Related papers: Propagating State Uncertainty Through Trajectory F…

Trajectory prediction models often fail in real-world automated driving due to distributional shifts between training and test conditions. Such distributional shifts, whether behavioural or environmental, pose a critical risk by causing the…

Robust motion forecasting of the dynamic scene is a critical component of an autonomous vehicle. It is a challenging problem due to the heterogeneity in the scene and the inherent uncertainties in the problem. To improve the accuracy of…

We propose a learning-based robust predictive control algorithm that compensates for significant uncertainty in the dynamics for a class of discrete-time systems that are nominally linear with an additive nonlinear component. Such systems…

Accurately predicting the dynamics of robotic systems is crucial for model-based control and reinforcement learning. The most common way to estimate dynamics is by fitting a one-step ahead prediction model and using it to recursively…

Trajectory optimization with contact-rich behaviors has recently gained attention for generating diverse locomotion behaviors without pre-specified ground contact sequences. However, these approaches rely on precise models of robot dynamics…

A new method for estimating tropical cyclone track uncertainty is presented and tested. This method uses a neural network to predict a bivariate normal distribution, which serves as an estimate for track uncertainty. We train the network…

Human trajectory forecasting is a critical challenge in fields such as robotics and autonomous driving. Due to the inherent uncertainty of human actions and intentions in real-world scenarios, various unexpected occurrences may arise. To…

As the world increasingly relies on mathematical models for forecasts in different areas, effective communication of uncertainty in time series predictions is important for informed decision making. This study explores how users estimate…

Trajectory prediction is one of the key components of the autonomous driving software stack. Accurate prediction for the future movement of surrounding traffic participants is an important prerequisite for ensuring the driving efficiency…

Autonomous systems operating in unknown environments often rely heavily on visual sensor data, yet making safe and informed control decisions based on these measurements remains a significant challenge. To facilitate the integration of…

Uncertainty calibration in pre-trained transformers is critical for their reliable deployment in risk-sensitive applications. Yet, most existing pre-trained transformers do not have a principled mechanism for uncertainty propagation through…

Predicting human behavior is a difficult and crucial task required for motion planning. It is challenging in large part due to the highly uncertain and multi-modal set of possible outcomes in real-world domains such as autonomous driving.…

When ignorance due to the lack of knowledge, modeled as epistemic uncertainty using Dempster-Shafer structures on closed intervals, is present in the model parameters, a new uncertainty propagation method is necessary to propagate both…

Sparsity is a common issue in many trajectory datasets, including human mobility data. This issue frequently brings more difficulty to relevant learning tasks, such as trajectory imputation and prediction. Nowadays, little existing work…

Probabilistic inference problems arise naturally in distributed systems such as sensor networks and teams of mobile robots. Inference algorithms that use message passing are a natural fit for distributed systems, but they must be robust to…

Probabilistic forecasting provides a principled framework for uncertainty quantification in dynamical systems by representing predictions as probability distributions rather than deterministic trajectories. However, existing forecasting…

Information, ideas, and diseases, or more generally, contagions, spread over space and time through individual transmissions via social networks, as well as through external sources. A detailed picture of any diffusion process can be…

In driving scenarios with poor visibility or occlusions, it is important that the autonomous vehicle would take into account all the uncertainties when making driving decisions, including choice of a safe speed. The grid-based perception…

Although neural networks have seen tremendous success as predictive models in a variety of domains, they can be overly confident in their predictions on out-of-distribution (OOD) data. To be viable for safety-critical applications, like…

In this paper, we aim to forecast a future trajectory distribution of a moving agent in the real world, given the social scene images and historical trajectories. Yet, it is a challenging task because the ground-truth distribution is…