Related papers: Most Probable Transitions from Metastable to Oscil…
Many natural systems exhibit tipping points where changing environmental conditions spark a sudden shift to a new and sometimes quite different state. Global climate change is often associated with the stability of marine carbon stocks. We…
Magmatism and volcanism transfer carbon from the solid Earth into the climate system. This transfer may be modulated by the glacial/interglacial cycling of water between oceans and continental ice sheets, which alters the surface loading of…
The emergence of periodic oscillations is observed in various complex systems in nature and engineering. Thermoacoustic oscillations in systems comprising turbulent reactive flow exemplify such complexity in the engineering context, where…
The variations of water density and thermal conductivity of the oceans cold region waters according to their salinity lead to suggest an hypothesis of an oscillating climate between two extreme positions: a maximum of hot temperatures and a…
Cycling of carbon dioxide between the atmosphere and interior of rocky planets can stabilize global climate and enable planetary surface temperatures above freezing over geologic time. However, variations in global carbon budget and…
An intriguing problem in climate science is the existence of Earth's glacial cycles. We show that it is possible to generate these periodic changes in climate by means of the Earth's carbon cycle as the main determinant factor. The carbon…
This work is devoted to the investigation of the most probable transition time between metastable states for stochastic dynamical systems. Such a system is modeled by a stochastic differential equation with non-vanishing Brownian noise, and…
Ocean planets are volatile rich planets, not present in our Solar System, which are thought to be dominated by deep, global oceans. This results in the formation of high-pressure water ice, separating the planetary crust from the liquid…
Distribution-dependent stochastic dynamical systems arise widely in engineering and science. We consider a class of such systems which model the limit behaviors of interacting particles moving in a vector field with random fluctuations. We…
Many complex real world phenomena exhibit abrupt, intermittent or jumping behaviors, which are more suitable to be described by stochastic differential equations under non-Gaussian L\'evy noise. Among these complex phenomena, the most…
There is strong evidence that the present-day Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is in a bi-stable regime and hence it is important to determine probabilities and pathways for noise-induced transitions between its…
Ecosystems often undergo abrupt regime shifts in response to gradual external changes. These shifts are theoretically understood as a regime switch between alternative stable states of the ecosystem dynamical response to smooth changes in…
Detecting recurrent weather patterns and understanding the transitions between such regimes are key to advancing our knowledge on the low-frequency variability of the atmosphere and have important implications in terms of weather and…
In this article a stochastic cellular automata model is examined, which has been developed to study a "small" world, where local changes may noticeably alter global characteristics. This is applied to a climate model, where global…
Singularities in macroscopic systems at discontinuous phase transitions are replaced in finite systems by sharp but continuous changes. Both the energy differences between metastable and stable phases and the energy barriers separating…
A set of idealized experiments are performed to analyze the competing effects of declining atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the opening of an ocean gateway, and varying orbital parameters. These forcing mechanisms, which influence the global…
Catastrophic transitions, where a system shifts abruptly between alternate steady states, are a generic feature of many nonlinear systems. Recently these regime shift were suggested as the mechanism underlies many ecological catastrophes,…
We propose a new mechanism for pattern formation based on the global alternation of two dynamics neither of which exhibits patterns. When driven by either one of the separate dynamics, the system goes to a spatially homogeneous state…
We build a conceptual coupled model of the climate and tidal evolution of the Earth-Moon system to find the influence of the former on the latter. An energy balance model is applied to calculate steady-state temperature field from the mean…
There is growing interest in anticipating critical transitions in natural systems, often pursued through statistical detection of early warning signals associated with dynamical bifurcations. In stochastic dynamical systems, such signals…