Related papers: Value-at-Risk forecasting model based on normal in…
We develop a Quantile Bayesian Vector Autoregression (QBVAR) to forecast real oil prices across different quantiles of the conditional distribution. The model allows predictor effects to vary across quantiles, capturing asymmetries that…
Existing regression models tend to fall short in both accuracy and uncertainty estimation when the label distribution is imbalanced. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic deep learning model, dubbed variational imbalanced regression…
Designing dynamic portfolio insurance strategies under market conditions switching between two or more regimes is a challenging task in financial economics. Recently, a promising approach employing the value-at-risk (VaR) measure to assign…
This paper introduces a new extension of the Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk (CAViaR) model aimed at improving tail risk forecasting across assets. The proposed component-based model, CAViaR with Spillover Effects (CAViaR-SE),…
High renewable energy penetration into power distribution systems causes a substantial risk of exceeding voltage security limits, which needs to be accurately assessed and properly managed. However, the existing methods usually rely on the…
This article presents a new method for forecasting Value at Risk. Convolutional neural networks can do time series forecasting, since they can learn local patterns in time. A simple modification enables them to forecast not the mean, but…
Value-at-risk (VaR) is an established measure to assess risks in critical real-world applications with random environmental factors. This paper presents a novel VaR upper confidence bound (V-UCB) algorithm for maximizing the VaR of a…
Understanding variable dependence, particularly eliciting their statistical properties given a set of covariates, provides the mathematical foundation in practical operations management such as risk analysis and decision-making given…
The steady-state Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) makes it possible to incorporate prior information about the long-run mean of the process. This has been shown in many studies to substantially improve forecasting performance, and the…
We consider continuous-time stochastic optimal control problems featuring Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) in the objective. The major difficulty in these problems arises from time-inconsistency, which prevents us from directly using…
Real-time coordination of distributed energy resources (DERs) is crucial for regulating the voltage profile in distribution grids. By capitalizing on a scalable neural network (NN) architecture, one can attain decentralized DER decisions to…
In this paper, we generalize the parametric delta-VaR method from portfolios with normally distributed risk factors to portfolios with elliptically distributed ones. We treat both the expected shortfall and the Value-at-Risk of such…
Autonomous cyber and cyber-physical systems need to perform decision-making, learning, and control in unknown environments. Such decision-making can be sensitive to multiple factors, including modeling errors, changes in costs, and impacts…
The Pickands estimator for the extreme value index is beneficial due to its universal consistency, location, and scale invariance, which sets it apart from other types of estimators. However, similar to many extreme value index estimators,…
We develop a non-parametric multivariate time series model that remains agnostic on the precise relationship between a (possibly) large set of macroeconomic time series and their lagged values. The main building block of our model is a…
Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) and value-at-risk (VaR) are popular tail-risk measures in finance and insurance industries as well as in highly reliable, safety-critical uncertain environments where often the underlying probability…
Correlation between microstructure noise and latent financial logarithmic returns is an empirically relevant phenomenon with sound theoretical justification. With few notable exceptions, all integrated variance estimators proposed in the…
Gaussian graphical models are used for determining conditional relationships between variables. This is accomplished by identifying off-diagonal elements in the inverse-covariance matrix that are non-zero. When the ratio of variables (p) to…
We show how to reduce the problem of computing VaR and CVaR with Student T return distributions to evaluation of analytical functions of the moments. This allows an analysis of the risk properties of systems to be carefully attributed…
Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is a family of "coherent risk measures" which generalize the traditional mathematical expectation. Widely used in mathematical finance, it is garnering increasing interest in machine learning, e.g., as an…