Related papers: Flexible and efficient Bayesian pharmacometrics mo…

We study the foundations of variational inference, which frames posterior inference as an optimisation problem, for probabilistic programming. The dominant approach for optimisation in practice is stochastic gradient descent. In particular,…

When does a deterministic computational model define a probability distribution? What are its properties? This work formalises and settles this stochasticity problem for weighted automata, and its generalisation cost register automata…

Ensembles of decision trees are a useful tool for obtaining for obtaining flexible estimates of regression functions. Examples of these methods include gradient boosted decision trees, random forests, and Bayesian CART. Two potential…

Computer experiments are becoming increasingly important in scientific investigations. In the presence of uncertainty, analysts employ probabilistic sensitivity methods to identify the key-drivers of change in the quantities of interest.…

Parameter inference is a fundamental problem in data-driven modeling. Given observed data that is believed to be a realization of some parameterized model, the aim is to find parameter values that are able to explain the observed data. In…

Edit-based approaches have recently shown promising results on multiple monolingual sequence transduction tasks. In contrast to conventional sequence-to-sequence (Seq2Seq) models, which learn to generate text from scratch as they are…

$\alpha$-stable distributions are utilised as models for heavy-tailed noise in many areas of statistics, finance and signal processing engineering. However, in general, neither univariate nor multivariate $\alpha$-stable models admit closed…

BayesPy is an open-source Python software package for performing variational Bayesian inference. It is based on the variational message passing framework and supports conjugate exponential family models. By removing the tedious task of…

The INLA package provides a tool for computationally efficient Bayesian modeling and inference for various widely used models, more formally the class of latent Gaussian models. It is a non-sampling based framework which provides…

Models defined by stochastic differential equations (SDEs) allow for the representation of random variability in dynamical systems. The relevance of this class of models is growing in many applied research areas and is already a standard…

Datasets with hundreds of variables and many missing values are commonplace. In this setting, it is both statistically and computationally challenging to detect true predictive relationships between variables and also to suppress false…

This paper presents a Bayesian generative model for dependent Cox point processes, alongside an efficient inference scheme which scales as if the point processes were modelled independently. We can handle missing data naturally, infer…

Probabilistic programming has emerged as a powerful paradigm in statistics, applied science, and machine learning: by decoupling modelling from inference, it promises to allow modellers to directly reason about the processes generating…

When using R package tmbstan for Bayesian inference, the built-in feature Laplace approximation to the marginal likelihood with random effects integrated out can be switched on and off. There exists no guideline on whether Laplace…

Bayesian statistics plays a pivotal role in advancing medical science by enabling healthcare companies, regulators, and stakeholders to assess the safety and efficacy of new treatments, interventions, and medical procedures. The Bayesian…

Optimization-based samplers such as randomize-then-optimize (RTO) [2] provide an efficient and parallellizable approach to solving large-scale Bayesian inverse problems. These methods solve randomly perturbed optimization problems to draw…

The Bayesian approach to machine learning amounts to computing posterior distributions of random variables from a probabilistic model of how the variables are related (that is, a prior distribution) and a set of observations of variables.…

Robust Bayesian inference is the calculation of posterior probability bounds given perturbations in a probabilistic model. This paper focuses on perturbations that can be expressed locally in Bayesian networks through convex sets of…

In the realm of supervised learning, Bayesian learning has shown robust predictive capabilities under input and parameter perturbations. Inspired by these findings, we demonstrate the robustness properties of Bayesian learning in the…

The Apache Spark stack has enabled fast large-scale data processing. Despite a rich library of statistical models and inference algorithms, it does not give domain users the ability to develop their own models. The emergence of…