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Statisticians show growing interest in estimating and analyzing heterogeneity in causal effects in observational studies. However, there usually exists a trade-off between accuracy and interpretability for developing a desirable estimator…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-26 Steven Siwei Ye , Yanzhen Chen , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

Common causal estimands include the average treatment effect (ATE), the average treatment effect of the treated (ATT), and the average treatment effect on the controls (ATC). Using augmented inverse probability weighting methods, parametric…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-23 Roland A. Matsouaka , Yi Liu , Yunji Zhou

For treatment effects - one of the core issues in modern econometric analysis - prediction and estimation are two sides of the same coin. As it turns out, machine learning methods are the tool for generalized prediction models. Combined…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-04-27 Daniel Jacob

Treatment effect heterogeneity plays an important role in many areas of causal inference and within recent years, estimation of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) has received much attention in the statistical community. While…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-17 Simon Christoffer Ziersen , Torben Martinussen

Estimation and inference of treatment effects under unconfounded treatment assignments often suffer from bias and the `curse of dimensionality' due to the nonparametric estimation of nuisance parameters for high-dimensional confounders.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-08 Zeqi Wu , Meilin Wang , Wei Huang , Zheng Zhang

While randomized trials may be the gold standard for evaluating the effectiveness of the treatment intervention, in some special circumstances, single-arm clinical trials utilizing external control may be considered. The causal treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-26 Huan Wang , Fei Wu , Yeh-Fong Chen

In randomized experiments, regression adjustment can improve the precision of average treatment effect (ATE) estimation using covariates without requiring a correctly specified outcome model. Although well studied in low-dimensional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-28 Dogyoon Song

Heterogeneous treatment effects, which vary according to individual covariates, are crucial in fields such as personalized medicine and tailored treatment strategies. In many applications, rather than considering the heterogeneity induced…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-26 Peng Wu , Pengtao Zeng , Zhaoqing Tian , Shaojie Wei

Randomization tests and flexible treatment-effect models offer complementary strengths for analyzing data from randomized panel experiments: the former provide valid inference under the known assignment mechanism, while the latter can…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Fangnan Zheng , Yao Zhang

The average treatment effect can obscure important heterogeneity when individuals respond differently to a treatment. While the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) function captures such heterogeneity, it is difficult to communicate…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-18 Anders Munch , Thomas A. Gerds

When studying an outcome $Y$ that is weakly-positive but can equal zero (e.g. earnings), researchers frequently estimate an average treatment effect (ATE) for a "log-like" transformation that behaves like $\log(Y)$ for large $Y$ but is…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-11-17 Jiafeng Chen , Jonathan Roth

The most widely discussed methods for estimating the Average Causal Effect/Average Treatment Effect are those for intervention in discrete binary variables whose value represents intervention/non-intervention groups. On the other hand,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-21 Yoshiaki Kitazawa

Estimators that weight observed outcomes to form effect estimates have a long tradition. Their outcome weights are widely used in established procedures, such as checking covariate balance, characterizing target populations, or detecting…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-13 Michael C. Knaus

Applied work often studies the effect of a binary variable ("treatment") using linear models with additive effects. I study the interpretation of the OLS estimands in such models when treatment effects are heterogeneous. I show that the…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-05-21 Tymon Słoczyński

Inferring causal relationships between event pairs in a temporal sequence is applicable in many domains such as healthcare, manufacturing, and transportation. Most existing work on causal inference primarily focuses on event types within…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-16 Kazi Tasnim Zinat , Yun Zhou , Xiang Lyu , Yawei Wang , Zhicheng Liu , Panpan Xu

Causal inference problems often involve continuous treatments, such as dose, duration, or frequency. However, identifying and estimating standard dose-response estimands requires that everyone has some chance of receiving any level of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-28 Kyle Schindl , Shuying Shen , Edward H. Kennedy

Reliable causal effect estimation from observational data requires adjustment for confounding and sufficient overlap in covariate distributions between treatment groups. However, in high-dimensional settings, lack of overlap often inflates…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-21 Linying Yang , Robin J. Evans

This note introduces a unified theory for causal inference that integrates Riesz regression, covariate balancing, density-ratio estimation (DRE), targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE), and the matching estimator in average treatment…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-31 Masahiro Kato

Observational studies have recently received significant attention from the machine learning community due to the increasingly available non-experimental observational data and the limitations of the experimental studies, such as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-26 Vinod Kumar Chauhan , Soheila Molaei , Marzia Hoque Tania , Anshul Thakur , Tingting Zhu , David A. Clifton

In the analysis of observational studies, inverse probability weighting (IPW) is commonly used to consistently estimate the average treatment effect (ATE) or the average treatment effect in the treated (ATT). The variance of the IPW ATE…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-25 Sarah A. Reifeis , Michael G. Hudgens