English
Related papers

Related papers: Optional P\'olya trees: posterior rates and uncert…

200 papers

Density Estimation Trees can play an important role in exploratory data analysis for multidimensional, multi-modal data models of large samples. I briefly discuss the algorithm, a self-optimization technique based on kernel density…

Applications · Statistics 2015-02-04 Lucio Anderlini

We determine the limit of the expected value and the variance of the protection number of the root in simply generated trees, in P\'olya trees, and in unlabelled non-plane binary trees, when the number of vertices tends to infinity.…

In solving Bayesian inverse problems, it is often desirable to use a common density parameterization to denote the prior and posterior. Typically we seek a density from the same family as the prior which closely approximates the true…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-03-29 Xiao-Mei Yang , Zhi-Liang Deng

The most fundamental problem in statistical causality is determining causal relationships from limited data. Probability trees, which combine prior causal structures with Bayesian updates, have been suggested as a possible solution. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-19 Tue Herlau

Infinite-order U-statistics (IOUS) has been used extensively on subbagging ensemble learning algorithms such as random forests to quantify its uncertainty. While normality results of IOUS have been studied extensively, its variance…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-16 Tianning Xu , Ruoqing Zhu , Xiaofeng Shao

Pairwise ordered tree alignment are combinatorial objects that appear in RNA secondary structure comparison. However, the usual representation of tree alignments as supertrees is ambiguous, i.e. two distinct supertrees may induce identical…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2016-03-08 Cedric Chauve , Julien Courtiel , Yann Ponty

We advocate for a new statistical principle that combines the most desirable aspects of both parameter inference and density estimation. This leads us to the predictively oriented (PrO) posterior, which expresses uncertainty as a…

When the cost of misclassifying a sample is high, it is useful to have an accurate estimate of uncertainty in the prediction for that sample. There are also multiple types of uncertainty which are best estimated in different ways, for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-18 Richard Harang , Ethan M. Rudd

There is a widespread and longstanding belief that machine learning models are biased towards the majority class when learning from imbalanced binary response data, leading them to neglect or ignore the minority class. Motivated by a recent…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-29 Nathan Phelps , Daniel J. Lizotte , Douglas G. Woolford

Probabilistic Regression refers to predicting a full probability density function for the target conditional on the features. We present a nonparametric approach to this problem which combines base classifiers (typically gradient boosted…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-31 Brian Lucena

Uncertainty is the only certainty there is. Modeling data uncertainty is essential for regression, especially in unconstrained settings. Traditionally the direct regression formulation is considered and the uncertainty is modeled by…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-03-26 Wanhua Li , Xiaoke Huang , Jiwen Lu , Jianjiang Feng , Jie Zhou

This work considers a number of optimization problems and reductive relations between them. The two main problems we are interested in are the \emph{Optimal Decision Tree} and \emph{Set Cover}. We study these two fundamental tasks under…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2026-03-23 Michał Szyfelbein , Dariusz Dereniowski

Reliable predictive uncertainty estimation plays an important role in enabling the deployment of neural networks to safety-critical settings. A popular approach for estimating the predictive uncertainty of neural networks is to define a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-29 Tim G. J. Rudner , Zonghao Chen , Yee Whye Teh , Yarin Gal

We design a new, fast algorithm for agnostically learning univariate probability distributions whose densities are well approximated by piecewise polynomial functions. Let $f$ be the density function of an arbitrary univariate distribution,…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2015-06-03 Jayadev Acharya , Ilias Diakonikolas , Jerry Li , Ludwig Schmidt

Frequentist-style large-sample properties of Bayesian posterior distributions, such as consistency and convergence rates, are important considerations in nonparametric problems. In this paper we give an analysis of Bayesian asymptotics…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-10-02 Ryan Martin , Liang Hong

This study is dedicated to precise distributional analyses of the height of non-plane unlabelled binary trees ("Otter trees"), when trees of a given size are taken with equal likelihood. The height of a rooted tree of size $n$ is proved to…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-11-12 Nicolas Broutin , Philippe Flajolet

In distributionally robust optimization the probability distribution of the uncertain problem parameters is itself uncertain, and a fictitious adversary, e.g., nature, chooses the worst distribution from within a known ambiguity set. A…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-05-10 Etienne de Klerk , Daniel Kuhn , Krzysztof Postek

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods provide an elaborate approach to Bayesian inference on complex models, including model choice. Both theoretical arguments and simulation experiments indicate, however, that model posterior…

We obtain new non-asymptotic tail bounds for the height of uniformly random trees with a given degree sequence, simply generated trees and conditioned Bienaym\'e trees (the family trees of branching processes), in the process settling three…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-03-11 Louigi Addario-Berry , Serte Donderwinkel

The family of log-concave density functions contains various kinds of common probability distributions. Due to the shape restriction, it is possible to find the nonparametric estimate of the density, for example, the nonparametric maximum…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-29 Fuheng Cui , Stephen G. Walker