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Meta-Learning is a family of methods that use a set of interrelated tasks to learn a model that can quickly learn a new query task from a possibly small contextual dataset. In this study, we use a probabilistic framework to formalize what…

We develop an algorithm for computing bounded reachability probability for hybrid systems, i.e., the probability that the system reaches an unsafe region within a finite number of discrete transitions. In particular, we focus on hybrid…

We present a new method to propagate lower bounds on conditional probability distributions in conventional Bayesian networks. Our method guarantees to provide outer approximations of the exact lower bounds. A key advantage is that we can…

Optimal design of experiments for Bayesian inverse problems has recently gained wide popularity and attracted much attention, especially in the computational science and Bayesian inversion communities. An optimal design maximizes a…

We propose a method to improve the efficiency and accuracy of amortized Bayesian inference by leveraging universal symmetries in the joint probabilistic model of parameters and data. In a nutshell, we invert Bayes' theorem and estimate the…

In the Bayesian approach to sequential decision making, exact calculation of the (subjective) utility is intractable. This extends to most special cases of interest, such as reinforcement learning problems. While utility bounds are known to…

The paper solves the problem of optimal portfolio choice when the parameters of the asset returns distribution, like the mean vector and the covariance matrix are unknown and have to be estimated by using historical data of the asset…

In the Bayesian approach, the a priori knowledge about the input of a mathematical model is described via a probability measure. The joint distribution of the unknown input and the data is then conditioned, using Bayes' formula, giving rise…

Applying a machine learning model for decision-making in the real world requires to distinguish what the model knows from what it does not. A critical factor in assessing the knowledge of a model is to quantify its predictive uncertainty.…

Chance constrained program where one seeks to minimize an objective over decisions which satisfy randomly disturbed constraints with a given probability is computationally intractable. This paper proposes an approximate approach to address…

In this paper we present a new error bound on sampling algorithms for frequent itemsets mining. We show that the new bound is asymptotically tighter than the state-of-art bounds, i.e., given the chosen samples, for small enough error…

In this paper, our interest is in the problem of simultaneous hypothesis testing when the test statistics corresponding to the individual hypotheses are possibly correlated. Specifically, we consider the case when the test statistics…

We consider the problem of estimating the mean of a sequence of random elements $f(X_1, \theta)$ $, \ldots, $ $f(X_n, \theta)$ where $f$ is a fixed scalar function, $S=(X_1, \ldots, X_n)$ are independent random variables, and $\theta$ is a…

Bagging is a commonly used ensemble technique in statistics and machine learning to improve the performance of prediction procedures. In this paper, we study the prediction risk of variants of bagged predictors under the proportional…

Covariance estimation and selection for multivariate datasets in a high-dimensional regime is a fundamental problem in modern statistics. Gaussian graphical models are a popular class of models used for this purpose. Current Bayesian…

We derive the optimal measurement for quantum state discrimination without a priori probabilities, i.e. in a minimax strategy instead of the usually considered Bayesian one. We consider both minimal-error and unambiguous discrimination…

Data-driven risk analysis involves the inference of probability distributions from measured or simulated data. In the case of a highly reliable system, such as the electricity grid, the amount of relevant data is often exceedingly limited,…

Adversarial examples pose a security threat to many critical systems built on neural networks. Given that deterministic robustness often comes with significantly reduced accuracy, probabilistic robustness (i.e., the probability of having…

Missing values arise in most real-world data sets due to the aggregation of multiple sources and intrinsically missing information (sensor failure, unanswered questions in surveys...). In fact, the very nature of missing values usually…

Using differential geometry, I derive a form of the Bayesian Cram\'er-Rao bound that remains invariant under reparametrization. With the invariant formulation at hand, I find the optimal and naturally invariant bound among the Gill-Levit…