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Machine learning systems deployed in the real world must operate under dynamic and often unpredictable distribution shifts. This challenges the validity of statistical safety assurances on the system's risk established beforehand. Common…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-23 Alexander Timans , Rajeev Verma , Eric Nalisnick , Christian A. Naesseth

We introduce a novel approach for detecting distribution shifts that negatively impact the performance of machine learning models in continuous production environments, which requires no access to ground truth data labels. It builds upon…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-18 Salim I. Amoukou , Tom Bewley , Saumitra Mishra , Freddy Lecue , Daniele Magazzeni , Manuela Veloso

As input data distributions evolve, the predictive performance of machine learning models tends to deteriorate. In practice, new input data tend to come without target labels. Then, state-of-the-art techniques model input data distributions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-08 Carlos Mougan , Klaus Broelemann , David Masip , Gjergji Kasneci , Thanassis Thiropanis , Steffen Staab

Classifier predictions often rely on the assumption that new observations come from the same distribution as training data. When the underlying distribution changes, so does the optimal classification rule, and performance may degrade. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-01 Ciaran Evans , Max G'Sell

As the use of machine learning in high impact domains becomes widespread, the importance of evaluating safety has increased. An important aspect of this is evaluating how robust a model is to changes in setting or population, which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-16 Adarsh Subbaswamy , Roy Adams , Suchi Saria

Despite achieving excellent performance on benchmarks, deep neural networks often underperform in real-world deployment due to sensitivity to minor, often imperceptible shifts in input data, known as distributional shifts. These shifts are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-25 Birk Torpmann-Hagen , Pål Halvorsen , Michael A. Riegler , Dag Johansen

Machine learning models are essential tools in various domains, but their performance can degrade over time due to changes in data distribution or other factors. On one hand, detecting and addressing such degradations is crucial for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-28 Florian Heinrichs

Most research designing novel predictive models, or employing existing ones, assumes that training and testing data are independent and identically distributed. In practice, the data encountered at serving time often deviate from the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-30 Hanyu Duan , Yi Yang , Ahmed Abbasi , Kar Yan Tam

The distribution of data changes over time; models operating in dynamic environments need retraining. But knowing when to retrain, without access to labels, is an open challenge since some, but not all shifts degrade model performance. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-05 Viet Nguyen , Changjian Shui , Vijay Giri , Siddharth Arya , Amol Verma , Fahad Razak , Rahul G. Krishnan

A trained ML model is deployed on another `test' dataset where target feature values (labels) are unknown. Drift is distribution change between the training and deployment data, which is concerning if model performance changes. For a…

Applications · Statistics 2022-09-07 Samuel Ackerman , Eitan Farchi , Orna Raz , Marcel Zalmanovici , Parijat Dube

The performance of machine learning models relies heavily on the quality of input data, yet real-world applications often face significant data-related challenges. A common issue arises when curating training data or deploying models: two…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-24 Varun Babbar , Zhicheng Guo , Cynthia Rudin

Diagnosing and mitigating changes in model fairness under distribution shift is an important component of the safe deployment of machine learning in healthcare settings. Importantly, the success of any mitigation strategy strongly depends…

We study the problem of monitoring model performance in dynamic environments where labeled data are limited. To this end, we propose prediction-powered risk monitoring (PPRM), a semi-supervised risk-monitoring approach based on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Guangyi Zhang , Yunlong Cai , Guanding Yu , Osvaldo Simeone

Most machine learning models operate under the assumption that the training, testing and deployment data is independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.). This assumption doesn't generally hold true in a natural setting. Usually, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-14 Kumud Lakara , Akshat Bhandari , Pratinav Seth , Ujjwal Verma

Distribution shifts are common in real-world datasets and can affect the performance and reliability of deep learning models. In this paper, we study two types of distribution shifts: diversity shifts, which occur when test samples exhibit…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-12-22 Alceu Bissoto , Catarina Barata , Eduardo Valle , Sandra Avila

Spurious correlations in training data significantly hinder the generalization capability of machine learning models when faced with distribution shifts, leading to the proposition of numberous debiasing methods. However, it remains to be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-22 Peng Kuang , Zhibo Wang , Zhixuan Chu , Jingyi Wang , Kui Ren

Distribution shift occurs when the test distribution differs from the training distribution, and it can considerably degrade performance of machine learning models deployed in the real world. Temporal shifts -- distribution shifts arising…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-18 Huaxiu Yao , Caroline Choi , Bochuan Cao , Yoonho Lee , Pang Wei Koh , Chelsea Finn

Distribution shift is a common situation in machine learning tasks, where the data used for training a model is different from the data the model is applied to in the real world. This issue arises across multiple technical settings: from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-24 Nicolas Acevedo , Carmen Cortez , Chris Brooks , Rene Kizilcec , Renzhe Yu

Machine learning algorithms have grown in sophistication over the years and are increasingly deployed for real-life applications. However, when using machine learning techniques in practical settings, particularly in high-risk applications…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-06 Sukrita Singh , Neeraj Sarna , Yuanyuan Li , Yang Li , Agni Orfanoudaki , Michael Berger

Performance monitoring is essential for safe clinical deployment of image classification models. However, because ground-truth labels are typically unavailable in the target dataset, direct assessment of real-world model performance is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-31 Tim Flühmann , Alceu Bissoto , Trung-Dung Hoang , Lisa M. Koch
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