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Related papers: Fine-grained Solar Flare Forecasting Based on the …

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In this paper, we consider incorporating data associated with the sun's north and south polar field strengths to improve solar flare prediction performance using machine learning models. When used to supplement local data from active…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2022-12-06 Mehmet Aktukmak , Zeyu Sun , Monica Bobra , Tamas Gombosi , Ward B. Manchester , Yang Chen , Alfred Hero

This study progresses solar flare prediction research by presenting a full-disk deep-learning model to forecast $\geq$M-class solar flares and evaluating its efficacy on both central (within $\pm$70$^\circ$) and near-limb (beyond…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2023-08-31 Chetraj Pandey , Anli Ji , Trisha Nandakumar , Rafal A. Angryk , Berkay Aydin

Machine learning models have been employed to perform either physics-free data-driven or hybrid dynamical downscaling of climate data. Most of these implementations operate over relatively small downscaling factors because of the challenge…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-02-24 Daniel Getter , Julie Bessac , Johann Rudi , Yan Feng

Magnetic flux generated within the solar interior emerges to the surface, forming active regions (ARs) and sunspots. Flux emergence may trigger explosive events, such as flares and coronal mass ejections and therefore understanding…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-11-04 Dattaraj B. Dhuri , Shravan M. Hanasoge , Aaron C. Birch , Hannah Schunker

A crucial challenge to successful flare prediction is forecasting periods that transition between "flare-quiet" and "flare-active". Building on earlier studies in this series (Barnes et al. 2016; Leka et al. 2019a,b) in which we describe…

Solar flare prediction is a central problem in space weather forecasting and has captivated the attention of a wide spectrum of researchers due to recent advances in both remote sensing as well as machine learning and deep learning…

Space Physics · Physics 2022-09-19 Chetraj Pandey , Anli Ji , Rafal A. Angryk , Manolis K. Georgoulis , Berkay Aydin

The forecast method introduced by Kors\'os et al.(2014) is generalised from the horizontal magnetic gradient (GM), defined between two opposite polarity spots, to all spots within an appropriately defined region close to the magnetic…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2016-10-21 Marianna Korsos , Andras Ludmany , Robert Erdelyi , Tunde Baranyi

Over the past few decades, many applications of physics-based simulations and data-driven techniques (including machine learning and deep learning) have emerged to analyze and predict solar flares. These approaches are pivotal in…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2024-02-07 Anli Ji , Berkay Aydin

Predicting the short-term power output of a photovoltaic panel is an important task for the efficient management of smart grids. Short-term forecasting at the minute scale, also known as nowcasting, can benefit from sky images captured by…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-10-16 Jinsong Zhang , Rodrigo Verschae , Shohei Nobuhara , Jean-François Lalonde

Solar flare forecasting mainly relies on photospheric magnetograms and associated physical features to predict forthcoming flares. However, it is believed that flare initiation mechanisms often originate in the chromosphere and the lower…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2024-10-22 Grégoire Francisco , Sabrina Guastavino , Teresa Barata , João Fernandes , Dario Del Moro

Solar flares, especially C, M, and X class, pose significant risks to satellite operations, communication systems, and power grids. We present a novel approach for predicting extreme solar flares using HMI intensitygrams and magnetograms.…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2026-01-09 Juyoung Yun , Jungmin Shin

Machine learning models for forecasting solar flares have been trained and evaluated using a variety of data sources, including Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) operational and science-quality data. Typically, data from these sources…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2026-02-02 Ke Hu , Kevin Jin , Victor Verma , Weihao Liu , Ward Manchester , Lulu Zhao , Tamas Gombosi , Yang Chen

Human living environment is influenced by intense solar activity. The solar activity exhibits periodicity and regularity. Although many deep-learning models are currently used for solar cycle prediction, most of them are based on a…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2025-03-04 Cui Zhao , Kun Liu , Shangbin Yang , Jinchao Xia , Jingxia Chen , Jie Ren , Shiyuan Liu , Fangyuan He

Solar flares not only pose risks to outer space technologies and astronauts' well being, but also cause disruptions on earth to our hight-tech, interconnected infrastructure our lives highly depend on. While a number of machine-learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-16 Junzhi Wen , Md Reazul Islam , Azim Ahmadzadeh , Rafal A. Angryk

One of the limiting factors in training data-driven, rare-event prediction algorithms is the scarcity of the events of interest resulting in an extreme imbalance in the data. There have been many methods introduced in the literature for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-18 Yang Chen , Dustin J. Kempton , Azim Ahmadzadeh , Rafal A. Angryk

The increasing global demand for clean and environmentally friendly energy resources has caused increased interest in harnessing solar power through photovoltaic (PV) systems for smart grids and homes. However, the inherent unpredictability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Saman Soleymani , Shima Mohammadzadeh

Wind power forecasting helps with the planning for the power systems by contributing to having a higher level of certainty in decision-making. Due to the randomness inherent to meteorological events (e.g., wind speeds), making highly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-04 Syed Kazmi , Berk Gorgulu , Mucahit Cevik , Mustafa Gokce Baydogan

Wind power forecasting plays a critical role in modern energy systems, facilitating the integration of renewable energy sources into the power grid. Accurate prediction of wind energy output is essential for managing the inherent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-18 Ali Forootani , Danial Esmaeili Aliabadi , Daniela Thraen

Despite the advances in the field of solar energy, improvements of solar forecasting techniques, addressing the intermittent electricity production, remain essential for securing its future integration into a wider energy supply. A…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-05-25 Quentin Paletta , Joan Lasenby

Accurate, reliable solar flare prediction is crucial for mitigating potential disruptions to critical infrastructure, while predicting solar flares remains a significant challenge. Existing methods based on heuristic physical features often…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Shunya Nagashima , Komei Sugiura