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Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) is a popular framework for estimating a causal effect in settings where treatment is assigned if an observed covariate exceeds a fixed threshold. We consider estimation and inference in the common…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-16 Kevin Tao , Y. Samuel Wang , David Ruppert

An important task in drug development is to identify patients, which respond better or worse to an experimental treatment. Identifying predictive covariates, which influence the treatment effect and can be used to define subgroups of…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-11-27 Marius Thomas , Björn Bornkamp , Katja Ickstadt

Causal inference is capable of estimating the treatment effect (i.e., the causal effect of treatment on the outcome) to benefit the decision making in various domains. One fundamental challenge in this research is that the treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-28 Qian Li , Zhichao Wang , Shaowu Liu , Gang Li , Guandong Xu

Estimating the causal effect of time-varying treatments on survival outcomes is a challenging task in many domains, particularly in medicine where treatment protocols adapt over time. While recent advances in representation learning have…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-06 Ayoub Abraich

We develop and evaluate tolerance interval methods for dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) that can provide more detailed prognostic information to patients who will follow an estimated optimal regime. Although the problem of constructing…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-26 Daniel J. Lizotte , Arezoo Tahmasebi

Causal inference methods are widely applied in the fields of medicine, policy, and economics. Central to these applications is the estimation of treatment effects to make decisions. Current methods make binary yes-or-no decisions based on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-24 Will Y. Zou , Smitha Shyam , Michael Mui , Mingshi Wang , Jan Pedersen , Zoubin Ghahramani

A main research goal in various studies is to use an observational data set and provide a new set of counterfactual guidelines that can yield causal improvements. Dynamic Treatment Regimes (DTRs) are widely studied to formalize this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-06 Soroush Saghafian

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in survival settings is complicated by right censoring as well as the time-varying nature of the estimand. While the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) provides a natural target, most…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-14 Yuming Sun , Jian Kang , Yi Li

Assessing causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding is a challenging problem. Existing studies leveraged proxy variables or multiple treatments to adjust for the confounding bias. In particular, the latter approach attributes…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-17 Yong Wu , Mingzhou Liu , Jing Yan , Yanwei Fu , Shouyan Wang , Yizhou Wang , Xinwei Sun

There is wide interest in studying how the distribution of a continuous response changes with a predictor. We are motivated by environmental applications in which the predictor is the dose of an exposure and the response is a health…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-10 Antonio Canale , Daniele Durante , David Dunson

We study identification and estimation of causal effects in settings with panel data. Traditionally researchers follow model-based identification strategies relying on assumptions governing the relation between the potential outcomes and…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-02-18 Dmitry Arkhangelsky , Guido W. Imbens

Understanding and quantifying cause and effect is an important problem in many domains. The generally-agreed solution to this problem is to perform a randomised controlled trial. However, even when randomised controlled trials can be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-22 Graham Van Goffrier , Lucas Maystre , Ciarán Gilligan-Lee

We consider the problem of estimating the expected causal effect $E[Y|do(X)]$ for a target variable $Y$ when treatment $X$ is set by intervention, focusing on continuous random variables. In settings without selection bias or confounding,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-27 Marlies Hafer , Alexander Marx

Estimating an individual's potential response to continuously varied treatments is crucial for addressing causal questions across diverse domains, from healthcare to social sciences. However, existing methods are limited either to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Shutong Chen , Yang Li

We propose a reinforcement learning method for estimating an optimal dynamic treatment regime for survival outcomes with dependent censoring. The estimator allows the failure time to be conditionally independent of censoring and dependent…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-13 Hunyong Cho , Shannon T. Holloway , David J. Couper , Michael R. Kosorok

Estimating treatment effects, especially individualized treatment effects (ITE), using observational data is challenging due to the complex situations of confounding bias. Existing approaches for estimating treatment effects from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-26 Zheng Feng , Mattia Prosperi , Jiang Bian

Clinicians and researchers alike are increasingly interested in how best to personalize interventions. A dynamic treatment regimen (DTR) is a sequence of pre-specified decision rules which can be used to guide the delivery of a sequence of…

A dynamic treatment regime is a sequence of medical decisions that adapts to the evolving clinical status of a patient over time. To facilitate personalized care, it is crucial to assess the probability of each available treatment option…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-05 Jiefeng Bi , Matteo Borrotti , Bernardo Nipoti

Dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) are sequences of decision rules designed to tailor treatment based on patients' treatment history and evolving disease status. Ordinal outcomes frequently serve as primary endpoints in clinical trials and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-11 Xinru Wang , Tanujit Chakraborty , Bibhas Chakraborty

This paper proposes a variational Bayes algorithm for computationally efficient posterior and predictive inference in time-varying parameter (TVP) models. Within this context we specify a new dynamic variable/model selection strategy for…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-23 Gary Koop , Dimitris Korobilis