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Unmeasured covariates constitute one of the important problems in causal inference. Even if there are some unmeasured covariates, some instrumental variable methods such as a two-stage residual inclusion (2SRI) estimator, or a…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-30 Shunichiro Orihara

This paper presents a general and efficient framework for probabilistic inference and learning from arbitrary uncertain information. It exploits the calculation properties of finite mixture models, conjugate families and factorization. Both…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2011-05-19 M. C. Garrido , P. E. Lopez-de-Teruel , A. Ruiz

Robust model-fitting to spectroscopic transitions is a requirement across many fields of science. The corrected Akaike and Bayesian information criteria (AICc and BIC) are most frequently used to select the optimal number of fitting…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2020-11-25 John K. Webb , Chung-Chi Lee , Robert F. Carswell , Dinko Milaković

Determining how to appropriately select the tuning parameter is essential in penalized likelihood methods for high-dimensional data analysis. We examine this problem in the setting of penalized likelihood methods for generalized linear…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-05-12 Yingying Fan , Cheng Yong Tang

After selection with the Group LASSO (or generalized variants such as the overlapping, sparse, or standardized Group LASSO), inference for the selected parameters is unreliable in the absence of adjustments for selection bias. In the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-16 Snigdha Panigrahi , Peter W. MacDonald , Daniel Kessler

The inferential model (IM) framework provides valid prior-free probabilistic inference by focusing on predicting unobserved auxiliary variables. But, efficient IM-based inference can be challenging when the auxiliary variable is of higher…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-01-20 Ryan Martin , Chuanhai Liu

In a first part, we present a mathematical analysis of a general methodology of a probabilistic learning inference that allows for estimating a posterior probability model for a stochastic boundary value problem from a prior probability…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-08 Christian Soize

For propensity score analysis and sparse estimation, we develop an information criterion for determining the regularization parameters needed in variable selection. First, for Gaussian distribution-based causal inference models, we extend…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-22 Yoshiyuki Ninomiya

This paper proposes an information-based inference method for partially identified parameters in incomplete models that is valid both when the model is correctly specified and when it is misspecified. Key features of the method are: (i) it…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-25 Hiroaki Kaido , Francesca Molinari

Dynamic factor models are often estimated by point-estimation methods, disregarding parameter uncertainty. We propose a method accounting for parameter uncertainty by means of posterior approximation, using variational inference. Our…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-14 Erik Spånberg

Error propagation formulae are derived for the expectation-maximization iterative unfolding algorithm regularized by a smoothing step. The effective number of parameters in the fit to the observed data is defined for unfolding procedures.…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-01-13 Igor Volobouev

Many model search strategies involve trading off model fit with model complexity in a penalized goodness of fit measure. Asymptotic properties for these types of procedures in settings like linear regression and ARMA time series have been…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-08-08 Jiming Jiang , J. Sunil Rao , Zhonghua Gu , Thuan Nguyen

We discuss Bayesian inference for parameters selected using the data. First, we provide a critical analysis of the existing positions in the literature regarding the correct Bayesian approach under selection. Second, we propose two types of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-12 Daniel G. Rasines , G. Alastair Young

Occupancy models are typically used to determine the probability of a species being present at a given site while accounting for imperfect detection. The survey data underlying these models often include information on several predictors…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-05-09 Daniel Taylor-Rodriguez , Andrew Womack , Claudio Fuentes , Nikolay Bliznyuk

The information criterion for determining the number of explanatory variables in a subset regression modeling is discussed. Information criterion such as AIC is effective and frequently used in model selection for ordinary regression models…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-18 Genshiro Kitagawa

Inference after model selection has been an active research topic in the past few years, with numerous works offering different approaches to addressing the perils of the reuse of data. In particular, major progress has been made recently…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-02 Snigdha Panigrahi , Jonathan Taylor , Asaf Weinstein

Suppose that one can construct a valid $(1-\delta)$-confidence interval (CI) for each of $K$ parameters of potential interest. If a data analyst uses an arbitrary data-dependent criterion to select some subset $S$ of parameters, then the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-07-02 Ziyu Xu , Ruodu Wang , Aaditya Ramdas

I develop a methodology to partially identify linear combinations of conditional mean outcomes when the researcher only has access to aggregate data. Unlike the existing literature, I only allow for marginal, not joint, distributions of…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-04 Sarah Moon

Linear mixed-effects models are widely used in analyzing clustered or repeated measures data. We propose a quasi-likelihood approach for estimation and inference of the unknown parameters in linear mixed-effects models with high-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-10 Sai Li , Tony T. Cai , Hongzhe Li

The selection of optimal designs for generalized linear mixed models is complicated by the fact that the Fisher information matrix, on which most optimality criteria depend, is computationally expensive to evaluate. Our focus is on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-09-22 Timothy W. Waite , David C. Woods