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This paper develops a novel nonparametric significance test based on a tailored nonparametric-type projected weighting function that exhibits appealing theoretical and numerical properties. We derive the asymptotic properties of the…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-18 Xiaojun Song , Jichao Yuan

This paper is concerned with modeling the dependence structure of two (or more) time-series in the presence of a (possible multivariate) covariate which may include past values of the time series. We assume that the covariate influences…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-12-11 Natalie Neumeyer , Marek Omelka , Sarka Hudecova

A weakly dependent time series regression model with multivariate covariates and univariate observations is considered, for which we develop a procedure to detect whether the nonparametric conditional mean function is stable in time against…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-25 Maria Mohr , Natalie Neumeyer

This paper proposes the cross-quantilogram to measure the quantile dependence between two time series. We apply it to test the hypothesis that one time series has no directional predictability to another time series. We establish the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-23 Heejoon Han , Oliver Linton , Tatsushi Oka , Yoon-Jae Whang

The conditional randomization test (CRT) was recently proposed to test whether two random variables X and Y are conditionally independent given random variables Z. The CRT assumes that the conditional distribution of X given Z is known…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-11 Shuai Li , Ziqi Chen , Hongtu Zhu , Christina Dan Wang , Wang Wen

In spatio-temporal analysis, we often record data at specific time intervals but with varying spatial locations between these timepoints. We propose a conditional model to analyze such spatio-temporal data that accommodates the dependencies…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-03 Subhrajyoty Roy , Soudeep Deb , Sayar Karmakar , Rishideep Roy

This article proposes a novel test for the martingale difference hypothesis based on the martingale difference divergence function, a recently developed dependence measure suitable for measuring the degree of conditional mean dependence of…

Applications · Statistics 2023-11-10 Luca Mattia Rolla

We seek to narrow the gap between parametric and nonparametric modelling of stationary time series processes. The approach is inspired by recent advances in focused inference and model selection techniques. The paper generalises and extends…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-20 Gudmund Hermansen , Nils Lid Hjort , Martin Jullum

Temporal data are increasingly prevalent in modern data science. A fundamental question is whether two time series are related or not. Existing approaches often have limitations, such as relying on parametric assumptions, detecting only…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-29 Cencheng Shen , Jaewon Chung , Ronak Mehta , Ting Xu , Joshua T. Vogelstein

In this paper an autoregressive time series model with conditional heteroscedasticity is considered, where both conditional mean and conditional variance function are modeled nonparametrically. A test for the model assumption of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-10-12 Marie Hušková , Natalie Neumeyer , Tobias Niebuhr , Leonie Selk

In recent work, Azadkia and Chatterjee (2021) laid out an ingenious approach to defining consistent measures of conditional dependence. Their fully nonparametric approach forms statistics based on ranks and nearest neighbor graphs. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-09-26 Hongjian Shi , Mathias Drton , Fang Han

The partial copula provides a method for describing the dependence between two random variables $X$ and $Y$ conditional on a third random vector $Z$ in terms of nonparametric residuals $U_1$ and $U_2$. This paper develops a nonparametric…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-30 Lasse Petersen , Niels Richard Hansen

Conditional mean independence (CMI) testing is crucial for statistical tasks including model determination and variable importance evaluation. In this work, we introduce a novel population CMI measure and a bootstrap-based testing procedure…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-30 Yi Zhang , Linjun Huang , Yun Yang , Xiaofeng Shao

In this paper we propose a nonparametric procedure for validating the assumption of stationarity in multivariate locally stationary time series models. We develop a bootstrap assisted test based on a Kolmogorov-Smirnov type statistic, which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-12-06 Ruprecht Puchstein , Philip Preuß

Statistical inference for stochastic processes with time-varying spectral characteristics has received considerable attention in recent decades. We develop a nonparametric test for stationarity against the alternative of a smoothly…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-01-14 Efstathios Paparoditis

The aim of sequential change-point detection is to issue an alarm when it is thought that certain probabilistic properties of the monitored observations have changed. This work is concerned with nonparametric, closed-end testing procedures…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-27 Ivan Kojadinovic , Ghislain Verdier

Conditional independence (CI) testing arises naturally in many scientific problems and applications domains. The goal of this problem is to investigate the conditional independence between a response variable $Y$ and another variable $X$,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-07 Adel Javanmard , Mohammad Mehrabi

This paper develops a model-free sequential test for conditional independence. The proposed test allows researchers to analyze an incoming i.i.d. data stream with any arbitrary dependency structure, and safely conclude whether a feature is…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-21 Shalev Shaer , Gal Maman , Yaniv Romano

Motivated by applications in biological science, we propose a novel test to assess the conditional mean dependence of a response variable on a large number of covariates. Our procedure is built on the martingale difference divergence…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-01-31 Xianyang Zhang , Shun Yao , Xiaofeng Shao

We propose a specification test for conditional location--scale models based on extremal dependence properties of the standardized residuals. We do so comparing the left-over serial extremal dependence -- as measured by the pre-asymptotic…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-05 Yannick Hoga