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Calibrating deep neural models plays an important role in building reliable, robust AI systems in safety-critical applications. Recent work has shown that modern neural networks that possess high predictive capability are poorly calibrated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-16 Cheng Wang

Driver observation models are rarely deployed under perfect conditions. In practice, illumination, camera placement and type differ from the ones present during training and unforeseen behaviours may occur at any time. While observing the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-04-12 Alina Roitberg , Kunyu Peng , David Schneider , Kailun Yang , Marios Koulakis , Manuel Martinez , Rainer Stiefelhagen

Handling uncertainty is critical for ensuring reliable decision-making in intelligent systems. Modern neural networks are known to be poorly calibrated, resulting in predicted confidence scores that are difficult to use. This article…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-18 Gabriele Sanguin , Arjun Pakrashi , Marco Viola , Francesco Rinaldi

In this paper, we study the problem of uncertainty estimation and calibration for LLMs. We begin by formulating the uncertainty estimation problem, a relevant yet underexplored area in existing literature. We then propose a supervised…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-24 Linyu Liu , Yu Pan , Xiaocheng Li , Guanting Chen

Confidence calibration is a major concern when applying artificial neural networks in safety-critical applications. Since most research in this area has focused on classification in the past, confidence calibration in the scope of object…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-01-11 Franziska Schwaiger , Maximilian Henne , Fabian Küppers , Felippe Schmoeller Roza , Karsten Roscher , Anselm Haselhoff

Confidence calibration is central to providing accurate and interpretable uncertainty estimates, especially under safety-critical scenarios. However, we find that existing calibration algorithms often overlook the issue of *proximity bias*,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Miao Xiong , Ailin Deng , Pang Wei Koh , Jiaying Wu , Shen Li , Jianqing Xu , Bryan Hooi

Calibrated confidence estimates obtained from neural networks are crucial, particularly for safety-critical applications such as autonomous driving or medical image diagnosis. However, although the task of confidence calibration has been…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Fabian Küppers , Anselm Haselhoff , Jan Kronenberger , Jonas Schneider

Many applications of classification methods not only require high accuracy but also reliable estimation of predictive uncertainty. However, while many current classification frameworks, in particular deep neural networks, achieve high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-28 Jonathan Wenger , Hedvig Kjellström , Rudolph Triebel

Perception algorithms that provide estimates of their uncertainty are crucial to the development of autonomous robots that can operate in challenging and uncontrolled environments. Such perception algorithms provide the means for having…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-06-30 Sadegh Rabiee , Joydeep Biswas

With rapid adoption of deep learning in critical applications, the question of when and how much to trust these models often arises, which drives the need to quantify the inherent uncertainties. While identifying all sources that account…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-22 Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan , Bindya Venkatesh , Prasanna Sattigeri , Peer-Timo Bremer

Albeit revealing impressive predictive performance for several computer vision tasks, deep neural networks (DNNs) are prone to making overconfident predictions. This limits the adoption and wider utilization of DNNs in many safety-critical…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-11-08 Muhammad Akhtar Munir , Salman Khan , Muhammad Haris Khan , Mohsen Ali , Fahad Shahbaz Khan

Accurate sensor calibration is crucial for autonomous systems, yet its uncertainty quantification remains underexplored. We present the first approach to integrate uncertainty awareness into online extrinsic calibration, combining Monte…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-04-28 Mathieu Cocheteux , Julien Moreau , Franck Davoine

Autonomous robots that rely on deep neural network controllers pose critical challenges for safety prediction, especially under partial observability and distribution shift. Traditional model-based verification techniques are limited in…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-03-16 Zhenjiang Mao , Mrinall Eashaan Umasudhan , Ivan Ruchkin

Reliable confidence estimation for the predictions is important in many safety-critical applications. However, modern deep neural networks are often overconfident for their incorrect predictions. Recently, many calibration methods have been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-07 Fei Zhu , Zhen Cheng , Xu-Yao Zhang , Cheng-Lin Liu

Deep neural networks, despite their high accuracy, often exhibit poor confidence calibration, limiting their reliability in high-stakes applications. Current ad-hoc confidence calibration methods attempt to fix this during training but face…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-15 Sandra Gómez-Gálvez , Tobias Olenyi , Gillian Dobbie , Katerina Taškova

Neural networks have proven successful at learning from complex data distributions by acting as universal function approximators. However, they are often overconfident in their predictions, which leads to inaccurate and miscalibrated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-23 Jeffrey Willette , Juho Lee , Sung Ju Hwang

Estimates of predictive uncertainty are important for accurate model-based planning and reinforcement learning. However, predictive uncertainties---especially ones derived from modern deep learning systems---can be inaccurate and impose a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-21 Ali Malik , Volodymyr Kuleshov , Jiaming Song , Danny Nemer , Harlan Seymour , Stefano Ermon

Deep neural networks are powerful tools to detect hidden patterns in data and leverage them to make predictions, but they are not designed to understand uncertainty and estimate reliable probabilities. In particular, they tend to be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-10 Bat-Sheva Einbinder , Yaniv Romano , Matteo Sesia , Yanfei Zhou

The goal of extrinsic calibration is the alignment of sensor data to ensure an accurate representation of the surroundings and enable sensor fusion applications. From a safety perspective, sensor calibration is a key enabler of autonomous…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Ilir Tahiraj , Jeremialie Swadiryus , Felix Fent , Markus Lienkamp

Deep neural networks have been increasingly used in safety-critical applications such as medical diagnosis and autonomous driving. However, many studies suggest that they are prone to being poorly calibrated and have a propensity for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-02 Chengli Tan , Yubo Zhou , Haishan Ye , Guang Dai , Junmin Liu , Zengjie Song , Jiangshe Zhang , Zixiang Zhao , Yunda Hao , Yong Xu