Related papers: A Method for Predicting VaR by Aggregating General…
This paper studies optimization of Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) for Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with finite state and action sets. It introduces the Dynamically augmented CVaR (DCVaR) risk measure and provides an algorithm for its…
In this paper we develop a consistent variable selection procedure for GARCH-X models that identifies the truly relevant exogenous covariates influencing volatility dynamics. The proposed method is based on a multiple hypothesis testing…
Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models have long been considered as one of the most successful families of approaches for volatility modeling in financial return series. In this paper, we propose an…
We take a new look at the problem of disentangling the volatility and jumps processes of daily stock returns. We first provide a computational framework for the univariate stochastic volatility model with Poisson-driven jumps that offers a…
We employ distribution regression (DR) to estimate the joint distribution of two outcome variables conditional on chosen covariates. While Bivariate Distribution Regression (BDR) is useful in a variety of settings, it is particularly…
Accurate prediction with multimodal data-encompassing tabular, textual, and visual inputs or outputs-is fundamental to advancing analytics in diverse application domains. Traditional approaches often struggle to integrate heterogeneous data…
A new Thurstonian rating scale model uses a variable decision rule (VDR) that incorporates three previously formulated, distinct decision rules. The model includes probabilities for choosing each rule, along with Gaussian representation and…
In domains such as finance, healthcare, and robotics, managing worst-case scenarios is critical, as failure to do so can lead to catastrophic outcomes. Distributional Reinforcement Learning (DRL) provides a natural framework to incorporate…
Volatility is a key variable in option pricing, trading and hedging strategies. The purpose of this paper is to improve the accuracy of forecasting implied volatility using an extension of genetic programming (GP) by means of dynamic…
Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are popularly adopted for modelling high-dimensional time series, and their piecewise extensions allow for structural changes in the data. In VAR modelling, the number of parameters grow quadratically with…
This paper proposes dynamic Bayesian regression quantile synthesis (DRQS), a novel method for quantile forecasting within the Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS) framework designed to combine quantile-specific information from multiple…
Identifying causal relations among multi-variate time series is one of the most important elements towards understanding the complex mechanisms underlying the dynamic system. It provides critical tools for forecasting, simulations and…
A new semi-parametric Expected Shortfall (ES) estimation and forecasting framework is proposed. The proposed approach is based on a two-step estimation procedure. The first step involves the estimation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) at different…
We consider a class of semi-parametric dynamic models with strong white noise errors. This class of processes includes the standard Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, the nonfundamental structural VAR, the mixed causal-noncausal models, as…
Volatility forecasts play a central role among equity risk measures. Besides traditional statistical models, modern forecasting techniques based on machine learning can be employed when treating volatility as a univariate, daily…
Learning a predictive model of the mean return, or value function, plays a critical role in many reinforcement learning algorithms. Distributional reinforcement learning (DRL) has been shown to improve performance by modeling the value…
This paper aims to more effectively manage and mitigate stock market risks by accurately characterizing financial market returns and volatility. We enhance the Stochastic Volatility (SV) model by incorporating fat-tailed distributions and…
Predicting the motion of a driver's vehicle is crucial for advanced driving systems, enabling detection of potential risks towards shared control between the driver and automation systems. In this paper, we propose a variational neural…
The joint Value at Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) quantile regression model of Taylor (2017) is extended via incorporating a realized measure, to drive the tail risk dynamics, as a potentially more efficient driver than daily…
We consider the task of learning causal structures from data stored on multiple machines, and propose a novel structure learning method called distributed annealing on regularized likelihood score (DARLS) to solve this problem. We model…