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In Causal Bayesian Optimization (CBO), an agent intervenes on an unknown structural causal model to maximize a downstream reward variable. In this paper, we consider the generalization where other agents or external events also intervene on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-02 Scott Sussex , Pier Giuseppe Sessa , Anastasiia Makarova , Andreas Krause

Compiler auto-tuning faces a dichotomy between traditional black-box search methods, which lack semantic guidance, and recent Large Language Model (LLM) approaches, which often suffer from superficial pattern matching and causal opacity. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Haolin Pan , Lianghong Huang , Jinyuan Dong , Mingjie Xing , Yanjun Wu

Identifying the causal relationship among variables from observational data is an important yet challenging task. This work focuses on identifying the direct causes of an outcome and estimating their magnitude, i.e., learning the causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-08 Zhenyu Wang , Yifan Hu , Peter Bühlmann , Zijian Guo

Causal Bayesian Optimization (CBO) is a methodology designed to optimize an outcome variable by leveraging known causal relationships through targeted interventions. Traditional CBO methods require a fully and accurately specified causal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-26 Jean Durand , Yashas Annadani , Stefan Bauer , Sonali Parbhoo

Contextual stochastic optimization is an advanced methodology to model uncertainty in the presence of contextual information during decision planning processes. Although classical methodologies focus on minimizing the expectation of a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-11-24 Man Yiu Tsang , Tony Sit , Hoi Ying Wong

Causal effect estimation is important for many tasks in the natural and social sciences. We design algorithms for the continuous partial identification problem: bounding the effects of multivariate, continuous treatments when unmeasured…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-18 Kirtan Padh , Jakob Zeitler , David Watson , Matt Kusner , Ricardo Silva , Niki Kilbertus

Combinatorial optimization augmented machine learning (COAML) has recently emerged as a powerful paradigm for integrating predictive models with combinatorial decision-making. By embedding combinatorial optimization oracles into learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-16 Maximilian Schiffer , Heiko Hoppe , Yue Su , Louis Bouvier , Axel Parmentier

The educational competition optimizer is a recently introduced metaheuristic algorithm inspired by human behavior, originating from the dynamics of educational competition within society. Nonetheless, ECO faces constraints due to an…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Baoqi Zhao , Xiong Yang , Hoileong Lee , Bowen Dong

Contextual optimization, also known as predict-then-optimize or prescriptive analytics, considers an optimization problem with the presence of covariates (context or side information). The goal is to learn a prediction model (from the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-05-13 Chunlin Sun , Linyu Liu , Xiaocheng Li

This paper introduces an enhanced meta-heuristic (ML-ACO) that combines machine learning (ML) and ant colony optimization (ACO) to solve combinatorial optimization problems. To illustrate the underlying mechanism of our ML-ACO algorithm, we…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2021-11-09 Yuan Sun , Sheng Wang , Yunzhuang Shen , Xiaodong Li , Andreas T. Ernst , Michael Kirley

While witnessing the exceptional success of machine learning (ML) technologies in many applications, users are starting to notice a critical shortcoming of ML: correlation is a poor substitute for causation. The conventional way to discover…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-26 Ahmet Kapkiç , Pratanu Mandal , Shu Wan , Paras Sheth , Abhinav Gorantla , Yoonhyuk Choi , Huan Liu , K. Selçuk Candan

Offline model-based optimization (MBO) refers to the task of optimizing a black-box objective function using only a fixed set of prior input-output data, without any active experimentation. Recent work has introduced quantum extremal…

Causal estimands can vary significantly depending on the relationship between outcomes in treatment and control groups, potentially leading to wide partial identification (PI) intervals that impede decision making. Incorporating covariates…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-02 Sirui Lin , Zijun Gao , Jose Blanchet , Peter Glynn

Matching on covariates is a well-established framework for estimating causal effects in observational studies. The principal challenge stems from the often high-dimensional structure of the problem. Many methods have been introduced to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-12 Florian Gunsilius , Yuliang Xu

We study the problem of globally optimizing the causal effect on a target variable of an unknown causal graph in which interventions can be performed. This problem arises in many areas of science including biology, operations research and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-26 Nicola Branchini , Virginia Aglietti , Neil Dhir , Theodoros Damoulas

This paper introduces a novel decomposition framework to explain heterogeneity in causal effects observed across different studies, considering both observational and randomized settings. We present a formal decomposition of between-study…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-18 Brian Gilbert , Ivan Dıaz , Kara E. Rudolph , Nicholas Williams , Tat-Thang Vo

Causal machine learning (CML) has experienced increasing popularity in healthcare. Beyond the inherent capabilities of adding domain knowledge into learning systems, CML provides a complete toolset for investigating how a system would react…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-01 Pedro Sanchez , Jeremy P. Voisey , Tian Xia , Hannah I. Watson , Alison Q. ONeil , Sotirios A. Tsaftaris

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly embedded in enterprise workflows, yet their performance remains highly sensitive to prompt design. Automatic Prompt Optimization (APO) seeks to mitigate this instability, but existing approaches…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Wei Chen , Yanbin Fang , Shuran Fu , Fasheng Xu , Xuan Wei

Estimating causal effects from nonexperimental data is a fundamental problem in many fields of science. A key component of this task is selecting an appropriate set of covariates for confounding adjustment to avoid bias. Most existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Zheng Li , Xichen Guo , Feng Xie , Yan Zeng , Hao Zhang , Zhi Geng