Related papers: Computing the Death Rate of COVID-19

COVID-19 disease has affected almost every country in the world. The large number of infected people and the different mortality rates between countries has given rise to many hypotheses about the key points that make the virus so lethal in…

We analyzed 5,484 close contacts of COVID-19 cases from Italy, all of them tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection. We found an infection fatality ratio of 2.2% (95%CI 1.69-2.81%) and identified male sex, age >70 years, cardiovascular…

I propose novel partial identification bounds on infection prevalence from information on test rate and test yield. The approach utilizes user-specified bounds on (i) test accuracy and (ii) the extent to which tests are targeted, formalized…

Large scale virological testing of SARS-Cov2 is implemented since May 2020 in France. We assume that the positivity of asymptomatic people not being contact cases (ANBC) is representative of the positivity of the whole French population,…

By September, 2022, more than 600 million cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection have been reported globally, resulting in over 6.5 million deaths. COVID-19 mortality risk estimators are often, however, developed with small unrepresentative samples…

It is evident that increasing the intensive-care-unit (ICU) capacity and giving priority to admitting and treating younger patients will reduce the number of COVID-19 deaths, but a quantitative assessment of these measures has remained…

This paper introduces new methods to study the changing dynamics of COVID-19 cases and deaths among the 50 worst-affected countries throughout 2020. First, we analyse the trajectories and turning points of rolling mortality rates to…

The COVID-19 outbreak is asynchronous in US counties. Mitigating the COVID-19 transmission requires not only the state and federal level order of protective measures such as social distancing and testing, but also public awareness of…

During the COVID-19 outbreak, it is essential to monitor the effectiveness of measures taken by governments on the course of the epidemic. Here we show that there is already a sufficient amount of data collected in Italy to predict the…

Accurate forecasts for COVID-19 are necessary for better preparedness and resource management. Specifically, deciding the response over months or several months requires accurate long-term forecasts which is particularly challenging as the…

Leading up to August 2020, COVID-19 has spread to almost every country in the world, causing millions of infected and hundreds of thousands of deaths. In this paper, we first verify the assumption that clinical variables could have…

A major difficulty to estimate $R$ (the effective reproducing number) of COVID-19 is that most cases of COVID-19 infection are mild or asymptomatic, therefore true number of infection is difficult to determine. This paper estimates the…

Forecasting new cases, hospitalizations, and disease-induced deaths is an important part of infectious disease surveillance and helps guide health officials in implementing effective countermeasures. For disease surveillance in the U.S.,…

Recent outbreak of COVID-19 has led a rapid global spread around the world. Many countries have implemented timely intensive suppression to minimize the infections, but resulted in high case fatality rate (CFR) due to critical demand of…

The SIR evolutionary model predicts too sharp a decrease of the fractions of people infected with COVID-19 in France after the start of the national lockdown, compared to what is observed. I fit the daily hospital data: arrivals in regular…

We analysed publicly available data on place of occurrence of COVID-19 deaths from national statistical agencies in the UK between March 9 2020 and February 28 2021. We introduce a modified Weibull model that describes the deaths due to…

We studied the weekly number and the growth decline rates of COVID-19 deaths of the period from October 31, 2022 to February 9, 2023, in Italy, finding that that COVID 19 winter wave reached its peak during the three holiday weeks from…

As a reaction to the high infectiousness and lethality of the COVID-19 virus, countries around the world have adopted drastic policy measures to contain the pandemic. However, it remains unclear which effect these measures, so-called…

When the Covid-19 pandemic enters dangerous new phase, whether and when to take aggressive public health interventions to slow down the spread of COVID-19. To develop the artificial intelligence (AI) inspired methods for real-time…

This study develops a framework for quantification of the impact of changes in population mobility due to social distancing on the COVID-19 infection growth rate. Using the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemiological model we…