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Gaussian processes are ubiquitous in machine learning, statistics, and applied mathematics. They provide a flexible modelling framework for approximating functions, whilst simultaneously quantifying uncertainty. However, this is only true…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-19 George Wynne , François-Xavier Briol , Mark Girolami

Nonparametric modeling approaches show very promising results in the area of system identification and control. A naturally provided model confidence is highly relevant for system-theoretical considerations to provide guarantees for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-19 Thomas Beckers , Jonas Umlauft , Sandra Hirche

Bayesian nonparametric regression under a rescaled Gaussian process prior offers smoothness-adaptive function estimation with near minimax-optimal error rates. Hierarchical extensions of this approach, equipped with stochastic variable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-15 Sheng Jiang , Surya T. Tokdar

Despite the ubiquity of the Gaussian process regression model, few theoretical results are available that account for the fact that parameters of the covariance kernel typically need to be estimated from the dataset. This article provides…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-12 Toni Karvonen , George Wynne , Filip Tronarp , Chris J. Oates , Simo Särkkä

Gaussian process modeling is a standard tool for building emulators for computer experiments, which are usually used to study deterministic functions, for example, a solution to a given system of partial differential equations. This work…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-10-01 Wenjia Wang

Gaussian process regression is widely used because of its ability to provide well-calibrated uncertainty estimates and handle small or sparse datasets. However, it struggles with high-dimensional data. One possible way to scale this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-02 Bernardo Fichera , Viacheslav Borovitskiy , Andreas Krause , Aude Billard

Gaussian processes are a natural way of defining prior distributions over functions of one or more input variables. In a simple nonparametric regression problem, where such a function gives the mean of a Gaussian distribution for an…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2008-02-03 Radford M. Neal

We propose a simple method that combines neural networks and Gaussian processes. The proposed method can estimate the uncertainty of outputs and flexibly adjust target functions where training data exist, which are advantages of Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-20 Tomoharu Iwata , Zoubin Ghahramani

Gaussian Process Regression is a well-known machine learning technique for which several quantum algorithms have been proposed. We show here that in a wide range of scenarios these algorithms show no exponential speedup. We achieve this by…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-07-04 Dominic Lowe , M. S. Kim , Roberto Bondesan

In Bayesian nonparametric models, Gaussian processes provide a popular prior choice for regression function estimation. Existing literature on the theoretical investigation of the resulting posterior distribution almost exclusively assume a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-06 Debdeep Pati , Anirban Bhattacharya , Guang Cheng

Gaussian processes have become a promising tool for various safety-critical settings, since the posterior variance can be used to directly estimate the model error and quantify risk. However, state-of-the-art techniques for safety-critical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-22 Alexandre Capone , Armin Lederer , Sandra Hirche

Within the past two decades, Gaussian process regression has been increasingly used for modeling dynamical systems due to some beneficial properties such as the bias variance trade-off and the strong connection to Bayesian mathematics. As…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-02-11 Thomas Beckers

Gaussian process is a theoretically appealing model for nonparametric analysis, but its computational cumbersomeness hinders its use in large scale and the existing reduced-rank solutions are usually heuristic. In this work, we propose a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-11-25 Leo L. Duan , Xia Wang , Rhonda D. Szczesniak

Gaussian processes are a powerful framework for quantifying uncertainty and for sequential decision-making but are limited by the requirement of solving linear systems. In general, this has a cubic cost in dataset size and is sensitive to…

In this work, we investigate Gaussian process regression used to recover a function based on noisy observations. We derive upper and lower error bounds for Gaussian process regression with possibly misspecified correlation functions. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-20 Wenjia Wang , Bing-Yi Jing

Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) is widely used in statistics and machine learning for prediction tasks requiring uncertainty measures. Its efficacy depends on the appropriate specification of the mean function, covariance kernel function,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-20 Shifan Zhao , Jiaying Lu , Ji Yang , Edmond Chow , Yuanzhe Xi

It is now known that an extended Gaussian process model equipped with rescaling can adapt to different smoothness levels of a function valued parameter in many nonparametric Bayesian analyses, offering a posterior convergence rate that is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-12-06 Surya T. Tokdar

This paper considers the quantification of the prediction performance in Gaussian process regression. The standard approach is to base the prediction error bars on the theoretical predictive variance, which is a lower bound on the mean…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-03-16 Johan Wågberg , Dave Zachariah , Thomas B. Schön , Petre Stoica

Gaussian process regression is a powerful Bayesian nonlinear regression method. Recent research has enabled the capture of many types of observations using non-Gaussian likelihoods. To deal with various tasks in spatial modeling, we benefit…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-26 Yuta Shikuri

Bayesian optimization is a class of global optimization techniques. In Bayesian optimization, the underlying objective function is modeled as a realization of a Gaussian process. Although the Gaussian process assumption implies a random…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-05-08 Rui Tuo , Wenjia Wang
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