Related papers: Peak Infection Time for a Networked SIR Epidemic w…
To provide a comprehensive view for dynamics of and on many real-world temporal networks, we investigate the interplay of temporal connectivity patterns and spreading phenomena, in terms of the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model on…
We study the spread of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) infectious diseases where an individual's infectiousness and probability of recovery depend on his/her "age" of infection. We focus first on early outbreak stages when stochastic…
Understanding the dynamics of an epidemic spread is crucial for effective control measures. During the COVID-19 pandemic, quarantines were implemented to minimize infections while mitigating social and economic impacts, raising the question…
An SEIRS epidemic with disease fatalities is introduced in a growing population (modelled as a super-critical linear birth and death process). The study of the initial phase of the epidemic is stochastic, while the analysis of the major…
This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…
The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model is studied in multilayer networks with arbitrary number of links across the layers. By following the mapping to bond percolation we give the analytical expression for the epidemic threshold and…
We consider in this paper a general SEIRS model describing the dynamics of an infectious disease including latency, waning immunity and infection-induced mortality. We derive an infinite system of differential equations that provides an…
In this paper, we study the $SIS$ (susceptible-infected-susceptible) and $SIR$ (susceptible-infected-removed) epidemic models on undirected, weighted networks by deriving pairwise-type approximate models coupled with individual-based…
We propose an integral model describing an epidemic of an infectious disease. The model is behavioural in the sense that the constitutive law for the force of infection includes a distributed delay, called "information index", that…
Multidimensional continuous-time Markov jump processes $(Z(t))$ on $\mathbb{Z}^p$ form a usual set-up for modeling $SIR$-like epidemics. However, when facing incomplete epidemic data, inference based on $(Z(t))$ is not easy to be achieved.…
Contact patterns in populations fundamentally influence the spread of infectious diseases. Current mathematical methods for epidemiological forecasting on networks largely assume that contacts between individuals are fixed, at least for the…
Contagious processes, such as spread of infectious diseases, social behaviors, or computer viruses, affect biological, social, and technological systems. Epidemic models for large populations and finite populations on networks have been…
Current modeling of infectious diseases allows for the study of complex and realistic scenarios that go from the population to the individual level of description. However, most epidemic models assume that the spreading process takes place…
In this research, we develop a framework to analyze the interaction between the economy and the Covid-19 pandemic using an extension of SIR epidemic model. At the outset, we assume there are two health related investments including general…
This article describes a simple Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) model fitting with COVID-19 data for the month of march 2020 in New York (NY) state. The model is a classical SIR, but is non-autonomous; the rate of susceptible people…
We study the effect of external infection sources on phase transitions in epidemic processes. In particular, we consider an epidemic spreading on a network via the SIS/SIR dynamics, which in addition is aided by external agents - sources…
The ability to actually implement epidemic models is a crucial stake for public institutions, as they may be overtaken by the increasing complexity of current models and sometimes tend to revert to less elaborate models such as the SIR. In…
Intent of this research is to explore how mathematical models, specifically Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model, can be utilized to forecast peak outbreak timeline of COVID-19 epidemic amongst a population of interest starting from the…
We study two simple mathematical models of the epidemic. At first, we study the repetitive infection spreading in a simplified SIRS model including the effect of the decay of the acquired immune. The model is an intermediate model of the…
In this study, we propose a time-dependent Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model for the analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic outbreak in three different countries, the United States of America, Italy and Iceland using public…