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Estimating failure probabilities of engineering systems is an important problem in many engineering fields. In this work we consider such problems where the failure probability is extremely small (e.g $\leq10^{-10}$). In this case, standard…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-05-24 Xinjuan Chen , Jinglai Li

Real-time dispatch practices for operating the electric grid in an economic and reliable manner are evolving to accommodate higher levels of renewable energy generation. In particular, stochastic optimization is receiving increased…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-06-28 Ryan N. King , Matthew Reynolds , Devon Sigler , Wesley Jones

Methods for generating sequences of surrogates approximating fine scale models of two-phase random heterogeneous media are presented that are designed to adaptively control the modeling error in key quantities of interest (QoIs). For…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-03-07 Laura Scarabosio , Barbara Wohlmuth , J. Tinsley Oden , Danial Faghihi

The positive weight next-to-leading-order (NLO) matching scheme (POWHEG) is applied to Drell-Yan vector boson production in the Herwig++ Monte Carlo event generator. This approach consistently combines the NLO calculation and parton shower…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2008-11-26 Keith Hamilton , Peter Richardson , Jon Tully

We describe the universal Monte-Carlo event generator WHIZARD. The program automatically computes complete tree-level matrix elements, integrates them over phase space, evaluates distributions of observables, and generates unweighted event…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2011-11-16 Wolfgang Kilian , Thorsten Ohl , Jurgen Reuter

Monte Carlo estimation in plays a crucial role in stochastic reaction networks. However, reducing the statistical uncertainty of the corresponding estimators requires sampling a large number of trajectories. We propose control variates…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-19 Michael Backenköhler , Luca Bortolussi , Verena Wolf

We present powerful new analysis techniques to constrain effective field theories at the LHC. By leveraging the structure of particle physics processes, we extract extra information from Monte-Carlo simulations, which can be used to train…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2018-09-19 Johann Brehmer , Kyle Cranmer , Gilles Louppe , Juan Pavez

Importance sampling is a rare event simulation technique used in Monte Carlo simulations to bias the sampling distribution towards the rare event of interest. By assigning appropriate weights to sampled points, importance sampling allows…

The AcerMC Monte Carlo generator gives a possibility to generate some of the Standard Model background processes which were recognised as very dangerous for the searches at LHC, and generation of which was either unavailable or not…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2009-11-07 Borut Paul Kersevan , Elzbieta Richter-Was

Highly reliable Monte-Carlo event generators and detector simulation programs are important for the precision measurement in the high energy physics. Huge amounts of computing resources are required to produce a sufficient number of…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2021-02-24 Suyong Choi , Jae Hoon Lim

Modern macroeconometrics often relies on time series models for which it is time-consuming to evaluate the likelihood function. We demonstrate how Bayesian computations for such models can be drastically accelerated by reweighting and…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-09-10 Marko Mlikota , Frank Schorfheide

Latent Gaussian models have a rich history in statistics and machine learning, with applications ranging from factor analysis to compressed sensing to time series analysis. The classical method for maximizing the likelihood of these models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-07 Alexander Lin , Bahareh Tolooshams , Yves Atchadé , Demba Ba

Network representation learning (NRL) technique has been successfully adopted in various data mining and machine learning applications. Random walk based NRL is one popular paradigm, which uses a set of random walks to capture the network…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-12 Xingyu Yao , Yingxia Shao , Bin Cui , Lei Chen

In Part I (arXiv:1911.00619) of this article, we proposed an importance sampling algorithm to compute rare-event probabilities in forward uncertainty quantification problems. The algorithm, which we termed the "Bayesian Inverse Monte Carlo…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-06 Siddhant Wahal , George Biros

We introduce a variant of the Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm to address large-deviation statistics in stochastic hydrodynamics. Based on the path-integral approach to stochastic (partial) differential equations, our HMC algorithm…

Computational Physics · Physics 2019-10-29 G. Margazoglou , L. Biferale , R. Grauer , K. Jansen , D. Mesterházy , T. Rosenow , R. Tripiccione

We propose an efficient Monte Carlo algorithm for the off-lattice simulation of dense hard sphere polymer melts using cluster moves, called event chains, which allow for a rejection-free treatment of the excluded volume. Event chains also…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2015-09-24 Tobias Alexander Kampmann , Horst-Holger Boltz , Jan Kierfeld

We present a general sample reweighting scheme and its underlying theory for the integration of an unknown function with low dimensionality. Our method produces better results than standard weighting schemes for common sampling strategies,…

Graphics · Computer Science 2019-08-07 Jerry Jinfeng Guo , Elmar Eisemann

The JETSCAPE Collaboration has recently announced the first release of the JETSCAPE package that provides a modular, flexible, and extensible Monte Carlo event generator. This innovative framework makes it possible to perform a…

This paper considers the challenging computational task of estimating nested expectations. Existing algorithms, such as nested Monte Carlo or multilevel Monte Carlo, are known to be consistent but require a large number of samples at both…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-05 Zonghao Chen , Masha Naslidnyk , François-Xavier Briol

In this paper, we propose an efficient simulation method based on adaptive importance sampling, which can automatically find the optimal proposal within the Gaussian family based on previous samples, to evaluate the probability of bit error…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-08 Xiongwen Ke , Houying Zhu , Kai Yi , Gaoning He , Ganghua Yang , Yu Guang Wang