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Data assimilation (DA) methods use priors arising from differential equations to robustly interpolate and extrapolate data. Popular techniques such as ensemble methods that handle high-dimensional, nonlinear PDE priors focus mostly on state…
Data assimilation (DA) integrates observations with model forecasts to produce optimized atmospheric states, whose physical consistency is critical for stable weather forecasting and reliable climate research. Traditional Bayesian DA…
Continuous data assimilation (CDA) is successfully implemented for the first time for efficient dynamical downscaling of a global atmospheric reanalysis. A comparison of the performance of CDA with the standard grid and spectral nudging…
The recent surge in machine learning (ML) methods for geophysical modeling has raised the question of how these methods might be applied to data assimilation (DA). We focus on diffusion modeling (a form of generative artificial…
Data assimilation (DA) methods combine model predictions with observational data to improve state estimation in dynamical systems, inspiring their increasingly prominent role in geophysical and climate applications. Classical DA methods…
We identify a strong equivalence between neural network based machine learning (ML) methods and the formulation of statistical data assimilation (DA), known to be a problem in statistical physics. DA, as used widely in physical and…
Obtaining accurate high-resolution representations of model outputs is essential to describe the system dynamics. In general, however, only spatially- and temporally-coarse observations of the system states are available. These observations…
Data assimilation (DA) is a cornerstone of scientific and engineering applications, combining model forecasts with sparse and noisy observations to estimate latent system states. Classical high-dimensional DA methods, such as the ensemble…
``Online" data assimilation (DA) is used to generate a new seasonal-resolution reanalysis dataset over the last millennium by combining forecasts from an ocean--atmosphere--sea-ice coupled linear inverse model with climate proxy records.…
Data assimilation (DA) improves prediction of chaotic systems by combining model forecasts with sparse, noisy observations. Many DA methods are inherently probabilistic, but accurate probabilistic DA is often computationally expensive…
There has been a recent surge in development of accurate machine learning (ML) weather prediction models, but evaluation of these models has mainly been focused on medium-range forecasts, not their performance in cycling data assimilation…
In recent years, machine learning (ML) has been proposed to devise data-driven parametrisations of unresolved processes in dynamical numerical models. In most cases, the ML training leverages high-resolution simulations to provide a dense,…
Data assimilation (DA), as an indispensable component within contemporary Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems, plays a crucial role in generating the analysis that significantly impacts forecast performance. Nevertheless, the…
Errors in the representation of clouds in convection-permitting numerical weather prediction models can be introduced by different sources. These can be the forcing and boundary conditions, the representation of orography, the accuracy of…
Deep neural networks have emerged as very successful tools for image restoration and reconstruction tasks. These networks are often trained end-to-end to directly reconstruct an image from a noisy or corrupted measurement of that image. To…
Data assimilation addresses the problem of identifying plausible state trajectories of dynamical systems given noisy or incomplete observations. In geosciences, it presents challenges due to the high-dimensionality of geophysical dynamical…
Increasing the resolution of a model can improve the performance of a data assimilation system: first because model field are in better agreement with high resolution observations, then the corrections are better sustained and, with…
Data assimilation (DA) addresses the problem of sequentially estimating the state of a dynamical system from noisy and incomplete observations. In this work, we employ a diffusion model as a world model to simulate and predict the system's…
Data assimilation (DA) is a fundamental component of modern weather prediction, yet it remains a major computational bottleneck in machine learning (ML)-based forecasting pipelines due to reliance on traditional variational methods. Recent…
Modern data-driven surrogate models for weather forecasting provide accurate short-term predictions but inaccurate and nonphysical long-term forecasts. This paper investigates online weather prediction using machine learning surrogates…