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A discrete statistical model is a subset of a probability simplex. Its maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is a retraction from that simplex onto the model. We characterize all models for which this retraction is a rational function. This is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-16 Eliana Duarte , Orlando Marigliano , Bernd Sturmfels

Maximum Likelihood Estimators (MLE) has many good properties. For example, the asymptotic variance of MLE solution attains equality of the asymptotic Cram{\'e}r-Rao lower bound (efficiency bound), which is the minimum possible variance for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-05 Song Liu , Takafumi Kanamori , Wittawat Jitkrittum , Yu Chen

Asymptotic efficiency of targeted maximum likelihood estimators (TMLE) of target features of the data distribution relies on a a second order remainder being asymptotically negligible. In previous work we proposed a nonparametric MLE termed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-07-02 Mark van der Laan , Zeyi Wang , Lars van der Laan

Latent class models are powerful statistical modeling tools widely used in psychological, behavioral, and social sciences. In the modern era of data science, researchers often have access to response data collected from large-scale surveys…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-08 Zhenghao Zeng , Yuqi Gu , Gongjun Xu

We propose a novel targeted maximum likelihood estimator (TMLE) for quantiles in semiparametric missing data models. Our proposed estimator is locally efficient, $\sqrt{n}$-consistent, asymptotically normal, and doubly robust, under…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-08-23 Iván Díaz

Consider a parametrized family of general hidden Markov models, where both the observed and unobserved components take values in a complete separable metric space. We prove that the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the parameter is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-03-10 Randal Douc , Eric Moulines , Jimmy Olsson , Ramon van Handel

For a multinomial distribution, suppose that we have prior knowledge of the sum of the probabilities of some categories. This allows us to construct a submodel in a full (i.e., no-restriction) model. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-07 Yo Sheena

Estimating model parameters is a crucial step in mathematical modelling and typically involves minimizing the disagreement between model predictions and experimental data. This calibration data can change throughout a study, particularly if…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2023-11-03 Tyler Cassidy

In order to learn the complex features of large spatio-temporal data, models with large parameter sets are often required. However, estimating a large number of parameters is often infeasible due to the computational and memory costs of…

Computation · Statistics 2018-07-02 Matthew Edwards , Stefano Castruccio , Dorit Hammerling

The Mutual Information (MI) is an often used measure of dependency between two random variables utilized in information theory, statistics and machine learning. Recently several MI estimators have been proposed that can achieve parametric…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2018-11-26 Morteza Noshad , Yu Zeng , Alfred O. Hero

We consider a general multivariate model where univariate marginal distributions are known up to a parameter vector and we are interested in estimating that parameter vector without specifying the joint distribution, except for the…

General Economics · Economics 2024-02-01 Ivan Medovikov , Valentyn Panchenko , Artem Prokhorov

We show that the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is an effective tool for mitigating non-flow effects in flow analysis. To this end, one constructs two toy models that simulate non-flow contributions corresponding to particle decay and…

Modeling sparse data such as microbiome and transcriptomics (RNA-seq) data is very challenging due to the exceeded number of zeros and skewness of the distribution. Many probabilistic models have been used for modeling sparse data,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-30 Hani Aldirawi , Jie Yang

Distributed learning of probabilistic models from multiple data repositories with minimum communication is increasingly important. We study a simple communication-efficient learning framework that first calculates the local maximum…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-10-13 Qiang Liu , Alexander Ihler

In this paper, we study sample size thresholds for maximum likelihood estimation for tensor normal models. Given the model parameters and the number of samples, we determine whether, almost surely, (1) the likelihood function is bounded…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-02-09 Harm Derksen , Visu Makam , Michael Walter

Bogdan et al. established a new criterion to determine the existence of a maximum likelihood estimator in discrete exponential families. It uses the notion of the set of uniqueness, which allows to apply the problem to the Ising model from…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-27 Tomasz Skalski , Tomasz Stroiński

Mixture of autoregressions (MoAR) models provide a model-based approach to the clustering of time series data. The maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of MoAR models requires the evaluation of products of large numbers of densities of normal…

Computation · Statistics 2016-10-19 Hien D Nguyen , Geoffrey J McLachlan , Pierre Orban , Pierre Bellec , Andrew L Janke

We study the consistency and optimality of the maximum marginal likelihood estimate (MMLE) in the hyperparameter inference for large-degree-of-freedom models. We perform main analyses within the exponential family, where the natural…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-05-27 Dye SK Sato , Yukitoshi Fukahata

Finite mixture models are widely used in econometric analyses to capture unobserved heterogeneity. This paper shows that maximum likelihood estimation of finite mixtures of parametric densities can suffer from substantial finite-sample bias…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-04 Raphaël Langevin

This paper considers the maximum likelihood estimation of factor models of high dimension, where the number of variables (N) is comparable with or even greater than the number of observations (T). An inferential theory is developed. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-05-31 Jushan Bai , Kunpeng Li