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We establish the weak large deviations principle for empirical measures of Markov chains on $\mathbb R^d$ under mild assumptions. In particular, no irreducibility is assumed and the initial measure may be arbitrary. The proof is entirely…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-24 Léo Daures

This paper studies Hoeffding's inequality for Markov chains under the generalized concentrability condition defined via integral probability metric (IPM). The generalized concentrability condition establishes a framework that interpolates…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-06 Hao Chen , Abhishek Gupta , Yin Sun , Ness Shroff

Reversibility is a key property of Markov chains, central to algorithms such as Metropolis-Hastings and other MCMC methods. Yet many applications yield non-reversible chains, motivating the problem of approximating them by reversible ones…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-02-27 Stefano Cipolla , Fabio Durastante , Miryam Gnazzo , Beatrice Meini

We study the task of learning from non-i.i.d. data. In particular, we aim at learning predictors that minimize the conditional risk for a stochastic process, i.e. the expected loss of the predictor on the next point conditioned on the set…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-03-15 Alexander Zimin , Christoph H. Lampert

In the context of supervised statistical learning, it is typically assumed that the training set comes from the same distribution that draws the test samples. When this is not the case, the behavior of the learned model is unpredictable and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-12 Antonio-Javier Gallego , Jorge Calvo-Zaragoza , Robert B. Fisher

Markov random fields area popular model for high-dimensional probability distributions. Over the years, many mathematical, statistical and algorithmic problems on them have been studied. Until recently, the only known algorithms for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-06-01 Linus Hamilton , Frederic Koehler , Ankur Moitra

Machine learning methods have proved to be useful for the recognition of patterns in statistical data. The measurement outcomes are intrinsically random in quantum physics, however, they do have a pattern when the measurements are performed…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2020-04-14 I. A. Luchnikov , S. V. Vintskevich , D. A. Grigoriev , S. N. Filippov

The identification of a linear system model from data has wide applications in control theory. The existing work that provides finite sample guarantees for linear system identification typically uses data from a single long system…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-09 Lei Xin , Baike She , Qi Dou , George Chiu , Shreyas Sundaram

This work considers the problem of learning the Markov parameters of a linear system from observed data. Recent non-asymptotic system identification results have characterized the sample complexity of this problem in the single and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-12-09 Han Wang , James Anderson

Data from experiments and theoretical arguments are the two pillars sustaining the job of modelling physical systems through inference. In order to solve the inference problem, the data should satisfy certain conditions that depend also…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-03-01 Dario Lucente , Andrea Baldassarri , Andrea Puglisi , Angelo Vulpiani , Massimiliano Viale

This paper investigates the supervised learning problem with observations drawn from certain general stationary stochastic processes. Here by \emph{general}, we mean that many stationary stochastic processes can be included. We show that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-05-11 Hanyuan Hang , Yunlong Feng , Ingo Steinwart , Johan A. K. Suykens

We extend Hoeffding's lemma to general-state-space and not necessarily reversible Markov chains. Let $\{X_i\}_{i \ge 1}$ be a stationary Markov chain with invariant measure $\pi$ and absolute spectral gap $1-\lambda$, where $\lambda$ is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-19 Jianqing Fan , Bai Jiang , Qiang Sun

We consider symmetric Markov chains on $\Bbb Z^d$ where we do {\bf not} assume that the conductance between two points must be zero if the points are far apart. Under a uniform second moment condition on the conductances, we obtain upper…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Richard F. Bass , Takashi Kumagai

A popular approach to semi-supervised learning proceeds by endowing the input data with a graph structure in order to extract geometric information and incorporate it into a Bayesian framework. We introduce new theory that gives appropriate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-14 Nicolas Garcia Trillos , Zachary Kaplan , Thabo Samakhoana , Daniel Sanz-Alonso

We initiate a study of supervised learning from many independent sequences ("trajectories") of non-independent covariates, reflecting tasks in sequence modeling, control, and reinforcement learning. Conceptually, our multi-trajectory setup…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-01 Stephen Tu , Roy Frostig , Mahdi Soltanolkotabi

Imprecise continuous-time Markov chains are a robust type of continuous-time Markov chains that allow for partially specified time-dependent parameters. Computing inferences for them requires the solution of a non-linear differential…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-11 Alexander Erreygers , Jasper De Bock

Learning-based methods for inverse problems, adapting to the data's inherent structure, have become ubiquitous in the last decade. Besides empirical investigations of their often remarkable performance, an increasing number of works…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-07-21 Clemens Arndt , Sören Dittmer , Nick Heilenkötter , Meira Iske , Tobias Kluth , Judith Nickel

We study stochastic approximation procedures for approximately solving a $d$-dimensional linear fixed point equation based on observing a trajectory of length $n$ from an ergodic Markov chain. We first exhibit a non-asymptotic bound of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-05-14 Wenlong Mou , Ashwin Pananjady , Martin J. Wainwright , Peter L. Bartlett

We study a stochastic optimization problem in which the sampling distribution depends on the decision variable, and the available samples are generated through an iterate-dependent Markov chain. Such settings arise naturally in problems…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-18 Anik Kumar Paul , Shalabh Bhatnagar

The use of machine learning methods for predictive purposes has increased dramatically over the past two decades, but uncertainty quantification for predictive comparisons remains elusive. This paper addresses this gap by extending the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-09 Juan Carlos Escanciano , Ricardo Parra