia Fisher

We demonstrate a comprehensive semiparametric approach to causal mediation analysis, addressing the complexities inherent in settings with longitudinal and continuous treatments, confounders, and mediators. Our methodology utilizes a…

We introduce a novel framework for decomposing interventional causal effects into synergistic, redundant, and unique components, building on the intuition of Partial Information Decomposition (PID) and the principle of M\"obius inversion.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-09-22 Abel Jansma

Mediation analysis plays a crucial role in causal inference as it can investigate the pathways through which treatment influences outcome. Most existing mediation analysis assumes that mediation effects are static and homogeneous within…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-02 Yijiao Zhang , Yubai Yuan , Yuexia Zhang , Zhongyi Zhu , Annie Qu

Transported mediation effects may contribute to understanding how and why interventions may work differently when applied to new populations. However, we are not aware of any estimators for such effects. Thus, we propose several different…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-16 Kara E Rudolph , Jonathan Levy , Mark J van der Laan

The presence of intermediate confounders, also called recanting witnesses, is a fundamental challenge to the investigation of causal mechanisms in mediation analysis, preventing the identification of natural path-specific effects. Proposed…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-10 Tat-Thang Vo , Nicholas Williams , Richard Liu , Kara E. Rudolph , Ivan Dıaz

Most of the literature on direct and indirect effects assumes that there are no post-treatment common causes of the mediator and the outcome. In contrast to natural direct and indirect effects, organic direct and indirect effects, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-10 Judith J Lok

In settings where interference is present, direct effects are commonly defined as the average effect of a unit's treatment on their own outcome while fixing the treatment status or probability among interfering units, and spillover effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-10 Fei Fang , Edoardo M Airoldi , Laura Forastiere

We consider mediated effects of an exposure, X on an outcome, Y, via a mediator, M, under no unmeasured confounding assumptions in the setting where models for the conditional expectation of the mediator and outcome are partially linear. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-08 Oliver Hines , Stijn Vansteelandt , Karla Diaz-Ordaz

Understanding and characterizing treatment effect variation in randomized experiments has become essential for going beyond the "black box" of the average treatment effect. Nonetheless, traditional statistical approaches often ignore or…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-07-31 Peng Ding , Avi Feller , Luke Miratrix

Causal mediation analysis is complicated with multiple effect definitions that require different sets of assumptions for identification. This paper provides a systematic explanation of such assumptions. We define five potential outcome…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-26 Trang Quynh Nguyen , Ian Schmid , Elizabeth L. Ogburn , Elizabeth A. Stuart
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