Related papers: How contact patterns destabilize and modulate epid…
Networks of person-person contacts form the substrate along which infectious diseases spread. Most network-based studies of the spread focus on the impact of variations in degree (the number of contacts an individual has). However, other…
Epidemiological dynamics are affected by the spatial and demographic structure of the host population. Households and neighbourhoods are known to be important groupings but little is known about the epidemiological interplay between them.…
We study the effects of switching social contacts as a strategy to control epidemic outbreaks. Connections between susceptible and infective individuals can be broken by either individual, and then reconnected to a randomly chosen member of…
Outbreaks are complex multi-scale processes that are impacted not only by cellular dynamics and the ability of pathogens to effectively reproduce and spread, but also by population-level dynamics and the effectiveness of mitigation…
The symptoms of many infectious diseases influence their host to withdraw from social activity limiting their own potential to spread. Successful transmission therefore requires the onset of infectiousness to coincide with a time when its…
Many pathogens spread primarily via direct contact between infected and susceptible hosts. Thus, the patterns of contacts or contact network of a population fundamentally shapes the course of epidemics. While there is a robust and growing…
The spread of disease through a physical-contact network and the spread of information about the disease on a communication network are two intimately related dynamical processes. We investigate the asymmetrical interplay between the two…
The ability to directly record human face-to-face interactions increasingly enables the development of detailed data-driven models for the spread of directly transmitted infectious diseases at the scale of individuals. Complete coverage of…
We study how the interplay between the memory immune response and pathogen mutation affects epidemic dynamics in two related models. The first explicitly models pathogen mutation and individual memory immune responses, with contacted…
The mathematical model of the spread of the epidemic is developed, which considers fluctuations in the number of human social contacts. The model is based on the logistic equation. The oscillation in the number of social contacts within one…
We investigate disease spreading on eight empirical data sets of human contacts (mostly proximity networks recording who is close to whom, at what time). We compare three levels of representations of these data sets: temporal networks,…
Many progresses in the understanding of epidemic spreading models have been obtained thanks to numerous modeling efforts and analytical and numerical studies, considering host populations with very different structures and properties,…
Epidemics are emergent phenomena depending on the epidemiological characteristics of pathogens and the interaction and movement of people. Public transit systems have provided much important information about the movement of people, but…
The basic reproduction number R0 -- the number of individuals directly infected by an infectious person in an otherwise susceptible population -- is arguably the most widely used estimator of how severe an epidemic outbreak can be. This…
Traditional mathematical models of epidemic disease had for decades conventionally considered static structure for contacts. Recently, an upsurge of theoretical inquiry has strived towards rendering the models more realistic by…
Coinfection is the process by which a host that is infected with a pathogen becomes infected by a second pathogen at a later point in time. An immunosuppressant host response to a primary disease can facilitate spreading of a subsequent…
The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We…
Stochastic modeling of disease dynamics has had a long tradition. Among the first epidemic models including a spatial structure in the form of local interactions is the contact process. In this article we investigate two extensions of the…
Epidemic outbreaks of new pathogens, or known pathogens in new populations, cause a great deal of fear because they are hard to predict. For theoretical models of disease spreading, on the other hand, quantities characterizing the outbreak…
Human mobility forms the backbone of contact patterns through which infectious diseases propagate, fundamentally shaping the spatio-temporal dynamics of epidemics and pandemics. While traditional models are often based on the assumption…