Related papers: Uncertainty quantification in the Bradley-Terry-Lu…

Maximum likelihood estimators are used extensively to estimate unknown parameters of stochastic trait evolution models on phylogenetic trees. Although the MLE has been proven to converge to the true value in the independent-sample case, we…

Many properties in the real world don't have metrics and can't be numerically observed, making them difficult to learn. To deal with this challenging problem, prior works have primarily focused on estimating those properties by using graded…

Rule-based classification models described in the language of logic directly predict boolean values, rather than modeling a probability and translating it into a prediction as done in statistical models. The vast majority of existing…

Unlike the commonly used parametric regression models such as mixed models, that can easily violate the required statistical assumptions and result in invalid statistical inference, target maximum likelihood estimation allows more realistic…

The Bradley-Terry (BT) model is a common and successful practice in reward modeling for Large Language Model (LLM) alignment. However, it remains unclear why this model -- originally developed for multi-player stochastic game matching --…

Effectively measuring and modeling the reliability of a trained model is essential to the real-world deployment of monocular depth estimation (MDE) models. However, the intrinsic ill-posedness and ordinal-sensitive nature of MDE pose major…

The extreme value index is a fundamental parameter in univariate Extreme Value Theory (EVT). It captures the tail behavior of a distribution and is central in the extrapolation beyond observed data. Among other semi-parametric methods (such…

In this work, we present a linear uncertainty (LU) propagation treatment of measurement and model uncertainties in multiline thru-reflect-line (TRL) calibration. The proposed method is in accordance with the ISO Guide to the Expression of…

Skew normal model suffers from inferential drawbacks, namely singular Fisher information in the vicinity of symmetry and diverging of maximum likelihood estimation. To address the above drawbacks, Azzalini and Arellano-Valle (2013)…

In this work, we revisit the estimation of the model parameters of a Weibull distribution based on iid observations, using the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method which does not yield closed expressions of the estimators. Among other…

We define a Maximum Likelihood (ML for short) estimator for the correlation function, {\xi}, that uses the same pair counting observables (D, R, DD, DR, RR) as the standard Landy and Szalay (1993, LS for short) estimator. The ML estimator…

Bayesian Last Layers (BLLs) provide a convenient and computationally efficient way to estimate uncertainty in neural networks. However, they underestimate epistemic uncertainty because they apply a Bayesian treatment only to the final…

Consider a parametrized family of general hidden Markov models, where both the observed and unobserved components take values in a complete separable metric space. We prove that the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the parameter is…

With the widespread application of Large Language Models (LLMs) to various domains, concerns regarding the trustworthiness of LLMs in safety-critical scenarios have been raised, due to their unpredictable tendency to hallucinate and…

Uncertainty quantification in automated image analysis is highly desired in many applications. Typically, machine learning models in classification or segmentation are only developed to provide binary answers; however, quantifying the…

As LLM-as-a-Judge emerges as a new paradigm for assessing large language models (LLMs), concerns have been raised regarding the alignment, bias, and stability of LLM evaluators. While substantial work has focused on alignment and bias,…

Transformer-based language models have set new benchmarks across a wide range of NLP tasks, yet reliably estimating the uncertainty of their predictions remains a significant challenge. Existing uncertainty estimation (UE) techniques often…

Motivated by studying asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) in stochastic volatility (SV) models, in this paper we investigate likelihood estimation in state space models. We first prove, under some regularity…

In recent years, Large Language Models (LLMs) have become fundamental to a broad spectrum of artificial intelligence applications. As the use of LLMs expands, precisely estimating the uncertainty in their predictions has become crucial.…

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have achieved remarkable progress in complex visual understanding across scientific and reasoning tasks. While performance benchmarking has advanced our understanding of these capabilities, the critical…