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Recent works propose using the discriminator of a GAN to filter out unrealistic samples of the generator. We generalize these ideas by introducing the implicit Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. For any implicit probabilistic model and a target…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-11 Kirill Neklyudov , Evgenii Egorov , Dmitry Vetrov

We consider the approximation of expectations with respect to the distribution of a latent Markov process given noisy measurements. This is known as the smoothing problem and is often approached with particle and Markov chain Monte Carlo…

Computation · Statistics 2019-02-06 Lawrence Middleton , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet , Pierre E. Jacob

We study a novel large dimensional approximate factor model with regime changes in the loadings driven by a latent first order Markov process. By exploiting the equivalent linear representation of the model, we first recover the latent…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-04 Matteo Barigozzi , Daniele Massacci

Particle Marginal Metropolis-Hastings (PMMH) is a general approach to Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable, but can be estimated unbiasedly. Our article develops an efficient PMMH method that scales up better to higher…

Computation · Statistics 2023-05-10 David Gunawan , Pratiti Chatterjee , Robert Kohn

We present an importance sampling algorithm that can produce realisations of Markovian epidemic models that exactly match observations, taken to be the number of a single event type over a period of time. The importance sampling can be used…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-08-16 Andrew J. Black

Stochastic gradient methods are the workhorse (algorithms) of large-scale optimization problems in machine learning, signal processing, and other computational sciences and engineering. This paper studies Markov chain gradient descent, a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-09-13 Tao Sun , Yuejiao Sun , Wotao Yin

Optimal designs minimize the number of experimental runs (samples) needed to accurately estimate model parameters, resulting in algorithms that, for instance, efficiently minimize parameter estimate variance. Governed by knowledge of past…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-03 Nicholas W. Barendregt , Emily G. Webb , Zachary P. Kilpatrick

The ability to generate samples of the random effects from their conditional distributions is fundamental for inference in mixed effects models. Random walk Metropolis is widely used to perform such sampling, but this method is known to…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-29 Belhal Karimi , Marc Lavielle , Eric Moulines

MCMC algorithms such as Metropolis-Hastings algorithms are slowed down by the computation of complex target distributions as exemplified by huge datasets. We offer in this paper an approach to reduce the computational costs of such…

Computation · Statistics 2014-06-11 Marco Banterle , Clara Grazian , Christian P. Robert

Adaptive importance sampling is a powerful tool to sample from complicated target densities, but its success depends sensitively on the initial proposal density. An algorithm is presented to automatically perform the initialization using…

Computation · Statistics 2013-05-01 Frederik Beaujean , Allen Caldwell

In this paper, we build and explore supervised learning models of ferromagnetic system behavior, using Monte-Carlo sampling of the spin configuration space generated by the 2D Ising model. Given the enormous size of the space of all…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-09-06 Nataliya Portman , Isaac Tamblyn

It has become increasingly easy nowadays to collect approximate posterior samples via fast algorithms such as variational Bayes, but concerns exist about the estimation accuracy. It is tempting to build solutions that exploit approximate…

Computation · Statistics 2024-06-17 Leo L. Duan , Anirban Bhattacharya

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods have become popular in statistics as versatile techniques to sample from complicated probability distributions. In this work, we propose a method to parameterize and train transition kernels of Markov chains…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Evgenii Egorov , Ricardo Valperga , Efstratios Gavves

The multiple-try Metropolis (MTM) algorithm is an extension of the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm by selecting the proposed state among multiple trials according to some weight function. Although MTM has gained great popularity owing to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-17 Hyunwoong Chang , Changwoo J. Lee , Zhao Tang Luo , Huiyan Sang , Quan Zhou

We consider a linear stochastic fluid network under Markov modulation, with a focus on the probability that the joint storage level attains a value in a rare set at a given point in time. The main objective is to develop efficient…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-05-09 Onno Boxma , Ewan Cahen , David Koops , Michel Mandjes

In parameter estimation problems one computes a posterior distribution over uncertain parameters defined jointly by a prior distribution, a model, and noisy data. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is often used for the numerical solution of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-11-15 Matthias Morzfeld , Marcus S. Day , Ray W. Grout , George Shu Heng Pau , Stefan A. Finsterle , John B. Bell

This article develops a general-purpose adaptive sampler that approximates the target density by a mixture of multivariate t densities. The adaptive sampler is based on reversible proposal distributions each of which has the mixture of…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-08-22 Minh-Ngoc Tran , Michael K. Pitt , Robert Kohn

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for prediction- and information extraction tasks with an efficient inference scheme. It models categorical-valued time series that exhibit dynamics from multiple underlying patterns (e.g.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-06-21 Jan Reubold , Thorsten Strufe , Ulf Brefeld

This work develops a powerful and versatile framework for determining acceptance ratios in Metropolis-Hastings type Markov kernels widely used in statistical sampling problems. Our approach allows us to derive new classes of kernels which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-07-21 Nathan E. Glatt-Holtz , Justin A. Krometis , Cecilia F. Mondaini

We present an efficient algorithm for the inference of stochastic block models in large networks. The algorithm can be used as an optimized Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, with a fast mixing time and a much reduced susceptibility to…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2014-01-14 Tiago P. Peixoto