Related papers: Ensemble Kalman Inversion for General Likelihoods

Many parameter estimation problems arising in applications are best cast in the framework of Bayesian inversion. This allows not only for an estimate of the parameters, but also for the quantification of uncertainties in the estimates.…

Inverse problems are ubiquitous because they formalize the integration of data with mathematical models. In many scientific applications the forward model is expensive to evaluate, and adjoint computations are difficult to employ; in this…

The Bayesian Synthetic Likelihood (BSL) method is a widely-used tool for likelihood-free Bayesian inference. This method assumes that some summary statistics are normally distributed, which can be incorrect in many applications. We propose…

We give a generalization of the random matrix ensembles, including all lassical ensembles. Then we derive the joint density function of the generalized ensemble by one simple formula, which give a direct and unified way to compute the…

The purpose of this paper is to provide a discussion, with illustrating examples, on Bayesian forecasting for dynamic generalized linear models (DGLMs). Adopting approximate Bayesian analysis, based on conjugate forms and on Bayes linear…

Using observation data to estimate unknown parameters in computational models is broadly important. This task is often challenging because solutions are non-unique due to the complexity of the model and limited observation data. However,…

This article concerns a class of generalized linear mixed models for clustered data, where the random effects are mapped uniquely onto the grouping structure and are independent between groups. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions…

This paper generalises the exponential family GLM to allow arbitrary distributions for the response variable. This is achieved by combining the model-assisted regression approach from survey sampling with the GLM scoring algorithm, weighted…

Many applications, such as intermittent data assimilation, lead to a recursive application of Bayesian inference within a Monte Carlo context. Popular data assimilation algorithms include sequential Monte Carlo methods and ensemble Kalman…

Ensembles of neural networks (NNs) have long been used to estimate predictive uncertainty; a small number of NNs are trained from different initialisations and sometimes on differing versions of the dataset. The variance of the ensemble's…

The use of ensembles of neural networks (NNs) for the quantification of predictive uncertainty is widespread. However, the current justification is intuitive rather than analytical. This work proposes one minor modification to the normal…

We consider the problem of estimating the means $\mu_i$ of $n$ random variables $Y_i \sim N(\mu_i,1)$, $i=1,\ldots ,n$. Assuming some structure on the $\mu$ process, e.g., a state space model, one may use a summary statistics for the…

The Ensemble Kalman inversion (EKI) method is a method for the estimation of unknown parameters in the context of (Bayesian) inverse problems. The method approximates the underlying measure by an ensemble of particles and iteratively…

While Gaussian probability densities are omnipresent in applied mathematics, Gaussian cumulative probabilities are hard to calculate in any but the univariate case. We study the utility of Expectation Propagation (EP) as an approximate…

Gaussian mixture models are central to classical statistics, widely used in the information sciences, and have a rich mathematical structure. We examine their maximum likelihood estimates through the lens of algebraic statistics. The MLE is…

Bayesian experimental design (BED) for complex physical systems is often limited by the nested inference required to estimate the expected information gain (EIG) or its gradients. Each outer sample induces a different posterior, creating a…

Bayesian field theory denotes a nonparametric Bayesian approach for learning functions from observational data. Based on the principles of Bayesian statistics, a particular Bayesian field theory is defined by combining two models: a…

Nonlinear Bayesian update for a prior ensemble is proposed to extend traditional ensemble Kalman filtering to settings characterized by non-Gaussian priors and nonlinear measurement operators. In this framework, the observed component is…

Practical Bayesian learning often requires (1) online inference, (2) dynamic models, and (3) ensembling over multiple different models. Recent advances have shown how to use random feature approximations to achieve scalable, online…

We derive a novel, provably robust, and closed-form Bayesian update rule for online filtering in state-space models in the presence of outliers and misspecified measurement models. Our method combines generalised Bayesian inference with…