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Causal inference from observational data requires untestable identification assumptions. If these assumptions apply, machine learning (ML) methods can be used to study complex forms of causal effect heterogeneity. Recently, several ML…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-20 Richard Post , Isabel van den Heuvel , Marko Petkovic , Edwin van den Heuvel

The propensity score is a common tool for estimating the causal effect of a binary treatment in observational data. In this setting, matching, subclassification, imputation, or inverse probability weighting on the propensity score can…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-03 Michael J Lopez , Roee Gutman

There is growing interest in estimating and analyzing heterogeneous treatment effects in experimental and observational studies. We describe a number of meta-algorithms that can take advantage of any supervised learning or regression method…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-06-18 Sören R. Künzel , Jasjeet S. Sekhon , Peter J. Bickel , Bin Yu

We propose a novel method for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects based on the fused lasso. By first ordering samples based on the propensity or prognostic score, we match units from the treatment and control groups. We then run the…

To test scientific theories and develop individualized treatment rules, researchers often wish to learn heterogeneous treatment effects that can be consistently found across diverse populations and contexts. We consider the problem of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-01 Yi Zhang , Melody Huang , Kosuke Imai

Conditional quantile treatment effect (CQTE) can provide insight into the effect of a treatment beyond the conditional average treatment effect (CATE). This ability to provide information over multiple quantiles of the response makes CQTE…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-17 Josh Givens , Henry W J Reeve , Song Liu , Katarzyna Reluga

The estimation of conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) is an important topic in many scientific fields. CATEs can be estimated with high accuracy if data distributed across multiple parties are centralized. However, it is difficult…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-28 Yuji Kawamata , Ryoki Motai , Yukihiko Okada , Akira Imakura , Tetsuya Sakurai

Analyzing data from multiple sources offers valuable opportunities to improve the estimation efficiency of causal estimands. However, this analysis also poses many challenges due to population heterogeneity and data privacy constraints.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-23 Rong Zhao , Jason Falvey , Xu Shi , Vernon M. Chinchilli , Chixiang Chen

A central goal of modern causal inference is estimating heterogeneous treatment effects to answer questions like "how does an intervention affect each unit," rather than only on average. We study this problem with panel-data where we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-29 Anay Mehrotra , Phuc Tran , Van H. Vu , Manolis Zampetakis

Treatment effect estimates are often available from randomized controlled trials as a single average treatment effect for a certain patient population. Estimates of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) are more useful for…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-12 Wouter A. C. van Amsterdam , Rajesh Ranganath

Finding the features relevant to the difference in treatment effects is essential to unveil the underlying causal mechanisms. Existing methods seek such features by measuring how greatly the feature attributes affect the degree of the {\it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Yoichi Chikahara , Makoto Yamada , Hisashi Kashima

This paper develops a performant Bayesian approach to conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation in regression discontinuity designs (RDD), an increasingly prevalent form of quasi-experiment that facilitates causal inference.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-18 Rafael Alcantara , P. Richard Hahn , Hedibert F. Lopes

Randomization tests and flexible treatment-effect models offer complementary strengths for analyzing data from randomized panel experiments: the former provide valid inference under the known assignment mechanism, while the latter can…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Fangnan Zheng , Yao Zhang

Understanding treatment effect heterogeneity is crucial for reliable decision-making in treatment evaluation and selection. The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is widely used to capture treatment effect heterogeneity induced by…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-14 Peng Wu , Peng Ding , Zhi Geng , Yue Liu

We introduce an algorithm for identifying interpretable subgroups with elevated treatment effects, given an estimate of individual or conditional average treatment effects (CATE). Subgroups are characterized by ``rule sets'' --…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-15 Albert Chiu

When estimating heterogeneous treatment effects, missing outcome data can complicate treatment effect estimation, causing certain subgroups of the population to be poorly represented. In this work, we discuss this commonly overlooked…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-15 Matthew Pryce , Karla Diaz-Ordaz , Ruth H. Keogh , Stijn Vansteelandt

The Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is a global measure of the effectiveness of an experimental treatment intervention. Classical methods of its estimation either ignore relevant covariates or do not fully exploit them. Moreover, past work…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-11-05 Emil Pitkin , Richard Berk , Lawrence Brown , Andreas Buja , Ed George , Kai Zhang , Linda Zhao

We study the problem of learning conditional average treatment effects (CATE) from observational data with unobserved confounders. The CATE function maps baseline covariates to individual causal effect predictions and is key for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-09 Nathan Kallus , Xiaojie Mao , Angela Zhou

Developing tools for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) and individualized treatment effects has been an area of active research in recent years. While these tools have proven to be useful in many contexts, a concern when…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-07 Mahsa Ashouri , Nicholas C. Henderson

Recently, from the personalized medicine perspective, there has been an increased demand to identify subgroups of subjects for whom treatment is effective. Consequently, the estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) has been…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-02 Ryoma Hieda , Shintaro Yuki , Kensuke Tanioka , Hiroshi Yadohisa