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Learning a causal effect from observational data is not straightforward, as this is not possible without further assumptions. If hidden common causes between treatment $X$ and outcome $Y$ cannot be blocked by other measurements, one…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-11-10 Ricardo Silva , Shohei Shimizu

In a nonparametric instrumental regression model, we strengthen the conventional moment independence assumption towards full statistical independence between instrument and error term. This allows us to prove identification results and…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-06-13 Isaac Loh

We develop a general estimation and inference procedure for the common parameters in linear panel data regression models with nonparametric two-way specification of unobserved heterogeneity. The procedure takes as input any first-step…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-08 Hugo Freeman , Dennis Kristensen

This paper examines the identification power of assumptions that formalize the notion of complementarity in the context of a nonparametric bounds analysis of treatment response. I extend the literature on partial identification via shape…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-16 Tate Twinam

Instrumental variable methods provide a powerful approach to estimating causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding. But a key challenge when applying them is the reliance on untestable "exclusion" assumptions that rule out any…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-23 Jason Hartford , Victor Veitch , Dhanya Sridhar , Kevin Leyton-Brown

Bounding causal effects analytically, rather than numerically, is appealing for its interpretability and conceptual clarity. Existing sharp methods rely on optimization-based approaches such as the Balke-Pearl framework, whose computational…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-15 Arefe Boushehrian , Mohammad Reza Badri , Sina Akbari , Negar Kiyavash

The presence of unobserved confounders is one of the main challenges in identifying treatment effects. In this paper, we propose a new approach to causal inference using panel data with large large $N$ and $T$. Our approach imputes the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-03-28 Ben Deaner , Chen-Wei Hsiang , Andrei Zeleneev

Robins 1997 introduced marginal structural models (MSMs), a general class of counterfactual models for the joint effects of time-varying treatment regimes in complex longitudinal studies subject to time-varying confounding. In his work,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-27 Haben Michael , Yifan Cui , Scott Lorch , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

In this paper, we establish sufficient conditions for identifying treatment effects on continuous outcomes in endogenous and multi-valued discrete treatment settings with unobserved heterogeneity. We employ the monotonicity assumption for…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-04-27 Koki Fusejima

We consider the problem of adaptive estimation of the regression function in a framework where we replace ergodicity assumptions (such as independence or mixing) by another structural assumption on the model. Namely, we propose adaptive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-11-03 Sylvain Delattre , Stéphane Gaïffas

Non-randomized treatment effect models are widely used for the assessment of treatment effects in various fields and in particular social science disciplines like political science, psychometry, psychology. More specifically, these are…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-02 Debarghya Mukherjee , Moulinath Banerjee , Ya'acov Ritov

We propose a general approach for inference for a broad class of treatment effect parameters in a setting of a discrete valued treatment and instrument with a general outcome variable. The class of parameters considered are those that can…

We consider estimation and inference of the effects of a policy in the absence of an untreated or control group. We obtain unbiased estimators of individual (heterogeneous) treatment effects and a consistent and asymptotically normal…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-13 Irene Botosaru , Raffaella Giacomini , Martin Weidner

We study the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) in adaptive experiments where treatment can only be encouraged -- rather than directly assigned -- via a binary instrumental variable. Building on semiparametric…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-30 Miruna Oprescu , Brian M Cho , Nathan Kallus

We derive asymptotic properties of penalized estimators for singular models for which identifiability may break and the true parameter values can lie on the boundary of the parameter space. Selection consistency of the estimators is also…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-24 Junichiro Yoshida , Nakahiro Yoshida

We present a novel extension of the influential changes-in-changes (CiC) framework of Athey and Imbens (2006) for estimating the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) and distributional causal effects in panel data with unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-20 Jinghao Sun , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

Consider the problem of estimating average treatment effects when a large number of covariates are used to adjust for possible confounding through outcome regression and propensity score models. The conventional approach of model building…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-31 Zhiqiang Tan

Applied work often studies the effect of a binary variable ("treatment") using linear models with additive effects. I study the interpretation of the OLS estimands in such models when treatment effects are heterogeneous. I show that the…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-05-21 Tymon Słoczyński

Longitudinal data tracking repeated measurements on individuals are highly valued for research because they offer controls for unmeasured individual heterogeneity that might otherwise bias results. Random effects or mixed models approaches,…

Applications · Statistics 2009-09-29 J. R. Lockwood , Daniel F. McCaffrey

Evaluating causal treatment effects in observational studies requires addressing confounding. While the back-door criterion enables identification through adjustment for observed covariates, it fails in the presence of unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-04 Anna Guo , David Benkeser , Razieh Nabi