Related papers: Evolution of topics in central bank speech communi…
Communication is now a standard tool in the central bank's monetary policy toolkit. Theoretically, communication provides the central bank an opportunity to guide public expectations, and it has been shown empirically that central bank…
We examine the affective content of central bank press statements using emotion analysis. Our focus is on two major international players, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), covering a time span from 1998…
Understanding how policy language evolves over time is critical for assessing global responses to complex challenges such as climate change. Temporal analysis helps stakeholders, including policymakers and researchers, to evaluate past…
We use natural-language-processing algorithms on a novel dataset of over 900 presidential speeches from ten Latin American countries spanning two centuries to study the dynamics and determinants of presidential policy priorities. We show…
The effectiveness of central bank communication is a crucial aspect of monetary policy transmission. While recent research has examined the influence of policy communication by the chairs of the Federal Reserve on various financial…
Central banks around the world play a crucial role in maintaining economic stability. Deciphering policy implications in their communications is essential, especially as misinterpretations can disproportionately impact vulnerable…
Despite the multi-turn open-domain dialogue systems have attracted more and more attention and made great progress, the existing dialogue systems are still very boring. Nearly all the existing dialogue models only provide a response when…
In our world with full of uncertainty, debates and argumentation contribute to the progress of science and society. Despite of the increasing attention to characterize human arguments, most progress made so far focus on the debate outcome,…
Topic models and all their variants analyse text by learning meaningful representations through word co-occurrences. As pointed out by Williamson et al. (2010), such models implicitly assume that the probability of a topic to be active and…
In meetings where important decisions get made, what items receive more attention may influence the outcome. We examine how different types of rhetorical (de-)emphasis -- including hedges, superlatives, and contrastive conjunctions --…
We analyze the impact of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy communications on Indian financial market from April 2014 to June 2024 using advanced natural language processing techniques. Employing BERTopic for topic modeling…
This paper proposes a modeling framework for dynamic topic evolution based on temporal large language models. The method first uses a large language model to obtain contextual embeddings of text and then introduces a temporal decay function…
Languages emerge and change over time at the population level though interactions between individual speakers. It is, however, hard to directly observe how a single speaker's linguistic innovation precipitates a population-wide change in…
Language model representations often contain linear directions that correspond to high-level concepts. Here, we study the dynamics of these representations: how representations evolve along these dimensions within the context of (simulated)…
In this study, we analyze documents published by central banks using text mining techniques and propose a method to evaluate the policy tone of central banks. Since the monetary policies of major central banks have a broad impact on…
Central banks cannot observe market reactions to their communications before release. We propose a framework in which Large Language Models simulate 30 heterogeneous traders interpreting European Central Bank press conference transcripts,…
The speeches stated by influential politicians can have a decisive impact on the future of a country. In particular, the economic content of such speeches affects the economy of countries and their financial markets. For this reason, we…
We propose a flexible probabilistic model for predicting turn-taking patterns in group conversations based solely on individual characteristics and past speaking behavior. Many models of conversation dynamics cannot yield insights that…
Transitioning between topics is a natural component of human-human dialog. Although topic transition has been studied in dialogue for decades, only a handful of corpora based studies have been performed to investigate the subtleties of…
Human communication systems, such as language, evolve culturally; their components undergo reproduction and variation. However, a role for selection in cultural evolutionary dynamics is less clear. Often neutral evolution (also known as…