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Ensembles of neural networks (NNs) have long been used to estimate predictive uncertainty; a small number of NNs are trained from different initialisations and sometimes on differing versions of the dataset. The variance of the ensemble's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-30 Tim Pearce , Mohamed Zaki , Andy Neely

There is a need of ensuring machine learning models that are interpretable. Higher interpretability of the model means easier comprehension and explanation of future predictions for end-users. Further, interpretable machine learning models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-17 Gregor Stiglic , Primoz Kocbek , Nino Fijacko , Marinka Zitnik , Katrien Verbert , Leona Cilar

Explainable Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods are designed to provide information about how AI-based models make predictions. In healthcare, there is a widespread expectation that these methods will provide relevant and accurate…

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) augment deep networks with uncertainty quantification by Bayesian treatment of the network weights. However, such models face the challenge of Bayesian inference in a high-dimensional and usually…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-30 Zhijie Deng , Yucen Luo , Jun Zhu , Bo Zhang

Explainability and uncertainty quantification are key to trustable artificial intelligence. However, the reasoning behind uncertainty estimates is generally left unexplained. Identifying the drivers of uncertainty complements explanations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-13 Pascal Iversen , Simon Witzke , Katharina Baum , Bernhard Y. Renard

Discovering causal relationships is a hard task, often hindered by the need for intervention, and often requiring large amounts of data to resolve statistical uncertainty. However, humans quickly arrive at useful causal relationships. One…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-12-01 Pedro A. Ortega

Bayesian inference is a powerful tool for combining information in complex settings, a task of increasing importance in modern applications. However, Bayesian inference with a flawed model can produce unreliable conclusions. This review…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-22 David J. Nott , Christopher Drovandi , David T. Frazier

Mechanistic Interpretability aims to understand neural networks through causal explanations. We argue for the Explanatory View Hypothesis: that Mechanistic Interpretability research is a principled approach to understanding models because…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-05 Kola Ayonrinde , Louis Jaburi

Theory refinement is the task of updating a domain theory in the light of new cases, to be done automatically or with some expert assistance. The problem of theory refinement under uncertainty is reviewed here in the context of Bayesian…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-26 Wray L. Buntine

We explore Bayesian reasoning as a means to quantify uncertainty in neural networks for question answering. Starting with a multilayer perceptron on the Iris dataset, we show how posterior inference conveys confidence in predictions. We…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-22 Riccardo Di Sipio

In explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) research, the predominant focus has been on interpreting models for experts and practitioners. Model agnostic and local explanation approaches are deemed interpretable and sufficient in many…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-02-01 Adarsa Sivaprasad , Ehud Reiter , Nava Tintarev , Nir Oren

With Artificial Intelligence (AI) becoming ubiquitous in every application domain, the need for explanations is paramount to enhance transparency and trust among non-technical users. Despite the potential shown by Explainable AI (XAI) for…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-02-05 Aditya Bhattacharya

Comprehensible explanations of probabilistic reasoning are a prerequisite for wider acceptance of Bayesian methods in expert systems and decision support systems. A study of human reasoning under uncertainty suggests two different…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-05 Max Henrion , Marek J. Druzdzel

Understanding the uncertainty of a neural network's (NN) predictions is essential for many purposes. The Bayesian framework provides a principled approach to this, however applying it to NNs is challenging due to large numbers of parameters…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-27 Tim Pearce , Felix Leibfried , Alexandra Brintrup , Mohamed Zaki , Andy Neely

When predictive models are used to support complex and important decisions, the ability to explain a model's reasoning can increase trust, expose hidden biases, and reduce vulnerability to adversarial attacks. However, attempts at…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-11 Dimitris Bertsimas , Arthur Delarue , Patrick Jaillet , Sebastien Martin

Interest in the field of Explainable Artificial Intelligence has been growing for decades and has accelerated recently. As Artificial Intelligence models have become more complex, and often more opaque, with the incorporation of complex…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-03-18 Shruthi Chari , Daniel M. Gruen , Oshani Seneviratne , Deborah L. McGuinness

Artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming increasingly complex, making it difficult for users to understand how the AI has derived its prediction. Using explainable AI (XAI)-methods, researchers aim to explain AI decisions to users. So far,…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2022-10-06 Lara Riefle , Patrick Hemmer , Carina Benz , Michael Vössing , Jannik Pries

Artificial Intelligence models are becoming increasingly more powerful and accurate, supporting or even replacing humans' decision making. But with increased power and accuracy also comes higher complexity, making it hard for users to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-07-10 Vivian S. Silva , André Freitas , Siegfried Handschuh

Bayesian modeling provides a principled approach to quantifying uncertainty in model parameters and model structure and has seen a surge of applications in recent years. Within the context of a Bayesian workflow, we are concerned with model…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-24 Maximilian Scholz , Paul-Christian Bürkner

The use of sophisticated machine learning models for critical decision making is faced with a challenge that these models are often applied as a "black-box". This has led to an increased interest in interpretable machine learning, where…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-07-22 Catarina Moreira , Yu-Liang Chou , Mythreyi Velmurugan , Chun Ouyang , Renuka Sindhgatta , Peter Bruza