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Related papers: Sample-Efficient Safety Assurances using Conformal…

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Conformal Prediction offers a powerful framework for quantifying uncertainty in machine learning models, enabling the construction of prediction sets with finite-sample validity guarantees. While easily adaptable to non-probabilistic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-27 Eshant English , Christoph Lippert

If you are predicting the label $y$ of a new object with $\hat y$, how confident are you that $y = \hat y$? Conformal prediction methods provide an elegant framework for answering such question by building a $100 (1 - \alpha)\%$ confidence…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-11 Eugene Ndiaye , Ichiro Takeuchi

Conformal prediction can yield statistically valid prediction intervals for any regression model, with no model modifications and small computational costs. To assess its practical value, we apply conformal methods to quantify uncertainty…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-31 Miriam Simm , Corinna Hoose , Tom Beucler

Conformal prediction (CP) is a general framework to quantify the predictive uncertainty of machine learning models that uses a set prediction to include the true label with a valid probability. To align the uncertainty measured by CP,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-25 Xuesong Jia , Yuanjie Shi , Ziquan Liu , Yi Xu , Yan Yan

Large language models often lose previously aligned safety behaviors when fine-tuned on benign data, a phenomenon known as catastrophic forgetting. Prior work shows that adding random safety examples can mitigate this effect, but it remains…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Anh Pham , Mihir Thalanki , Michael Sun , Aditya Chaloo , Ankita Gupta , Tian Xia , Aditya Mate , Ehimwenma Nosakhare , Soundararajan Srinivasan

In this work, we study some novel applications of conformal inference techniques to the problem of providing machine learning procedures with more transparent, accurate, and practical performance guarantees. We provide a natural extension…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-10 Matthew J. Holland

The black box nature of deep learning models complicate their usage in critical applications such as remote sensing. Conformal prediction is a method to ensure trust in such scenarios. Subject to data exchangeability, conformal prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-07 Protim Bhattacharjee , Peter Jung

Providing guarantees on the safe operation of robots against edge cases is challenging as testing methods such as traditional Monte-Carlo require too many samples to provide reasonable statistics. Built upon recent advancements in…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-05-01 Guy Scher , Sadra Sadraddini , Ariel Yadin , Hadas Kress-Gazit

This paper presents a comprehensive empirical analysis of conformal prediction methods on a challenging aerial image dataset featuring diverse events in unconstrained environments. Conformal prediction is a powerful post-hoc technique that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-25 Farhad Pourkamali-Anaraki

Current safety alignment methods encode safe behavior implicitly within model parameters, creating a fundamental opacity: we cannot easily inspect why a model refuses a request, nor intervene when its safety judgments fail. We propose Safe…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Jingyuan Feng , Andrew Gambardella , Gouki Minegishi , Takeshi Kojima , Yusuke Iwasawa , Yutaka Matsuo

During training, reinforcement learning systems interact with the world without considering the safety of their actions. When deployed into the real world, such systems can be dangerous and cause harm to their surroundings. Often, dangerous…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-12-29 Ekaterina Nikonova , Cheng Xue , Jochen Renz

Object recognition is a crucial step in perception systems for autonomous and intelligent vehicles, as evidenced by the numerous research works in the topic. In this paper, object recognition is explored by using multisensory and…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Gledson Melotti , Johann J. S. Bastos , Bruno L. S. da Silva , Tiago Zanotelli , Cristiano Premebida

A reliable representation of uncertainty is essential for the application of modern machine learning methods in safety-critical settings. In this regard, the use of credal sets (i.e., convex sets of probability distributions) has recently…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Paul Hofman , Timo Löhr , Maximilian Muschalik , Yusuf Sale , Eyke Hüllermeier

This paper develops a conformal method to compute prediction intervals for non-parametric regression that can automatically adapt to skewed data. Leveraging black-box machine learning algorithms to estimate the conditional distribution of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-26 Matteo Sesia , Yaniv Romano

Before autonomous systems can be deployed in safety-critical applications, we must be able to understand and verify the safety of these systems. For cases where the risk or cost of real-world testing is prohibitive, we propose a…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-09-18 Charles Dawson , Chuchu Fan

This paper focuses on the problem of detecting and reacting to changes in the distribution of a sensorimotor controller's observables. The key idea is the design of switching policies that can take conformal quantiles as input, which we…

End-to-end learning has emerged as a major paradigm for developing autonomous systems. Unfortunately, with its performance and convenience comes an even greater challenge of safety assurance. A key factor of this challenge is the absence of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-21 Zhenjiang Mao , Carson Sobolewski , Ivan Ruchkin

Autonomous vehicles require reliable hazard detection. However, primary sensor systems may miss near-field obstacles, resulting in safety risks. Although a dedicated fast-reacting near-field monitoring system can mitigate this, it typically…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-07-22 Junnan Pan , Prodromos Sotiriadis , Vladislav Nenchev , Ferdinand Englberger

In statistics, forecast uncertainty is often quantified using a specified statistical model, though such approaches may be vulnerable to model misspecification, selection bias, and limited finite-sample validity. While bootstrapping can…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-12 Han Lin Shang

In this paper, we propose a Q-learning based decision-making framework to improve the safety and efficiency of Autonomous Vehicles when they encounter other maliciously behaving vehicles while passing through unsignalized intersections. In…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-09-27 Qing Li , Jinxing Hua , Qiuxia Sun