English
Related papers

Related papers: Deep Synoptic Monte Carlo Planning in Reconnaissan…

200 papers

Robust Markov decision processes (RMDPs) extend standard Markov decision processes (MDPs) to account for uncertainty in the transition probabilities. RMDPs have an uncertainty set that defines a set of possible transition functions, each of…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2026-04-30 Marnix Suilen , Guillermo A. Pérez

Inference on modern Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) often relies on a variational inference treatment, imposing violated assumptions of independence and the form of the posterior. Traditional MCMC approaches avoid these assumptions at the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-07 Ethan Goan , Dimitri Perrin , Kerrie Mengersen , Clinton Fookes

Bayesian reinforcement learning (BRL) encodes prior knowledge of the world in a model and represents uncertainty in model parameters by maintaining a probability distribution over them. This paper presents Monte Carlo BRL (MC-BRL), a simple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-07-03 Yi Wang , Kok Sung Won , David Hsu , Wee Sun Lee

Deep learning models struggle with uncertainty estimation. Many approaches are either computationally infeasible or underestimate uncertainty. We investigate \textit{BatchEnsemble} as a general and scalable method for uncertainty estimation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Morten Blørstad , Herman Jangsett Mostein , Nello Blaser , Pekka Parviainen

In this paper, a multi-state diagnosis and prognosis (MDP) framework is proposed for tool condition monitoring via a deep belief network based multi-state approach (DBNMS). For fault diagnosis, a cost-sensitive deep belief network (namely…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2018-05-02 Chong Zhang , Geok Soon Hong , Jun-Hong Zhou , Kay Chen Tan , Haizhou Li , Huan Xu , Jihoon Hong , Hian-Leng Chan

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) offer a principled formalism for planning under state and transition uncertainty. Despite advances made towards solving large POMDPs, obtaining performant policies under limited…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-03 Zakariya Laouar , Qi Heng Ho , Zachary Sunberg

The evaluation function for imperfect information games is always hard to define but owns a significant impact on the playing strength of a program. Deep learning has made great achievements these years, and already exceeded the top human…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-06-10 Shiqi Gao , Fuminori Okuya , Yoshihiro Kawahara , Yoshimasa Tsuruoka

We introduce CriticSMC, a new algorithm for planning as inference built from a composition of sequential Monte Carlo with learned Soft-Q function heuristic factors. These heuristic factors, obtained from parametric approximations of the…

This article reviews the application of advanced Monte Carlo techniques in the context of Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). MLMC is a strategy employed to compute expectations which can be biased in some sense, for instance, by using the…

Computation · Statistics 2017-04-25 Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Carina Suciu

We introduce a sampling based machine learning approach, Monte Carlo physics informed neural networks (MC-PINNs), for solving forward and inverse fractional partial differential equations (FPDEs). As a generalization of physics informed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-28 Ling Guo , Hao Wu , Xiaochen Yu , Tao Zhou

In this paper, we address the problem of stochastic motion planning under partial observability, more specifically, how to navigate a mobile robot equipped with continuous range sensors such as LIDAR. In contrast to many existing robotic…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-12-03 Ke Sun , Brent Schlotfeldt , George Pappas , Vijay Kumar

We propose a Monte Carlo sampler from the reverse diffusion process. Unlike the practice of diffusion models, where the intermediary updates -- the score functions -- are learned with a neural network, we transform the score matching…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-14 Xunpeng Huang , Hanze Dong , Yifan Hao , Yi-An Ma , Tong Zhang

We study the problem of synthesizing a controller that maximizes the entropy of a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) subject to a constraint on the expected total reward. Such a controller minimizes the predictability of a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-09-16 Michael Hibbard , Yagiz Savas , Bo Wu , Takashi Tanaka , Ufuk Topcu

In this paper, we approach the problem of uncertainty quantification in deep learning through a predictive framework, which captures uncertainty in model parameters by specifying our assumptions about the predictive distribution of unseen…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-20 Luhuan Wu , Sinead Williamson

A novel class of non-reversible Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes relying on continuous-time piecewise-deterministic Markov Processes has recently emerged. In these algorithms, the state of the Markov process evolves according to a…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-16 Paul Vanetti , Alexandre Bouchard-Côté , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet

This paper introduces a Bayesian inference framework for incomplete structural models, termed distribution-matching posterior inference (DMPI). Extending the minimal econometric interpretation (MEI), DMPI constructs a divergence-based…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-06 Takashi Kano

The focus of this work is sample-efficient deep reinforcement learning (RL) with a simulator. One useful property of simulators is that it is typically easy to reset the environment to a previously observed state. We propose an algorithmic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-04 Dong Yin , Sridhar Thiagarajan , Nevena Lazic , Nived Rajaraman , Botao Hao , Csaba Szepesvari

Drawing a sample from a discrete distribution is one of the building components for Monte Carlo methods. Like other sampling algorithms, discrete sampling suffers from the high computational burden in large-scale inference problems. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-04-29 Yutian Chen , Zoubin Ghahramani

This paper discusses a novel probabilistic approach for the design of robust model predictive control (MPC) laws for discrete-time linear systems affected by parametric uncertainty and additive disturbances. The proposed technique is based…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2013-07-16 Giuseppe C. Calafiore , Lorenzo Fagiano

Mixup~\cite{zhang2017mixup} is a recently proposed method for training deep neural networks where additional samples are generated during training by convexly combining random pairs of images and their associated labels. While simple to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-08 Sunil Thulasidasan , Gopinath Chennupati , Jeff Bilmes , Tanmoy Bhattacharya , Sarah Michalak